UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM
FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings
Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.
|Races called correctly||0%|
|Most recent cycle||2022|
|Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper||No|
How accurate are the polls from Alloy Analytics?
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
|Dates||Sample||Race||Methodology||Poll margin||Election margin||Difference|
|Oct 30-Nov 1||639LV||Governor (AZ)|
|Live Phone/Online|| |
FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»
Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.
Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.