A/B
| Polls analyzed | 13 |
| Races called correctly | 96% |
| Most recent cycle | 2020 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from Data Orbital?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28-30 | 550LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Kelly (D) +1.1 | Actual Kelly (D) +2.3 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 28-30 | 550LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +0.6 | Actual Biden (D) +0.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 16-18 | 550LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Kelly (D) +6.2 | Actual Kelly (D) +2.3 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 16-18 | 550LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +5.2 | Actual Biden (D) +0.3 | Difference 4.9 |
2018
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16-17 | 600LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Sinema (D) +5.4 | Actual Sinema (D) +2.3 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 16-17 | 600LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Sinema (D) +8.2 | Actual Sinema (D) +2.3 | Difference 5.8 |
2016
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4-6 | 550LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +12.0 | Actual McCain (R) +13.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Nov 4-6 | 550LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +3.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Nov 1-2 | 550LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +8.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Nov 1-2 | 550LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +11.0 | Actual McCain (R) +13.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 29-30 | 550LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +4.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 29-30 | 550LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +10.0 | Actual McCain (R) +13.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 26-27 | 550LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +2.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 17-18 | 550LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 3.5 |
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