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Who’s ahead in the Illinois Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 5, 2022

U.S. Senate, Illinois, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Duckworth
58%
Duckworth
58%

Duckworth

58%

Salvi

40%
40%
Salvi  Duckworth+18

Oct. 24, 2022

U.S. Senate, Illinois, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

659LV
Oct.22-25
659LV
Duckworth
56%
Duckworth
56%

Duckworth

56%

Salvi

40%
40%
Salvi  Duckworth+16

Oct. 23, 2022

U.S. Senate, Illinois, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,000LV
Oct.20-24
1,000LV
Duckworth
49%
Duckworth
49%

Duckworth

49%

Salvi

39%

Redpath

2%
39%
SalviDuckworth+10

Oct. 10, 2022

U.S. Senate, Illinois, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

770LV
Oct.10-11
770LV
Duckworth
50%
Duckworth
50%

Duckworth

50%

Salvi

36%

Redpath

5%
36%
SalviDuckworth+14
1,000RV
Oct.5-11
1,000RV
Duckworth
48%
Duckworth
48%

Duckworth

48%

Salvi

29%

Redpath

6%
29%
SalviDuckworth+20

Sept. 22, 2022

U.S. Senate, Illinois, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,000LV
Sep.21-23
1,000LV
Duckworth
50%
Duckworth
50%

Duckworth

50%

Salvi

31%
31%
Salvi  Duckworth+19
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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