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Who’s ahead in the Texas race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 17, 2023

President: Republican primary, Texas, 2024

Oct. 6-18
524LV
Oct. 6-18
524LV
Trump
66%
Trump
66%

Trump

66%

DeSantis

25%
25%
DeSantis  Trump+41
Oct. 6-18
524LV
Oct. 6-18
524LV
Trump
58%
Trump
58%

Trump

58%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

6%

Ramaswamy

3%

Pence

3%

Christie

2%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Binkley

1%
14%
DeSantisTrump+44

Oct. 16, 2023

President: general election, Texas, 2024

Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Biden
36%
Biden
36%

Biden

36%

Pence

29%
29%
Pence  Biden+7
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Biden
34%
Biden
34%

Biden

34%

Scott

33%
33%
Scott  Biden+1
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Biden
34%
Biden
34%

Biden

34%

Haley

32%
32%
Haley  Biden+2
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Biden
36%
Biden
36%

Biden

36%

Ramaswamy

33%
33%
Ramaswamy  Biden+3
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Biden
38%
Biden
38%

Biden

38%

DeSantis

39%
39%
DeSantis  DeSantis+1
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Oct. 5-17
1,200RV
Biden
37%
Biden
37%

Biden

37%

Trump

45%
45%
Trump  Trump+8

President: Republican primary, Texas, 2024

Oct. 5-17
568RV
Oct. 5-17
568RV
Trump
62%
Trump
62%

Trump

62%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

7%

Pence

3%

Ramaswamy

3%

Hutchinson

1%

Christie

1%

Scott

1%

Hurd

1%

Burgum

0%
13%
DeSantisTrump+49

Oct. 8, 2023

President: Republican primary, Texas, 2024

Oct. 5-9
418LV
Oct. 5-9
418LV
Trump
59%
Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

24%
24%
DeSantis  Trump+35
Oct. 5-9
418LV
Oct. 5-9
418LV
Trump
58%
Trump
58%

Trump

58%

Haley

11%

DeSantis

9%

Ramaswamy

5%

Pence

2%

Christie

1%

Scott

1%

Burgum

0%
11%
HaleyTrump+47

Sept. 3, 2023

President: Republican primary, Texas, 2024

Sept. 1-4
406LV
Sept. 1-4
406LV
Trump
62%
Trump
62%

Trump

62%

DeSantis

24%
24%
DeSantis  Trump+38
Sept. 1-4
406LV
Sept. 1-4
406LV
Trump
61%
Trump
61%

Trump

61%

DeSantis

10%

Haley

5%

Pence

5%

Ramaswamy

3%

Christie

2%

Hurd

2%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
10%
DeSantisTrump+51

July 30, 2023

President: Republican primary, Texas, 2024

July 30-31
606LV
July 30-31
606LV
Trump
53%
Trump
53%

Trump

53%

DeSantis

29%
29%
DeSantis  Trump+24
July 30-31
606LV
July 30-31
606LV
Trump
48%
Trump
48%

Trump

48%

DeSantis

13%

Scott

5%

Christie

4%

Pence

4%

Ramaswamy

4%

Haley

3%

Hurd

3%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
13%
DeSantisTrump+35
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