UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

C/D

Ascend Action

Polls analyzed	6
Races called correctly	83%
Most recent cycle	2022
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Ascend Action?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2022

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 5-6	682LV	Senate (OK) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Mullin +12.0	Actual Mullin +26.5	Difference 14.5
Nov 5-6	682LV	Governor (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Stitt +3.0	Actual Stitt +13.7	Difference 10.7
Nov 5-6	682LV	Senate (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lankford +20.0	Actual Lankford +32.2	Difference 12.2
Oct 24-28	749LV	Senate (OK) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Mullin +6.0	Actual Mullin +26.5	Difference 20.5
Oct 24-28	749LV	Governor (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hofmeister +3.0	Actual Stitt +13.7	Difference 16.7
Oct 24-28	749LV	Senate (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lankford +17.0	Actual Lankford +32.2	Difference 15.2

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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