UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research

Polls analyzed	56
Races called correctly	74%
Most recent cycle	2022
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2022

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-30	1,002RV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Warnock +1.0	Actual Warnock +1.0	Difference 0.0
Oct 26-30	1,003LV	Senate (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kelly +2.0	Actual Kelly +4.9	Difference 2.9
Oct 26-30	1,000RV	Governor (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Michels +1.0	Actual Evers +3.4	Difference 4.4
Oct 26-30	1,005RV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shapiro +16.0	Actual Shapiro +14.8	Difference 1.2
Oct 26-30	1,002RV	Governor (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kemp +6.0	Actual Kemp +7.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 26-30	1,003LV	Governor (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lake +1.0	Actual Hobbs +0.7	Difference 1.7
Oct 26-30	1,000RV	Senate (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Johnson +3.0	Actual Johnson +1.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 26-30	1,005RV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fetterman +3.0	Actual Fetterman +4.9	Difference 1.9

2021

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-27	1,015LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Youngkin +8.0	Actual Youngkin +1.9	Difference 6.1
Oct 10-13	726LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll McAuliffe +5.0	Actual Youngkin +1.9	Difference 6.9

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-29	1,246LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +8.0	Actual Biden +4.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 17-20	1,032LV	Senate (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Peters +8.0	Actual Peters +1.7	Difference 6.3
Oct 17-20	1,037LV	President (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +5.0	Actual Biden +0.6	Difference 4.4
Oct 17-20	1,045LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +5.0	Actual Biden +1.2	Difference 3.8
Oct 17-20	1,032LV	President (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +12.0	Actual Biden +2.8	Difference 9.2
Oct 17-20	1,018LV	President (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +3.0	Actual Trump +8.0	Difference 5.0

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-30	718LV	Governor (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lee +17.0	Actual Lee +21.0	Difference 4.0
Oct 27-30	718LV	Senate (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Blackburn +9.0	Actual Blackburn +10.8	Difference 1.8
Oct 27-30	789LV	Senate (ND) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cramer +9.0	Actual Cramer +10.9	Difference 1.9
Oct 27-30	741LV	Senate (MO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Hawley +5.8	Difference 5.8
Oct 27-30	722LV	Senate (IN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Donnelly +7.0	Actual Braun +5.9	Difference 12.9
Oct 27-30	789LV	House (ND-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Armstrong +22.0	Actual Armstrong +24.7	Difference 2.7
Oct 27-29	643LV	Governor (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ducey +18.0	Actual Ducey +14.2	Difference 3.8
Oct 27-29	643LV	Senate (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Sinema +2.3	Difference 2.3

2017

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Dec 7-10	1,127LV	Senate (AL) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Jones +10.0	Actual Jones +1.7	Difference 8.3
Nov 2-5	1,239LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Northam +5.0	Actual Northam +8.9	Difference 3.9

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 3-6	1,295LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +4.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 1.9
Nov 3-6	1,295LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +1.0	Actual Republicans +1.1	Difference 0.1
Nov 1-3	1,107LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 0.1
Nov 1-3	1,107LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +1.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 22-25	1,221LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +2.0	Actual Republicans +1.1	Difference 3.1
Oct 22-25	1,221LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +5.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 2.9
Oct 22-25	1,221LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +3.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 0.9
Apr 18-21	602LV	President (IN) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +8.0	Actual Trump +16.6	Difference 8.6
Apr 18-21	603LV	President (IN) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +4.0	Actual Sanders +4.9	Difference 8.9
Apr 4-7	802LV	President (PA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +28.0	Actual Trump +34.9	Difference 6.9
Apr 4-7	602LV	President (NY) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +32.0	Actual Trump +35.1	Difference 3.1
Apr 4-7	801LV	President (NY) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +16.0	Actual Clinton +16.1	Difference 0.1
Apr 4-7	805LV	President (PA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +11.0	Actual Clinton +12.0	Difference 1.0
Mar 28-30	742LV	President (WI) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Cruz +10.0	Actual Cruz +13.2	Difference 3.2
Mar 28-30	860LV	President (WI) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Sanders +5.0	Actual Sanders +13.6	Difference 8.6
Mar 5-8	813LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +23.0	Actual Trump +18.7	Difference 4.3
Mar 5-8	806LV	President (OH) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Kasich +5.0	Actual Kasich +11.1	Difference 6.1
Feb 15-17	642LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +28.0	Actual Clinton +47.4	Difference 19.4
Feb 15-17	759LV	President (SC) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +17.0	Actual Trump +10.0	Difference 7.0
Jan 18-21	378LV	President (IA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +11.0	Actual Cruz +3.3	Difference 14.3
Jan 18-21	423LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +6.0	Actual Clinton +0.3	Difference 5.7

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-30	803LV	Governor (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kasich +15.0	Actual Kasich +30.6	Difference 15.6
Oct 28-30	907LV	Governor (KS) General election	Live Phone	Poll Davis +6.0	Actual Brownback +3.7	Difference 9.7
Oct 28-30	911LV	Governor (IA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Branstad +17.0	Actual Branstad +21.7	Difference 4.7
Oct 28-30	911LV	Senate (IA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ernst +1.0	Actual Ernst +8.3	Difference 7.3
Oct 28-30	909LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hagan +1.0	Actual Tillis +1.6	Difference 2.6
Oct 28-30	907LV	Senate (KS) General election	Live Phone	Poll Orman +1.0	Actual Roberts +10.6	Difference 11.6
Oct 25-27	734LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +1.0	Actual Republicans +5.9	Difference 6.9

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-30	1,128LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 23-24	1,126LV	President (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Romney +2.0	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 5.9
Oct 17-18	1,131LV	President (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Obama +3.0	Difference 0.0
Oct 17-18	1,130LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Romney +3.0	Actual Obama +0.9	Difference 3.9

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

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Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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