Pollster Ratings - Ciruli Associates

Ciruli Associates

Pollsters with a relatively small number of polls now receive a provisional rating rather than a precise letter grade.

A/B

Polls analyzed	20
Races called correctly	95%
Most recent cycle	2016
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	Yes

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-31	550LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +1.0	Actual Clinton (D) +4.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 29-31	550LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Clinton (D) +4.9	Difference 4.9
Oct 29-31	550LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bennet (D) +8.0	Actual Bennet (D) +5.7	Difference 2.3

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-22	501LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ritter (D) +19.0	Actual Ritter (D) +16.8	Difference 2.2

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-19	600RV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +7.0	Actual Bush (R) +4.7	Difference 2.3
Oct 15-19	600RV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +6.0	Actual Bush (R) +4.7	Difference 1.3
Oct 15-19	600RV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Salazar (D) +4.0	Actual Salazar (D) +4.8	Difference 0.8
Oct 9-15	400LV	House (CO-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Musgrave (R) +17.0	Actual Musgrave (R) +6.3	Difference 10.7

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-Nov 1	400LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (R) +36.0	Actual Owens (R) +29.0	Difference 7.0
Oct 30-Nov 1	600LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Strickland (D) +4.0	Actual Allard (R) +4.9	Difference 8.9
Oct 25-28	400LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Allard (R) +2.0	Actual Allard (R) +4.9	Difference 2.9
Oct 25-28	400LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (R) +36.0	Actual Owens (R) +29.0	Difference 7.0
Oct 21-24	400LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Allard (R) +8.0	Actual Allard (R) +4.9	Difference 3.1
Oct 21-24	600LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Allard (R) +5.0	Actual Allard (R) +4.9	Difference 0.1
Oct 20-23	400LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (R) +37.0	Actual Owens (R) +29.0	Difference 8.0
Oct 19-22	600LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (R) +28.0	Actual Owens (R) +29.0	Difference 1.0

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 3	400LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +9.0	Actual Bush (R) +8.4	Difference 0.6
Oct 27-30	400LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +9.0	Actual Bush (R) +8.4	Difference 0.6
Oct 23-26	400LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +10.0	Actual Bush (R) +8.4	Difference 1.6

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28	500LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (R) +4.0	Actual Owens (R) +0.6	Difference 3.4
Oct 23-26	400LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Campbell (R) +29.0	Actual Campbell (R) +27.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 22	500LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (R) +6.0	Actual Owens (R) +0.6	Difference 5.4
Oct 19-22	400LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Campbell (R) +31.0	Actual Campbell (R) +27.5	Difference 3.5

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