UPDATED Sep. 17, 2021, at 5:26 PM

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Who’s ahead in Virginia?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Sep 7-13, 2021
728 LV
Sep 7-13, 2021
728LVMcAuliffe
50%

McAuliffe

50%

Youngkin

47%
47%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+3
Governor
Va.Va.
Sep 7-13, 2021
907 RV
Sep 7-13, 2021
907RVMcAuliffe
49%

McAuliffe

49%

Youngkin

43%
43%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+6

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

 

Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Sep 13-14, 2021
778 LV
Sep 13-14, 2021
778LVMcAuliffe
51%

McAuliffe

51%

Youngkin

48%
48%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+3

Sept. 8, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Aug 30-Sep 2, 2021
734 LV
Aug 30-Sep 2, 2021
734LVMcAuliffe
48%

McAuliffe

48%

Youngkin

48%
48%
YoungkinEven
Governor
Va.Va.
Aug 3-5, 2021
734 LV
Aug 3-5, 2021
734LVMcAuliffe
50%

McAuliffe

50%

Youngkin

43%

Blanding

3%
MoreMcAuliffe+7
Governor
Va.Va.
Aug 3-5, 2021
734 LV
Aug 3-5, 2021
734LVMcAuliffe
51%

McAuliffe

51%

Youngkin

45%
45%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+6

Sept. 7, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Aug 30-Sep 2, 2021
734 LV
Aug 30-Sep 2, 2021
734LVMcAuliffe
46%

McAuliffe

46%

Youngkin

48%

Blanding

3%
MoreYoungkin+2

Aug. 30, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Aug 26-29, 2021
1,074 LV
Aug 26-29, 2021
1,074LVMcAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

46%
46%
YoungkinEven
Governor
Va.Va.
Aug 24-29, 2021
802 RV
Aug 24-29, 2021
802RVMcAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

42%
42%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+5
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