Pollster Ratings - Clout Research/Wenzel Strategies

Clout Research/Wenzel Strategies

Pollsters with a relatively small number of polls now receive a provisional rating rather than a precise letter grade.

B/C

Polls analyzed	16
Races called correctly	56%
Most recent cycle	2017
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	No

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Apr 14-15	453LV	House (GA-6) Special jungle primary	Live Phone	Poll Ossoff (D) +26.0	Actual Ossoff (D) +28.4	Difference 2.4

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 3-4	981LV	Governor (OR) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Brown (D) +11.1	Actual Brown (D) +7.2	Difference 3.9
Oct 20-21	928LV	Governor (OR) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Brown (D) +2.0	Actual Brown (D) +7.2	Difference 5.2
Apr 27	423LV	President (IN) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +1.9	Actual Trump (R) +16.6	Difference 14.7

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-23	640LV	Governor (VA) General election	IVR	Poll McAuliffe (D) +1.0	Actual McAuliffe (D) +2.5	Difference 1.5

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-31	1,074LV	Senate (WI) General election	IVR	Poll Thompson (R) +2.0	Actual Baldwin (D) +5.5	Difference 7.5
Oct 30-31	1,281LV	Senate (OH) General election	IVR	Poll Mandel (R) +5.0	Actual Brown (D) +6.0	Difference 11.0
Oct 30-31	1,281LV	President (OH) General election	IVR	Poll Romney (R) +3.0	Actual Obama (D) +3.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 30-31	1,074LV	President (WI) General election	IVR	Poll Obama (D) +2.0	Actual Obama (D) +6.8	Difference 4.8
Oct 23-24	600LV	House (PA-12) General election	IVR	Poll Rothfus (R) +5.0	Actual Rothfus (R) +3.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 23-24	600LV	House (NC-7) General election	IVR	Poll Rouzer (R) +6.0	Actual McIntyre (D) +0.2	Difference 6.2
Oct 23-24	776LV	House (KY-6) General election	IVR	Poll Barr (R) +4.0	Actual Barr (R) +3.9	Difference 0.1
Oct 22-23	1,000LV	Senate (PA) General election	IVR	Poll Casey (D) +1.2	Actual Casey (D) +9.1	Difference 7.9
Oct 19-20	1,000LV	Senate (VA) General election	IVR	Poll Allen (R) +3.3	Actual Kaine (D) +5.9	Difference 9.2
Oct 19-20	1,000LV	President (VA) General election	IVR	Poll Romney (R) +2.0	Actual Obama (D) +3.9	Difference 5.9

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 18-19	1,262LV	House (WA-6) General election	IVR	Poll Cloud (R) +4.1	Actual Dicks (D) +16.1	Difference 20.2

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