A-
| Polls analyzed | 62 |
| Races called correctly | 77% |
| Most recent cycle | 2018 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from CBS News/The New York Times?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2018
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14-17 | 975RV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +9.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +9.9 | Difference 0.9 |
2016
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2-6 | 1,426LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 28-Nov 1 | 927LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +3.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +0.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 28-Nov 1 | 927LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +3.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.1 | Difference 0.9 |
2014
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23-27 | 624LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (R) +8.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +5.6 | Difference 2.4 |
2012
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25-28 | 563LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +1.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.8 | Difference 2.8 |
| Oct 25-28 | 563A | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +2.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +1.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 17-20 | 790LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.8 | Difference 1.8 |
2010
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21-26 | 600LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (R) +6.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +6.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 10-15 | 927LV | Senate (NY) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +25.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 2.8 |
| Oct 10-15 | 927LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +40.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 10-15 | 927LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +35.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 5.7 |
2008
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 600LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Nov 1 | 747LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 257RV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +18.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +10.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Oct 31 | 607LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 29-31 | 600RV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +9.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +10.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 30 | 600LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +11.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 25-29 | 600LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +12.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +10.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 25-29 | 699LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +11.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 25-29 | 1,005LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 19-22 | 600LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +12.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +10.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 19-22 | 699LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 17-19 | 327LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +13.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Jan 5-6 | 323LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.6 | Difference 9.6 |
2006
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27-31 | 598LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +18.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +7.5 | Difference 10.5 |
| Oct 20-25 | 552LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Menendez (D) +1.0 | Actual Menendez (D) +16.0 | Difference 15.0 |
2004
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 1,125LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +2.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 28-30 | 1,125LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +3.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 14-17 | 1,125LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 14-15 | 678LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +6.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +2.6 | Difference 8.6 |
| Jan 31-Feb 1 | 433LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Edwards (D) +4.0 | Actual Edwards (D) +15.3 | Difference 11.3 |
| Jan 28-30 | 545LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Edwards (D) +7.0 | Actual Edwards (D) +15.3 | Difference 8.3 |
| Jan 28-29 | 365LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Edwards (D) +12.0 | Actual Edwards (D) +15.3 | Difference 3.3 |
2002
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27-31 | 669LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (R) +7.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +4.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 19-24 | 746LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Lautenberg (D) +13.0 | Actual Lautenberg (D) +9.9 | Difference 3.1 |
2001
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21-23 | 760LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll McGreevey (D) +13.0 | Actual McGreevey (D) +14.8 | Difference 1.8 |
2000
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4-6 | 1,091LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +1.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Nov 2-5 | 1,273LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +3.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +0.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Nov 2-5 | 1,273LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +4.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Nov 2-5 | 600LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Nov 1-4 | 1,158LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +1.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +0.4 | Difference 1.4 |
| Nov 1-4 | 1,158LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Nov 1-3 | 825LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +2.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 29-31 | 965LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +7.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +0.4 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 29-31 | 600LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 29-31 | 965LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 25-28 | 871LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +20.0 | Actual Gore (D) +25.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 25-28 | 871LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +8.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +12.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 22-24 | 514LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +5.0 | Actual Bush (R) +0.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 22-24 | 514LV | Senate (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Nelson (D) +9.0 | Actual Nelson (D) +4.9 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 22-24 | 514LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +2.0 | Actual Bush (R) +0.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 18-21 | 825LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +2.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 18-21 | 825LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Candidate (R) +0.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 18-21 | 600LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Feb 24-27 | 382LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +26.0 | Actual Gore (D) +32.2 | Difference 6.2 |
| Feb 24-27 | 281LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +10.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Feb 16-22 | 542LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +31.0 | Actual Gore (D) +32.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Feb 16-22 | 374LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +7.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Jan 28-30 | 347LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +16.0 | Actual Gore (D) +4.1 | Difference 11.9 |
| Jan 28-30 | 450LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +4.0 | Actual McCain (R) +18.2 | Difference 14.2 |
| Jan 25-26 | 397LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +5.0 | Actual McCain (R) +18.2 | Difference 13.2 |
1998
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 600LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +1.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +0.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 26-28 | 485LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (R) +3.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +0.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 21-25 | 639RV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Pataki (R) +35.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +21.2 | Difference 13.8 |
| Oct 21-25 | 1,235RV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Schumer (D) +10.5 | Difference 10.5 |
| Oct 12-13 | 600LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +2.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +0.9 | Difference 2.9 |
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