Polls analyzed | 109 |
Races called correctly | 75% |
Most recent cycle | 2020 |
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from Change Research?
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 475LV | President (ME-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +1.0 | Actual Trump (R) +7.4 | Difference 8.4 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 1,024LV | Senate (ME) General election | Online/Text | Poll Gideon (D) +4.0 | Actual Collins (R) +8.6 | Difference 12.6 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 549LV | President (ME-1) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +21.0 | Actual Biden (D) +23.1 | Difference 2.1 |
Oct 30-Nov 2 | 597LV | House (MO-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Wagner (R) +6.4 | Difference 6.4 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 547LV | President (NE-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Biden (D) +6.5 | Difference 3.5 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 1,024LV | President (ME) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +12.0 | Actual Biden (D) +9.1 | Difference 2.9 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 738LV | House (NY-24) General election | Online/Text | Poll Balter (D) +2.0 | Actual Katko (R) +10.2 | Difference 12.2 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 920LV | President (MT) General election | Online/Text | Poll Trump (R) +5.0 | Actual Trump (R) +16.4 | Difference 11.4 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 547LV | House (NE-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Eastman (D) +1.0 | Actual Bacon (R) +4.6 | Difference 5.6 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 475LV | House (ME-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Golden (D) +9.0 | Actual Golden (D) +6.1 | Difference 2.9 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 596LV | House (IN-5) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Spartz (R) +4.1 | Difference 4.1 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 586LV | House (AR-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Hill (R) +10.7 | Difference 10.7 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 920LV | Governor (MT) General election | Online/Text | Poll Gianforte (R) +4.0 | Actual Gianforte (R) +12.9 | Difference 8.9 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 475LV | President (ME-2) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Trump (R) +7.4 | Difference 7.4 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 920LV | Senate (MT) General election | Online/Text | Poll Daines (R) +4.0 | Actual Daines (R) +10.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 1,024LV | Senate (ME) General election | Online/Text | Poll Gideon (D) +8.0 | Actual Collins (R) +8.6 | Difference 16.6 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 607LV | House (OK-5) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Bice (R) +4.1 | Difference 4.1 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 505LV | House (OH-1) General election | Online/Text | Poll Chabot (R) +2.0 | Actual Chabot (R) +7.1 | Difference 5.1 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 473LV | Senate (NC) General election | Online/Text | Poll Cunningham (D) +4.0 | Actual Tillis (R) +1.7 | Difference 5.7 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 383LV | Senate (MI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Peters (D) +5.0 | Actual Peters (D) +1.7 | Difference 3.3 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 1,084LV | Senate (IA) General election | Online/Text | Poll Greenfield (D) +1.0 | Actual Ernst (R) +6.6 | Difference 7.6 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 409LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | Online/Text | Poll Kelly (D) +4.0 | Actual Kelly (D) +2.3 | Difference 1.7 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 553LV | President (WI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +8.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.6 | Difference 7.4 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 473LV | President (NC) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +2.