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Who’s ahead in the California Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 5, 2022

U.S. Senate, California, 2022

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Padilla
53%
Padilla
53%

Padilla

53%

Meuser

37%
37%
Meuser  Padilla+16
450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Padilla
53%
Padilla
53%

Padilla

53%

Meuser

37%
37%
Meuser  Padilla+16

Nov. 1, 2022

Oct. 19, 2022

U.S. Senate, California, 2022

208LV
Jul.22-Oct.20
208LV
Padilla
65%
Padilla
65%

Padilla

65%

Meuser

35%
35%
Meuser  Padilla+30

Oct. 9, 2022

U.S. Senate, California, 2022

1,013LV
Oct.7-10
1,013LV
Padilla
56%
Padilla
56%

Padilla

56%

Meuser

34%
34%
Meuser  Padilla+22
1,013LV
Oct.7-10
1,013LV
Padilla
56%
Padilla
56%

Padilla

56%

Meuser

34%
34%
Meuser  Padilla+22

Nov. 3, 2018

U.S. Senate, California, 2018

1,108LV
Nov.2-4
1,108LV
Feinstein
42%
Feinstein
42%

Feinstein

42%

de Leon

32%
32%
de Leon  Feinstein+10
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

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Campaign poll

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