UPDATED Nov. 15, 2021, at 9:45 AM

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Who’s ahead in Virginia?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Oct. 31, 2021

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
Governor
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2021
450 LV
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2021
450LVMcAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

48%

Blanding

2%
MoreYoungkin+1
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 26-Nov 1, 2021
747 LV
Oct 26-Nov 1, 2021
747LVMcAuliffe
50%

McAuliffe

50%

Youngkin

47%
47%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+3
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 29-31, 2021
1,081 LV
Oct 29-31, 2021
1,081LVMcAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

49%
49%
YoungkinYoungkin+2
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 27-30, 2021
500 LV
Oct 27-30, 2021
500LVMcAuliffe
45%

McAuliffe

45%

Youngkin

47%

Blanding

2%
MoreYoungkin+2

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Oct. 29, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 14-28, 2021
571 LV
Oct 14-28, 2021
571LVMcAuliffe
48%

McAuliffe

48%

Youngkin

47%

Blanding

1%
MoreMcAuliffe+1

Oct. 28, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 27-29, 2021
611 LV
Oct 27-29, 2021
611LVMcAuliffe
46%

McAuliffe

46%

Youngkin

49%

Blanding

2%
MoreYoungkin+3
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 20-26, 2021
1,107 RV
Oct 20-26, 2021
1,107RVMcAuliffe
49%

McAuliffe

49%

Youngkin

45%
45%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+4
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 20-26, 2021
918 LV
Oct 20-26, 2021
918LVMcAuliffe
49%

McAuliffe

49%

Youngkin

48%
48%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+1

Oct. 27, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 24-27, 2021
1,015 LV
Oct 24-27, 2021
1,015LVMcAuliffe
45%

McAuliffe

45%

Youngkin

53%
53%
YoungkinYoungkin+8
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 24-27, 2021
1,212 RV
Oct 24-27, 2021
1,212RVMcAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

48%
48%
YoungkinYoungkin+1
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 20-21, 2021
785 LV
Oct 20-21, 2021
785LVMcAuliffe
43%

McAuliffe

43%

Youngkin

47%

Blanding

5%
MoreYoungkin+4

Oct. 26, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va. Va.
Oct 17-25, 2021
944 LV
Oct 17-25, 2021
944LVMcAuliffe
49%

McAuliffe

49%

Youngkin

48%

Blanding

1%
MoreMcAuliffe+1
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