UPDATED Nov. 29, 2021, at 9:23 AM

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Who’s ahead in Texas?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
Governor
Governor
Texas Texas
Nov 9, 2021
724 LV
Nov 9, 2021
724LVCastro
39%

Castro

39%

Abbott

45%
45%
AbbottAbbott+6
Governor
Texas Texas
Nov 9, 2021
724 LV
Nov 9, 2021
724LVO'Rourke
44%

O'Rourke

44%

Abbott

43%
43%
AbbottO'Rourke+1
Governor
Texas Texas
Nov 9, 2021
884 RV
Nov 9, 2021
884RVCastro
35%

Castro

35%

Abbott

43%
43%
AbbottAbbott+8
Governor
Texas Texas
Nov 9, 2021
884 RV
Nov 9, 2021
884RVO'Rourke
39%

O'Rourke

39%

Abbott

40%
40%
AbbottAbbott+1

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 20, 2021

Governor
Governor
Texas Texas
Nov 9-16, 2021
1,106 RV
Nov 9-16, 2021
1,106RVMcConaughey
43%

McConaughey

43%

Abbott

35%
35%
AbbottMcConaughey+8
Governor
Texas Texas
Nov 9-16, 2021
1,106 RV
Nov 9-16, 2021
1,106RVO'Rourke
39%

O'Rourke

39%

Abbott

45%
45%
AbbottAbbott+6

Nov. 4, 2021

Governor
Governor
Texas Texas
Oct 22-31, 2021
1,200 RV
Oct 22-31, 2021
1,200RVO'Rourke
37%

O'Rourke

37%

Abbott

46%
46%
AbbottAbbott+9

Oct. 31, 2021

Governor
Governor
Texas Texas
Oct 14-27, 2021
1,402 RV
Oct 14-27, 2021
1,402RVO'Rourke
37%

O'Rourke

37%

Abbott

40%

McConaughey

9%

Behrman

1%

Barrios

1%
MoreAbbott+3
Governor
Texas Texas
Oct 14-27, 2021
1,402 RV
Oct 14-27, 2021
1,402RVO'Rourke
42%

O'Rourke

42%

Abbott

43%

Behrman

2%

Barrios

1%
MoreAbbott+1

Sept. 18, 2021

Governor
Governor
Texas Texas
Sep 7-14, 2021
1,074 RV
Sep 7-14, 2021
1,074RVO'Rourke
37%

O'Rourke

37%

Abbott

42%
42%
AbbottAbbott+5
Governor
Texas Texas
Sep 7-14, 2021
1,074 RV
Sep 7-14, 2021
1,074RVMcConaughey
44%

McConaughey

44%

Abbott

35%
35%
AbbottMcConaughey+9
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