UPDATED Dec. 20, 2021, at 9:50 AM

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Who’s ahead in Iowa?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Dec 2-13, 2021
770 LV
Dec 2-13, 2021
770LVFinkenauer
39%

Finkenauer

39%

Grassley

53%
53%
GrassleyGrassley+14

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Oct. 24, 2021

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Oct 18-19, 2021
600 LV
Oct 18-19, 2021
600LVFinkenauer
39%

Finkenauer

39%

Grassley

55%
55%
GrassleyGrassley+17

Sept. 20, 2021

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Sep 12-15, 2021
620 LV
Sep 12-15, 2021
620LVFinkenauer
37%

Finkenauer

37%

Grassley

55%
55%
GrassleyGrassley+18

Nov. 1, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Nov 1-2, 2020
871 V
Nov 1-2, 2020
871VGreenfield
48%

Greenfield

48%

Ernst

47%
47%
ErnstGreenfield+1
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
1,084 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
1,084LVGreenfield
48%

Greenfield

48%

Ernst

47%

Stewart

2%

Herzog

0%
MoreGreenfield+1
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
951 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
951LVGreenfield
49%

Greenfield

49%

Ernst

45%

Herzog

3%

Stewart

2%
MoreGreenfield+4

Oct. 31, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
853 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
853LVGreenfield
50%

Greenfield

50%

Ernst

47%

Stewart

1%

Herzog

0%
MoreGreenfield+3
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Oct 29-31, 2020
604 LV
Oct 29-31, 2020
604LVGreenfield
51%

Greenfield

51%

Ernst

48%
48%
ErnstGreenfield+3
U.S. Senate
Iowa Iowa
Oct 30, 2020
400 LV
Oct 30, 2020
400LVGreenfield
45%

Greenfield

45%

Ernst

51%

Stewart

1%

Herzog

1%
MoreErnst+6
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