UPDATED Aug. 9, 2022, at 3:43 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Minnesota Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 31, 2020

U.S. Senate, Minnesota, 2020

450LV
Oct.31-Nov.1
450LV
Smith
50%
Smith
50%

Smith

50%

Lewis

39%
39%
Lewis  Smith+11
1,259LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
1,259LV
Smith
54%
Smith
54%

Smith

54%

Lewis

44%
44%
Lewis  Smith+10
430LV
Oct.23-Nov.1
430LV
Smith
55%
Smith
55%

Smith

55%

Lewis

46%
46%
Lewis  Smith+9

Oct. 29, 2020

U.S. Senate, Minnesota, 2020

770V
Oct.29-30
770V
Smith
51%
Smith
51%

Smith

51%

Lewis

42%
42%
Lewis  Smith+9
1,138LV
Oct.25-30
1,138LV
Smith
53%
Smith
53%

Smith

53%

Lewis

44%
44%
Lewis  Smith+9

Oct. 28, 2020

U.S. Senate, Minnesota, 2020

372A
Oct.10-29
372A
Smith
53%
Smith
53%

Smith

53%

Lewis

36%
36%
Lewis  Smith+17

Oct. 26, 2020

Oct. 25, 2020

U.S. Senate, Minnesota, 2020

657LV
Oct.24-26
657LV
Smith
53%
Smith
53%

Smith

53%

Lewis

39%
39%
Lewis  Smith+14
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