B-
| Polls analyzed | 109 |
| Races called correctly | 75% |
| Most recent cycle | 2020 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from Change Research?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 475LV | President (ME-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +1.0 | Actual Trump (R) +7.4 | Difference 8.4 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 1,024LV | Senate (ME) General election | Online/Text | Poll Gideon (D) +4.0 | Actual Collins (R) +8.6 | Difference 12.6 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 549LV | President (ME-1) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +21.0 | Actual Biden (D) +23.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 597LV | House (MO-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Wagner (R) +6.4 | Difference 6.4 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 547LV | President (NE-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Biden (D) +6.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 1,024LV | President (ME) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +12.0 | Actual Biden (D) +9.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 738LV | House (NY-24) General election | Online/Text | Poll Balter (D) +2.0 | Actual Katko (R) +10.2 | Difference 12.2 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 920LV | President (MT) General election | Online/Text | Poll Trump (R) +5.0 | Actual Trump (R) +16.4 | Difference 11.4 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 547LV | House (NE-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Eastman (D) +1.0 | Actual Bacon (R) +4.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 475LV | House (ME-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Golden (D) +9.0 | Actual Golden (D) +6.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 596LV | House (IN-5) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Spartz (R) +4.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 586LV | House (AR-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Hill (R) +10.7 | Difference 10.7 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 920LV | Governor (MT) General election | Online/Text | Poll Gianforte (R) +4.0 | Actual Gianforte (R) +12.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 475LV | President (ME-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Trump (R) +7.4 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 920LV | Senate (MT) General election | Online/Text | Poll Daines (R) +4.0 | Actual Daines (R) +10.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 1,024LV | Senate (ME) General election | Online/Text | Poll Gideon (D) +8.0 | Actual Collins (R) +8.6 | Difference 16.6 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 607LV | House (OK-5) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Bice (R) +4.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 505LV | House (OH-1) General election | Online/Text | Poll Chabot (R) +2.0 | Actual Chabot (R) +7.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 473LV | Senate (NC) General election | Online/Text | Poll Cunningham (D) +4.0 | Actual Tillis (R) +1.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 383LV | Senate (MI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Peters (D) +5.0 | Actual Peters (D) +1.7 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 1,084LV | Senate (IA) General election | Online/Text | Poll Greenfield (D) +1.0 | Actual Ernst (R) +6.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 409LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | Online/Text | Poll Kelly (D) +4.0 | Actual Kelly (D) +2.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 553LV | President (WI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +8.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.6 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 473LV | President (NC) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +2.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 383LV | President (MI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +7.0 | Actual Biden (D) +2.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 1,084LV | President (IA) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Trump (R) +8.2 | Difference 8.2 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 806LV | President (FL) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.4 | Difference 6.4 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 409LV | President (AZ) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 1,880LV | President (National) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +10.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 699LV | President (PA) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +4.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.2 | Difference 2.8 |
| Oct 23-24 | 1,125LV | President (National) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +8.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 22-24 | 530LV | House (FL-15) General election | Online/Text | Poll Franklin (R) +2.0 | Actual Franklin (R) +10.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 16-19 | 521LV | Senate (NC) General election | Online/Text | Poll Cunningham (D) +6.0 | Actual Tillis (R) +1.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 16-19 | 718LV | Senate (MI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Peters (D) +5.0 | Actual Peters (D) +1.7 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 16-19 | 232LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | Online/Text | Poll Kelly (D) +11.0 | Actual Kelly (D) +2.3 | Difference 8.7 |
