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PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

Read more Download the data See the latest polls

Cygnal

B+

Polls analyzed	20
Races called correctly	95%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	No

How accurate are the polls from Cygnal?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-23	600LV	Governor (IN) General election	Live Phone/Online/Text	Poll Holcomb (R) +18.3	Actual Holcomb (R) +24.5	Difference 6.2
Oct 21-23	645LV	Senate (AL) General election	Live Phone/Online/Text	Poll Tuberville (R) +13.6	Actual Tuberville (R) +20.4	Difference 6.8
Oct 20-22	610LV	Senate (TN) General election	Live Phone/Online/Text	Poll Hagerty (R) +20.7	Actual Hagerty (R) +27.0	Difference 6.3
Oct 19-21	625LV	Senate (NE) General election	IVR/Live Phone/Text	Poll Sasse (R) +29.9	Actual Sasse (R) +38.3	Difference 8.4
Oct 19-20	640LV	Senate (KY) General election	IVR/Live Phone/Text	Poll McConnell (R) +10.3	Actual McConnell (R) +19.5	Difference 9.2
Oct 18-20	600LV	Governor (MO) General election	IVR/Online/Text	Poll Parson (R) +6.6	Actual Parson (R) +16.4	Difference 9.8
Oct 18-19	600LV	Senate (TX) General election	IVR/Live Phone/Text	Poll Cornyn (R) +8.1	Actual Cornyn (R) +9.6	Difference 1.5

2019

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 7-9	800LV	Governor (LA) Runoff	IVR/Live Phone/Online/Text	Poll Edwards (D) +2.2	Actual Edwards (D) +2.7	Difference 0.5

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-31	503LV	Governor (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll DeWine (R) +0.2	Actual DeWine (R) +3.7	Difference 3.5
Oct 30-31	503LV	Senate (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Brown (D) +10.4	Actual Brown (D) +6.8	Difference 3.6
Oct 27-30	504LV	Governor (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kemp (R) +2.2	Actual Kemp (R) +1.4	Difference 0.8
Oct 27-29	495LV	Governor (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll DeSantis (R) +0.6	Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4	Difference 0.2
Oct 27-29	495LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Nelson (D) +1.8	Actual Scott (R) +0.1	Difference 1.9
Oct 26-27	501LV	Senate (MO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hawley (R) +3.0	Actual Hawley (R) +5.8	Difference 2.8
Oct 26-27	505LV	Senate (IN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Braun (R) +2.9	Actual Braun (R) +5.9	Difference 3.0
Oct 26-27	497LV	Senate (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Blackburn (R) +5.8	Actual Blackburn (R) +10.8	Difference 5.0
Oct 26-27	497LV	Governor (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lee (R) +22.4	Actual Lee (R) +21.0	Difference 1.4

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-28	811LV	Senate (KY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Paul (R) +9.7	Actual Paul (R) +14.5	Difference 4.8
Oct 26-28	811LV	President (KY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +24.0	Actual Trump (R) +29.8	Difference 5.8

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 13-15	807LV	Governor (AL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bentley (R) +21.3	Actual Bentley (R) +27.3	Difference 6.0

Show all

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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