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.3 | Difference 3.3 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 383LV | President (MI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +7.0 | Actual Biden (D) +2.8 | Difference 4.2 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 1,084LV | President (IA) General election | Online/Text | Poll Even | Actual Trump (R) +8.2 | Difference 8.2 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 806LV | President (FL) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.4 | Difference 6.4 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 409LV | President (AZ) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.3 | Difference 2.7 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 1,880LV | President (National) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +10.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.5 | Difference 5.5 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 699LV | President (PA) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +4.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.2 | Difference 2.8 |
Oct 23-24 | 1,125LV | President (National) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +8.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.5 | Difference 3.5 |
Oct 22-24 | 530LV | House (FL-15) General election | Online/Text | Poll Franklin (R) +2.0 | Actual Franklin (R) +10.8 | Difference 8.8 |
Oct 16-19 | 521LV | Senate (NC) General election | Online/Text | Poll Cunningham (D) +6.0 | Actual Tillis (R) +1.7 | Difference 7.7 |
Oct 16-19 | 718LV | Senate (MI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Peters (D) +5.0 | Actual Peters (D) +1.7 | Difference 3.3 |
Oct 16-19 | 232LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | Online/Text | Poll Kelly (D) +11.0 | Actual Kelly (D) +2.3 | Difference 8.7 |
Oct 16-19 | 1,076LV | Senate (AK) General election | Online/Text | Poll Sullivan (R) +3.0 | Actual Sullivan (R) +12.7 | Difference 9.7 |
Oct 16-19 | 447LV | President (WI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +8.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.6 | Difference 7.4 |
Oct 16-19 | 574LV | President (PA) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +2.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.2 | Difference 0.8 |
Oct 16-19 | 521LV | President (NC) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +3.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.3 | Difference 4.3 |
Oct 16-19 | 718LV | President (MI) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +7.0 | Actual Biden (D) +2.8 | Difference 4.2 |
Oct 16-19 | 547LV | President (FL) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +5.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.4 | Difference 8.4 |
Oct 16-19 | 232LV | President (AZ) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +6.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.3 | Difference 5.7 |
Oct 17-18 | 2,711LV | President (National) General election | Online/Text | Poll Biden (D) +10.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.5 | Difference 5.5 |
Oct 13-15 | 603LV | House (IA-4) General election | Online | Poll Feenstra (R) +5.0 | Actual Feenstra (R) +24.2 | Difference 19.2 |
Oct 12-15 | 1,021LV | Senate (MN) General election | Online | Poll Smith (D) +4.0 | Actual Smith (D) +5.2 | Difference 1.2 |
Oct 12-15 | 1,021LV | President (MN) General election | Online | Poll Biden (D) +5.0 | Actual Biden (D) +7.1 | Difference 2.1 |
Mar 1-2 | 510LV | President (VA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Biden (D) +20.0 | Actual Biden (D) +30.2 | Difference 10.2 |
Mar 1-2 | 507LV | President (ME) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +19.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.9 | Difference 19.9 |
Feb 23-27 | 543LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Biden (D) +4.0 | Actual Biden (D) +28.9 | Difference 24.9 |
Feb 20-23 | 1,069LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +25.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +8.1 | Difference 16.9 |