| Oct 16-19 | 1,076LV | Senate (AK) General election | Online/Text | Poll Sullivan (R) +3.0 | Actual Sullivan (R) +12.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Oct 16-19 | 447LV | President (WI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +8.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.6 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 16-19 | 574LV | President (PA) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +2.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 16-19 | 521LV | President (NC) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 16-19 | 718LV | President (MI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +7.0 | Actual Biden (D) +2.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 16-19 | 547LV | President (FL) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +5.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.4 | Difference 8.4 |
| Oct 16-19 | 232LV | President (AZ) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +6.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 17-18 | 2,711LV | President (National) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +10.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 13-15 | 603LV | House (IA-4) General election | Online | Poll Feenstra (R) +5.0 | Actual Feenstra (R) +24.2 | Difference 19.2 |
| Oct 12-15 | 1,021LV | Senate (MN) General election | Online | Poll Smith (D) +4.0 | Actual Smith (D) +5.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 12-15 | 1,021LV | President (MN) General election | Online | Poll Biden (D) +5.0 | Actual Biden (D) +7.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Mar 1-2 | 510LV | President (VA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Biden (D) +20.0 | Actual Biden (D) +30.2 | Difference 10.2 |
| Mar 1-2 | 507LV | President (ME) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +19.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.9 | Difference 19.9 |
| Feb 23-27 | 543LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Biden (D) +4.0 | Actual Biden (D) +28.9 | Difference 24.9 |
| Feb 20-23 | 1,069LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +25.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +8.1 | Difference 16.9 |
| Feb 12-14 | 1,015LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Even | Actual Biden (D) +28.9 | Difference 28.9 |
| Feb 8-9 | 662LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +9.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +1.3 | Difference 7.7 |
| Jan 22-26 | 704LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +7.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +3.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Jan 22-26 | 704LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +8.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +3.4 | Difference 4.6 |
2018
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 | 1,211LV | Senate (MS) Special runoff | Online | Poll Hyde-Smith (R) +5.0 | Actual Hyde-Smith (R) +7.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Nov 2-4 | 350LV | House (OH-4) General election | Online | Poll Jordan (R) +24.0 | Actual Jordan (R) +30.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Nov 2-4 | 457LV | House (OH-1) General election | Online | Poll Chabot (R) +3.0 | Actual Chabot (R) +4.4 | Difference 1.4 |
| Nov 2-4 | 567LV | House (NC-13) General election | Online | Poll Even | Actual Budd (R) +6.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Nov 2-4 | 879LV | House (MT-1) General election | Online | Poll Gianforte (R) +8.0 | Actual Gianforte (R) +4.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Nov 2-4 | 501LV | House (MI-8) General election | Online | Poll Slotkin (D) +1.0 | Actual Slotkin (D) +3.8 | Difference 2.8 |
| Nov 2-4 | 460LV | House (MI-6) General election | Online | Poll Longjohn (D) +2.0 | Actual Upton (R) +4.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Nov 2-4 | 395LV | House (GA-6) General election | Online | Poll McBath (D) +6.0 | Actual McBath (D) +1.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Nov 2-4 | 858LV | Governor (WY) General election | Online | Poll Gordon (R) +34.0 | Actual Gordon (R) +39.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Nov 2-4 | 851LV | Governor (SD) General election | Online | Poll Sutton (D) +6.0 | Actual Noem (R) +3.4 | Difference 9.4 |
| Nov 2-4 | 1,833LV | Governor (PA) General election | Online | Poll Wolf (D) +11.0 | Actual Wolf (D) +17.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Nov 2-4 | 923LV | Governor (OH) General election | Online | Poll Cordray (D) +5.0 | Actual DeWine (R) +3.7 | Difference 8.7 |
| Nov 2-4 | 880LV | Governor (MI) General election | Online | Poll Whitmer (D) +8.0 | Actual Whitmer (D) +9.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Nov 2-4 | 961LV | Governor (IA) General election | Online | Poll Hubbell (D) +3.0 | Actual Reynolds (R) +2.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Nov 2-4 | 838LV | Governor (ID) General election | Online | Poll Little (R) +16.0 | Actual Little (R) +21.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Nov 2-4 | 1,108LV | Governor (CA) General election | Online | Poll Newsom (D) +12.0 | Actual Newsom (D) +23.9 | Difference 11.9 |
| Nov 2-4 | 1,003LV | Senate (MS) Special jungle primary | Online | Poll Espy (D) +13.0 | Actual Hyde-Smith (R) +0.3 | Difference 13.3 |
| Nov 2-4 | 953LV | Senate (MN) Special election | Online | Poll Smith (D) +9.0 | Actual Smith (D) +10.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Nov 2-4 | 858LV | Senate (WY) General election | Online | Poll Barrasso (R) +29.0 | Actual Barrasso (R) +36.9 | Difference 7.9 |
