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Who’s ahead in the Vermont Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 25, 2022

U.S. Senate, Vermont, 2022

1,039LV
Oct.21-26
1,039LV
Welch
63%
Welch
63%

Welch

63%

Malloy

32%
32%
Malloy  Welch+31

Oct. 2, 2022

U.S. Senate, Vermont, 2022

765LV
Sep.29-Oct.3
765LV
Welch
62%
Welch
62%

Welch

62%

Malloy

28%

Ericson

1%

Ellis

1%

Raheb

0%

Diamondstone-Kohout

0%
28%
MalloyWelch+34

Sept. 6, 2022

April 17, 2022

U.S. Senate, Vermont, 2022

583LV
Apr.14-18
583LV
Welch
62%
Welch
62%

Welch

62%

Nolan

27%
27%
Nolan  Welch+35

Sept. 14, 2020

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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