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Who’s ahead in the Ohio Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Aug. 23, 2021

U.S. Senate, Ohio, 2022

1,200LV
Aug.20-24
1,200LV
Ryan
37%
Ryan
37%

Ryan

37%

Mandel

41%
41%
Mandel  Mandel+4
1,200LV
Aug.20-24
1,200LV
Ryan
38%
Ryan
38%

Ryan

38%

Timken

36%
36%
Timken  Ryan+2
1,200LV
Aug.20-24
1,200LV
Ryan
37%
Ryan
37%

Ryan

37%

Vance

36%
36%
Vance  Ryan+1
1,200RV
Aug.20-24
1,200RV
Ryan
36%
Ryan
36%

Ryan

36%

Mandel

38%
38%
Mandel  Mandel+2
1,200RV
Aug.20-24
1,200RV
Ryan
36%
Ryan
36%

Ryan

36%

Timken

33%
33%
Timken  Ryan+3
1,200RV
Aug.20-24
1,200RV
Ryan
36%
Ryan
36%

Ryan

36%

Vance

33%
33%
Vance  Ryan+3

March 18, 2021

U.S. Senate, Ohio, 2022

700V
Mar.18-19
700V
Ryan
37%
Ryan
37%

Ryan

37%

Vance

39%
39%
Vance  Vance+2
700V
Mar.18-19
700V
Ryan
38%
Ryan
38%

Ryan

38%

Timken

41%
41%
Timken  Timken+3
700V
Mar.18-19
700V
Ryan
38%
Ryan
38%

Ryan

38%

Mandel

42%
42%
Mandel  Mandel+4
700V
Mar.18-19
700V
Acton
40%
Acton
40%

Acton

40%

Vance

38%
38%
Vance  Acton+2
700V
Mar.18-19
700V
Acton
40%
Acton
40%

Acton

40%

Timken

40%
40%
Timken  Even
700V
Mar.18-19
700V
Acton
42%
Acton
42%

Acton

42%

Mandel

41%
41%
Mandel  Acton+1

Nov. 3, 2018

U.S. Senate, Ohio, 2018

923LV
Nov.2-4
923LV
Brown
53%
Brown
53%

Brown

53%

Renacci

43%
43%
Renacci  Brown+10

Nov. 2, 2018

U.S. Senate, Ohio, 2018

450RV
Nov.1-3
450RV
Brown
53%
Brown
53%

Brown

53%

Renacci

39%
39%
Renacci  Brown+14

Oct. 30, 2018

U.S. Senate, Ohio, 2018

503LV
Oct.30-31
503LV
Brown
52%
Brown
52%

Brown

52%

Renacci

42%
42%
Renacci  Brown+10
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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