| Nov 2-4 | 1,833LV | Senate (PA) General election | Online | Poll Casey (D) +7.0 | Actual Casey (D) +13.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Nov 2-4 | 923LV | Senate (OH) General election | Online | Poll Brown (D) +10.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Nov 2-4 | 1,006LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Online | Poll Menendez (D) +10.0 | Actual Menendez (D) +11.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Nov 2-4 | 879LV | Senate (MT) General election | Online | Poll Rosendale (R) +3.0 | Actual Tester (D) +3.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Nov 2-4 | 1,003LV | Senate (MS) General election | Online | Poll Wicker (R) +8.0 | Actual Wicker (R) +19.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Nov 2-4 | 953LV | Senate (MN) General election | Online | Poll Klobuchar (D) +15.0 | Actual Klobuchar (D) +24.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Nov 2-4 | 880LV | Senate (MI) General election | Online | Poll Stabenow (D) +2.0 | Actual Stabenow (D) +6.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Nov 2-4 | 1,108LV | Senate (CA) General election | Online | Poll Feinstein (D) +10.0 | Actual Feinstein (D) +8.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Nov 2-4 | 953LV | Governor (MN) General election | Online | Poll Walz (D) +12.0 | Actual Walz (D) +11.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Nov 2-4 | 858LV | House (WY-1) General election | Online | Poll Cheney (R) +27.0 | Actual Cheney (R) +33.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Nov 2-4 | 710LV | House (VA-2) General election | Online | Poll Even | Actual Luria (D) +2.2 | Difference 2.2 |
| Nov 2-4 | 851LV | House (SD-1) General election | Online | Poll Johnson (R) +10.0 | Actual Johnson (R) +24.3 | Difference 14.3 |
| Nov 1-2 | 1,236LV | Senate (FL) General election | Online | Poll Nelson (D) +2.0 | Actual Scott (R) +0.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Nov 1-2 | 1,211LV | Senate (TX) General election | Online | Poll Even | Actual Cruz (R) +2.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 631LV | House (IA-4) General election | Online | Poll King (R) +1.0 | Actual King (R) +3.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 27-29 | 466LV | House (MI-6) General election | Online | Poll Upton (R) +3.0 | Actual Upton (R) +4.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 901LV | Governor (NH) General election | Online | Poll Sununu (R) +1.0 | Actual Sununu (R) +7.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 27-29 | 525LV | House (WI-6) General election | Online | Poll Grothman (R) +2.0 | Actual Grothman (R) +11.0 | Difference 9.0 |
| Oct 27-29 | 431LV | House (OH-2) General election | Online | Poll Wenstrup (R) +13.0 | Actual Wenstrup (R) +16.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 27-29 | 838LV | House (NY-1) General election | Online | Poll Zeldin (R) +15.0 | Actual Zeldin (R) +4.1 | Difference 10.9 |
| Oct 27-29 | 475LV | House (FL-18) General election | Online | Poll Mast (R) +9.0 | Actual Mast (R) +8.6 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 27-29 | 574LV | House (MI-1) General election | Online | Poll Bergman (R) +12.0 | Actual Bergman (R) +12.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 902LV | House (KS-2) General election | Online | Poll Watkins (R) +1.0 | Actual Watkins (R) +0.8 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 27-29 | 541LV | House (IN-9) General election | Online | Poll Hollingsworth (R) +7.0 | Actual Hollingsworth (R) +13.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 27-29 | 527LV | House (IN-5) General election | Online | Poll Brooks (R) +6.0 | Actual Brooks (R) +13.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Oct 27-29 | 554LV | House (IL-16) General election | Online | Poll Kinzinger (R) +14.0 | Actual Kinzinger (R) +18.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 27-29 | 485LV | House (CO-3) General election | Online | Poll Tipton (R) +15.0 | Actual Tipton (R) +8.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 25-26 | 682LV | House (OH-7) General election | Online | Poll Gibbs (R) +6.0 | Actual Gibbs (R) +17.5 | Difference 11.5 |
| Oct 24-25 | 742LV | House (NE-1) General election | Online | Poll Fortenberry (R) +16.0 | Actual Fortenberry (R) +20.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 23-24 | 510LV | House (NY-23) General election | Online | Poll Reed (R) +2.0 | Actual Reed (R) +8.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 19-21 | 840LV | House (CA-22) General election | Online | Poll Nunes (R) +5.0 | Actual Nunes (R) +5.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 19-21 | 551LV | House (WI-1) General election | Online | Poll Bryce (D) +1.0 | Actual Steil (R) +12.3 | Difference 13.3 |
2017
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9-11 | 1,556LV | Senate (AL) Special election | Online | Poll Moore (R) +6.0 | Actual Jones (D) +1.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Dec 5-7 | 2,443LV | Senate (AL) Special election | Online | Poll Moore (R) +7.0 | Actual Jones (D) +1.6 | Difference 8.6 |
| Nov 26-27 | 1,868RV | Senate (AL) Special election | Online | Poll Moore (R) +5.0 | Actual Jones (D) +1.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Nov 1-5 | 3,648RV | Governor (VA) General election | Online | Poll Northam (D) +6.0 | Actual Northam (D) +8.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Nov 1-5 | 2,040LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Online | Poll Murphy (D) +16.0 | Actual Murphy (D) +14.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Jun 14-18 | 1,001A | House (SC-5) Special election | Online | Poll Norman (R) +9.0 | Actual Norman (R) +3.1 | Difference 5.9 |
| May 20-23 | 1,888RV | House (MT-1) Special election | Online | Poll Gianforte (R) +5.0 | Actual Gianforte (R) +5.6 | Difference 0.6 |
Comments