B/C
| Polls analyzed | 12 |
| Races called correctly | 54% |
| Most recent cycle | 2018 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | No |
How accurate are the polls from Clarity Campaign Labs?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2018
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15-16 | 840LV | House (CA-4) General election | IVR | Poll McClintock (R) +4.0 | Actual McClintock (R) +8.3 | Difference 4.3 |
2016
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-4 | 1,033LV | President (PA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Trump (R) +0.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Nov 1-4 | 1,033LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll McGinty (D) +3.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +1.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Nov 1-2 | 1,129LV | President (WI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Trump (R) +0.8 | Difference 4.8 |
| Nov 1-2 | 1,036LV | President (MO) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +16.0 | Actual Trump (R) +18.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Nov 1-2 | 1,036LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Blunt (R) +2.0 | Actual Blunt (R) +2.8 | Difference 0.8 |
| Nov 1-2 | 1,129LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Feingold (D) +3.0 | Actual Johnson (R) +3.4 | Difference 6.4 |
2014
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-2 | 1,003LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Snyder (R) +4.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 19-20 | 1,032LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Schauer (D) +3.0 | Actual Snyder (R) +4.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Oct 19-20 | 1,032LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Peters (D) +15.0 | Actual Peters (D) +13.3 | Difference 1.7 |
2012
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24-26 | 825LV | Governor (IN) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Pence (R) +3.0 | Actual Pence (R) +2.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 24-26 | 825LV | Senate (IN) General election | IVR/Live Phone | Poll Donnelly (D) +7.0 | Actual Donnelly (D) +5.8 | Difference 1.2 |
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