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Who’s ahead in the Texas senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 1, 2020

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2020

1,042LV
Oct.27-Nov.2
1,042LV
Hegar
44%
Hegar
44%

Hegar

44%

Cornyn

57%
57%
Cornyn  Cornyn+13

Oct. 31, 2020

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2020

926LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
926LV
Hegar
47%
Hegar
47%

Hegar

47%

Cornyn

50%

Turullols-Bonilla

2%

McKennon

1%
50%
CornynCornyn+3

Oct. 30, 2020

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2020

763LV
Oct.29-31
763LV
Hegar
47%
Hegar
47%

Hegar

47%

Cornyn

51%
51%
Cornyn  Cornyn+4
3,267LV
Oct.22-31
3,267LV
Hegar
43%
Hegar
43%

Hegar

43%

Cornyn

47%
47%
Cornyn  Cornyn+4

Oct. 27, 2020

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2020

800LV
Oct.27-28
800LV
Hegar
42%
Hegar
42%

Hegar

42%

Cornyn

48%
48%
Cornyn  Cornyn+6
670LV
Oct.27-28
670LV
Hegar
43%
Hegar
43%

Hegar

43%

Cornyn

49%
49%
Cornyn  Cornyn+6

Oct. 25, 2020

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2020

492LV
Oct.23-26
492LV
Hegar
48%
Hegar
48%

Hegar

48%

Cornyn

52%
52%
Cornyn  Cornyn+5
873LV
Oct.20-26
873LV
Hegar
44%
Hegar
44%

Hegar

44%

Cornyn

49%
49%
Cornyn  Cornyn+5
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Candidate is an incumbent

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