UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

C/D

Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy

Polls analyzed	14
Races called correctly	86%
Most recent cycle	2016
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2016

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Apr 19-21	164LV	President (RI) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +12.2	Actual Trump +39.8	Difference 27.6
Apr 19-21	436LV	President (RI) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +9.4	Actual Sanders +11.9	Difference 21.3

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-26	500LV	Governor (RI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Raimondo +0.6	Actual Raimondo +4.5	Difference 3.9
Oct 14-17	1,129LV	Governor (RI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Raimondo +11.1	Actual Raimondo +4.5	Difference 6.6

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Feb 27-Mar 2	402LV	President (RI) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +5.0	Actual Clinton +18.1	Difference 13.1

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 19-21	194LV	House (RI-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kennedy +17.0	Actual Kennedy +22.6	Difference 5.6
Oct 19-21	418LV	Governor (RI) General election	Live Phone	Poll York +7.0	Actual Carcieri +9.5	Difference 16.5
Oct 19-21	418LV	Senate (RI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Reed +47.0	Actual Reed +56.9	Difference 9.9

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-22	189LV	House (RI-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Langevin +42.0	Actual Langevin +40.8	Difference 1.2
Oct 21-22	179LV	House (RI-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kennedy +35.0	Actual Kennedy +33.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 21-22	370LV	Senate (RI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Chafee +24.0	Actual Chafee +15.7	Difference 8.3
Oct 21-22	370LV	President (RI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +18.0	Actual Gore +29.1	Difference 11.1
Feb 25-27	321LV	President (VT) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Gore +21.0	Actual Gore +10.6	Difference 10.4
Feb 19-21	222RV	President (RI) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Gore +13.0	Actual Gore +17.0	Difference 4.0

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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