Feb 12-14 | 1,015LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Even | Actual Biden (D) +28.9 | Difference 28.9 |
Feb 8-9 | 662LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +9.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +1.3 | Difference 7.7 |
Jan 22-26 | 704LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +7.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +3.4 | Difference 3.6 |
Jan 22-26 | 704LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | Online | Poll Sanders (D) +8.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +3.4 | Difference 4.6 |
2018
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 25 | 1,211LV | Senate (MS) Special runoff | Online | Poll Hyde-Smith (R) +5.0 | Actual Hyde-Smith (R) +7.3 | Difference 2.3 |
Nov 2-4 | 350LV | House (OH-4) General election | Online | Poll Jordan (R) +24.0 | Actual Jordan (R) +30.5 | Difference 6.5 |
Nov 2-4 | 457LV | House (OH-1) General election | Online | Poll Chabot (R) +3.0 | Actual Chabot (R) +4.4 | Difference 1.4 |
Nov 2-4 | 567LV | House (NC-13) General election | Online | Poll Even | Actual Budd (R) +6.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Nov 2-4 | 879LV | House (MT-1) General election | Online | Poll Gianforte (R) +8.0 | Actual Gianforte (R) +4.6 | Difference 3.4 |
Nov 2-4 | 501LV | House (MI-8) General election | Online | Poll Slotkin (D) +1.0 | Actual Slotkin (D) +3.8 | Difference 2.8 |
Nov 2-4 | 460LV | House (MI-6) General election | Online | Poll Longjohn (D) +2.0 | Actual Upton (R) +4.6 | Difference 6.6 |
Nov 2-4 | 395LV | House (GA-6) General election | Online | Poll McBath (D) +6.0 | Actual McBath (D) +1.0 | Difference 5.0 |
Nov 2-4 | 858LV | Governor (WY) General election | Online | Poll Gordon (R) +34.0 | Actual Gordon (R) +39.6 | Difference 5.6 |
Nov 2-4 | 851LV | Governor (SD) General election | Online | Poll Sutton (D) +6.0 | Actual Noem (R) +3.4 | Difference 9.4 |
Nov 2-4 | 1,833LV | Governor (PA) General election | Online | Poll Wolf (D) +11.0 | Actual Wolf (D) +17.1 | Difference 6.1 |
Nov 2-4 | 923LV | Governor (OH) General election | Online | Poll Cordray (D) +5.0 | Actual DeWine (R) +3.7 | Difference 8.7 |
Nov 2-4 | 880LV | Governor (MI) General election | Online | Poll Whitmer (D) +8.0 | Actual Whitmer (D) +9.6 | Difference 1.6 |
Nov 2-4 | 961LV | Governor (IA) General election | Online | Poll Hubbell (D) +3.0 | Actual Reynolds (R) +2.7 | Difference 5.7 |
Nov 2-4 | 838LV | Governor (ID) General election | Online | Poll Little (R) +16.0 | Actual Little (R) +21.6 | Difference 5.6 |
Nov 2-4 | 1,108LV | Governor (CA) General election | Online | Poll Newsom (D) +12.0 | Actual Newsom (D) +23.9 | Difference 11.9 |
Nov 2-4 | 1,003LV | Senate (MS) Special jungle primary | Online | Poll Espy (D) +13.0 | Actual Hyde-Smith (R) +0.3 | Difference 13.3 |
Nov 2-4 | 953LV | Senate (MN) Special election | Online | Poll Smith (D) +9.0 | Actual Smith (D) +10.6 | Difference 1.6 |
Nov 2-4 | 858LV | Senate (WY) General election | Online | Poll Barrasso (R) +29.0 | Actual Barrasso (R) +36.9 | Difference 7.9 |
Nov 2-4 | 1,833LV | Senate (PA) General election | Online | Poll Casey (D) +7.0 | Actual Casey (D) +13.1 | Difference 6.1 |
Nov 2-4 | 923LV | Senate (OH) General election | Online | Poll Brown (D) +10.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.8 | Difference 3.2 |
Nov 2-4 | 1,006LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Online | Poll Menendez (D) +10.0 | Actual Menendez (D) +11.2 | Difference 1.2 |
Nov 2-4 | 879LV | Senate (MT) General election | Online | Poll Rosendale (R) +3.0 | Actual Tester (D) +3.6 | Difference 6.6 |
Nov 2-4 | 1,003LV | Senate (MS) General election | Online | Poll Wicker (R) +8.0 | Actual Wicker (R) +19.0 | Difference 11.0 |
Nov 2-4 | 953LV | Senate (MN) General election | Online | Poll Klobuchar (D) +15.0 | Actual Klobuchar (D) +24.1 | Difference 9.1 |
Nov 2-4 | 880LV | Senate (MI) General election | Online | Poll Stabenow (D) +2.0 | Actual Stabenow (D) +6.5 | Difference 4.5 |
Nov 2-4 | 1,108LV | Senate (CA) General election | Online | Poll Feinstein (D) +10.0 | Actual Feinstein (D) +8.3 | Difference 1.7 |
