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Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 5, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Fetterman
49%
Fetterman
49%

Fetterman

49%

Oz

48%
48%
Oz  Fetterman+1
631LV
Nov.2-6
631LV
Fetterman
46%
Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

51%

Gerhardt

2%
51%
OzOz+5
904RV
Nov.2-6
904RV
Fetterman
47%
Fetterman
47%

Fetterman

47%

Oz

41%

Gerhardt

3%
41%
OzFetterman+6

Nov. 4, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

846RV
Nov.2-5
846RV
Fetterman
46%
Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

49%
49%
Oz  Oz+3

Nov. 2, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

750LV
Nov.3
750LV
Fetterman
46%
Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

48%

Gerhardt

2%
48%
OzOz+2
1,097LV
Nov.1-3
1,097LV
Fetterman
46%
Fetterman
46%

Fetterman

46%

Oz

48%
48%
Oz  Oz+2

Nov. 1, 2022

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,180LV
Nov.1-2
1,180LV
Fetterman
44%
Fetterman
44%

Fetterman

44%

Oz

47%

Gerhardt

2%

Weiss

1%
47%
OzOz+3
1,152RV
Oct.31-Nov.2
1,152RV
Fetterman
50%
Fetterman
50%

Fetterman

50%

Oz

44%
44%
Oz  Fetterman+6

Oct. 31, 2022

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Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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