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Who’s ahead in the Virginia Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 11, 2022

U.S. Senate, Virginia, 2024

1,000A
Sep.6-12
1,000A
Kaine
41%
Kaine
41%

Kaine

41%

Youngkin

39%
39%
Youngkin  Kaine+2

Oct. 31, 2020

U.S. Senate, Virginia, 2020

283LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
283LV
Warner
61%
Warner
61%

Warner

61%

Gade

39%
39%
Gade  Warner+21
690LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
690LV
Warner
57%
Warner
57%

Warner

57%

Gade

42%
42%
Gade  Warner+15

Oct. 28, 2020

U.S. Senate, Virginia, 2020

802LV
Oct.23-29
802LV
Warner
55%
Warner
55%

Warner

55%

Gade

39%
39%
Gade  Warner+16

Oct. 26, 2020

U.S. Senate, Virginia, 2020

908LV
Oct.15-27
908LV
Warner
57%
Warner
57%

Warner

57%

Gade

37%
37%
Gade  Warner+20

Oct. 25, 2020

U.S. Senate, Virginia, 2020

332LV
Oct.23-26
332LV
Warner
60%
Warner
60%

Warner

60%

Gade

40%
40%
Gade  Warner+19
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Candidate is an incumbent

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