UPDATED Nov. 15, 2021, at 9:45 AM

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Who’s ahead in Texas?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Nov. 9, 2020

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Aug 8-11, 2018
Aug 8-11, 2018
O'Rourke
48%

O'Rourke

48%

Cruz

47%
47%
CruzO'Rourke+1

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 1, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 27-Nov 2, 2020
1,042 LV
Oct 27-Nov 2, 2020
1,042LVHegar
44%

Hegar

44%

Cornyn

57%
57%
CornynCornyn+13
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 22-31, 2020
3,267 LV
Oct 22-31, 2020
3,267LVHegar
43%

Hegar

43%

Cornyn

47%
47%
CornynCornyn+4

Oct. 31, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
926 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
926LVHegar
47%

Hegar

47%

Cornyn

50%

Turullols-Bonilla

2%

McKennon

1%
MoreCornyn+3
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 29-31, 2020
763 LV
Oct 29-31, 2020
763LVHegar
47%

Hegar

47%

Cornyn

51%
51%
CornynCornyn+4
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 27-28, 2020
670 LV
Oct 27-28, 2020
670LVHegar
43%

Hegar

43%

Cornyn

49%
49%
CornynCornyn+6

Oct. 29, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 27-28, 2020
800 LV
Oct 27-28, 2020
800LVHegar
42%

Hegar

42%

Cornyn

48%
48%
CornynCornyn+6
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 23-26, 2020
492 LV
Oct 23-26, 2020
492LVHegar
48%

Hegar

48%

Cornyn

52%
52%
CornynCornyn+5

Oct. 28, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 20-26, 2020
873 LV
Oct 20-26, 2020
873LVHegar
44%

Hegar

44%

Cornyn

49%
49%
CornynCornyn+5
U.S. Senate
Texas Texas
Oct 17-20, 2020
1,000 LV
Oct 17-20, 2020
1,000LVHegar
41%

Hegar

41%

Cornyn

41%
41%
CornynEven
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