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Who’s ahead in the Virginia race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending April 14, 2022

U.S. House, VA-2, 2022

600RV
Apr.10-15
600RV
Luria
39%
Luria
39%

Luria

39%

Kiggans

34%
34%
Kiggans  Luria+5
600RV
Apr.10-15
600RV
Luria
38%
Luria
38%

Luria

38%

Bell

33%
33%
Bell  Luria+5

Oct. 31, 2021

Governor, Virginia, 2021
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Oct.31-Nov.1
450LV
McAuliffe
47%
McAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

48%

Blanding

2%
48%
YoungkinYoungkin+1
747LV
Oct.26-Nov.1
747LV
McAuliffe
50%
McAuliffe
50%

McAuliffe

50%

Youngkin

47%
47%
Youngkin  McAuliffe+3

Oct. 30, 2021

Oct. 29, 2021

Governor, Virginia, 2021
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

500LV
Oct.27-30
500LV
McAuliffe
45%
McAuliffe
45%

McAuliffe

45%

Youngkin

47%

Blanding

2%
47%
YoungkinYoungkin+2

Oct. 28, 2021

Governor, Virginia, 2021
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

611LV
Oct.27-29
611LV
McAuliffe
46%
McAuliffe
46%

McAuliffe

46%

Youngkin

49%

Blanding

2%
49%
YoungkinYoungkin+3
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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