Nov 2-4 | 953LV | Governor (MN) General election | Online | Poll Walz (D) +12.0 | Actual Walz (D) +11.4 | Difference 0.6 |
Nov 2-4 | 858LV | House (WY-1) General election | Online | Poll Cheney (R) +27.0 | Actual Cheney (R) +33.8 | Difference 6.8 |
Nov 2-4 | 710LV | House (VA-2) General election | Online | Poll Even | Actual Luria (D) +2.2 | Difference 2.2 |
Nov 2-4 | 851LV | House (SD-1) General election | Online | Poll Johnson (R) +10.0 | Actual Johnson (R) +24.3 | Difference 14.3 |
Nov 1-2 | 1,236LV | Senate (FL) General election | Online | Poll Nelson (D) +2.0 | Actual Scott (R) +0.1 | Difference 2.1 |
Nov 1-2 | 1,211LV | Senate (TX) General election | Online | Poll Even | Actual Cruz (R) +2.6 | Difference 2.6 |
Oct 27-29 | 631LV | House (IA-4) General election | Online | Poll King (R) +1.0 | Actual King (R) +3.3 | Difference 2.3 |
Oct 27-29 | 466LV | House (MI-6) General election | Online | Poll Upton (R) +3.0 | Actual Upton (R) +4.6 | Difference 1.6 |
Oct 27-29 | 901LV | Governor (NH) General election | Online | Poll Sununu (R) +1.0 | Actual Sununu (R) +7.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Oct 27-29 | 525LV | House (WI-6) General election | Online | Poll Grothman (R) +2.0 | Actual Grothman (R) +11.0 | Difference 9.0 |
Oct 27-29 | 431LV | House (OH-2) General election | Online | Poll Wenstrup (R) +13.0 | Actual Wenstrup (R) +16.4 | Difference 3.4 |
Oct 27-29 | 838LV | House (NY-1) General election | Online | Poll Zeldin (R) +15.0 | Actual Zeldin (R) +4.1 | Difference 10.9 |
Oct 27-29 | 475LV | House (FL-18) General election | Online | Poll Mast (R) +9.0 | Actual Mast (R) +8.6 | Difference 0.4 |
Oct 27-29 | 574LV | House (MI-1) General election | Online | Poll Bergman (R) +12.0 | Actual Bergman (R) +12.6 | Difference 0.6 |
Oct 27-29 | 902LV | House (KS-2) General election | Online | Poll Watkins (R) +1.0 | Actual Watkins (R) +0.8 | Difference 0.2 |
Oct 27-29 | 541LV | House (IN-9) General election | Online | Poll Hollingsworth (R) +7.0 | Actual Hollingsworth (R) +13.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Oct 27-29 | 527LV | House (IN-5) General election | Online | Poll Brooks (R) +6.0 | Actual Brooks (R) +13.5 | Difference 7.5 |
Oct 27-29 | 554LV | House (IL-16) General election | Online | Poll Kinzinger (R) +14.0 | Actual Kinzinger (R) +18.2 | Difference 4.2 |
Oct 27-29 | 485LV | House (CO-3) General election | Online | Poll Tipton (R) +15.0 | Actual Tipton (R) +8.0 | Difference 7.0 |
Oct 25-26 | 682LV | House (OH-7) General election | Online | Poll Gibbs (R) +6.0 | Actual Gibbs (R) +17.5 | Difference 11.5 |
Oct 24-25 | 742LV | House (NE-1) General election | Online | Poll Fortenberry (R) +16.0 | Actual Fortenberry (R) +20.7 | Difference 4.7 |
Oct 23-24 | 510LV | House (NY-23) General election | Online | Poll Reed (R) +2.0 | Actual Reed (R) +8.5 | Difference 6.5 |
Oct 19-21 | 840LV | House (CA-22) General election | Online | Poll Nunes (R) +5.0 | Actual Nunes (R) +5.4 | Difference 0.4 |
Oct 19-21 | 551LV | House (WI-1) General election | Online | Poll Bryce (D) +1.0 | Actual Steil (R) +12.3 | Difference 13.3 |
2017
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dec 9-11 | 1,556LV | Senate (AL) Special election | Online | Poll Moore (R) +6.0 | Actual Jones (D) +1.6 | Difference 7.6 |
Dec 5-7 | 2,443LV | Senate (AL) Special election | Online | Poll Moore (R) +7.0 | Actual Jones (D) +1.6 | Difference 8.6 |
Nov 26-27 | 1,868RV | Senate (AL) Special election | Online | Poll Moore (R) +5.0 | Actual Jones (D) +1.6 | Difference 6.6 |
Nov 1-5 | 3,648RV | Governor (VA) General election | Online | Poll Northam (D) +6.0 | Actual Northam (D) +8.9 | Difference 2.9 |
Nov 1-5 | 2,040LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Online | Poll Murphy (D) +16.0 | Actual Murphy (D) +14.1 | Difference 1.9 |
Jun 14-18 | 1,001A | House (SC-5) Special election | Online | Poll Norman (R) +9.0 | Actual Norman (R) +3.1 | Difference 5.9 |
May 20-23 | 1,888RV | House (MT-1) Special election | Online | Poll Gianforte (R) +5.0 | Actual Gianforte (R) +5.6 | Difference 0.6 |
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