UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

A/B

Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership

Polls analyzed	14
Races called correctly	93%
Most recent cycle	2021
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2021

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 17-25	944LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll McAuliffe +1.0	Actual Youngkin +1.9	Difference 2.9

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-27	908LV	Senate (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Warner +20.0	Actual Warner +12.1	Difference 7.9
Oct 15-27	908LV	President (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +12.0	Actual Biden +10.2	Difference 1.8
Oct 8-18	807LV	House (VA-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Luria +7.0	Actual Luria +5.8	Difference 1.2
Feb 3-24	561LV	President (VA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Biden +5.0	Actual Biden +30.2	Difference 25.2

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 18-27	790LV	House (VA-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Spanberger +3.0	Actual Spanberger +1.9	Difference 1.1
Oct 18-27	871LV	House (VA-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Spanberger +1.0	Actual Spanberger +1.9	Difference 0.9

2017

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-Nov 4	839LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Northam +6.0	Actual Northam +8.9	Difference 2.9
Oct 20-25	812LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Northam +7.0	Actual Northam +8.9	Difference 1.9

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-6	1,193LV	President (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +6.0	Actual Clinton +5.4	Difference 0.6
Oct 23-26	814LV	President (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +7.0	Actual Clinton +5.4	Difference 1.6
Oct 16-19	834LV	President (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +12.0	Actual Clinton +5.4	Difference 6.6

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-29	634LV	Senate (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Warner +7.0	Actual Warner +0.8	Difference 6.2

2013

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-30	1,038LV	Governor (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll McAuliffe +7.0	Actual McAuliffe +2.5	Difference 4.5

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-21	490LV	House (VA-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rigell +1.0	Actual Rigell +10.7	Difference 9.7

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

Send us feedback.