Polls analyzed | 12 |
Races called correctly | 54% |
Most recent cycle | 2018 |
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | No |
How accurate are the polls from Clarity Campaign Labs?
2018
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 15-16 | 840LV | House (CA-4) General election | IVR | Poll McClintock (R) +4.0 | Actual McClintock (R) +8.3 | Difference 4.3 |
2016
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-4 | 1,033LV | President (PA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Trump (R) +0.7 | Difference 4.7 |
Nov 1-4 | 1,033LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll McGinty (D) +3.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +1.4 | Difference 4.4 |
Nov 1-2 | 1,129LV | President (WI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Trump (R) +0.8 | Difference 4.8 |
Nov 1-2 | 1,036LV | President (MO) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +16.0 | Actual Trump (R) +18.6 | Difference 2.6 |
Nov 1-2 | 1,036LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Blunt (R) +2.0 | Actual Blunt (R) +2.8 | Difference 0.8 |
Nov 1-2 | 1,129LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Feingold (D) +3.0 | Actual Johnson (R) +3.4 | Difference 6.4 |
2014
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-2 | 1,003LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Snyder (R) +4.1 | Difference 4.1 |
Oct 19-20 | 1,032LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Schauer (D) +3.0 | Actual Snyder (R) +4.1 | Difference 7.1 |
Oct 19-20 | 1,032LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Peters (D) +15.0 | Actual Peters (D) +13.3 | Difference 1.7 |
2012
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 24-26 | 825LV | Governor (IN) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Pence (R) +3.0 | Actual Pence (R) +2.9 | Difference 0.1 |
Oct 24-26 | 825LV | Senate (IN) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Donnelly (D) +7.0 | Actual Donnelly (D) +5.8 | Difference 1.2 |
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