Pollster Ratings - DFM Research

DFM Research

Pollsters with a relatively small number of polls now receive a provisional rating rather than a precise letter grade.

B/C

Polls analyzed	10
Races called correctly	75%
Most recent cycle	2018
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	No

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-27	683LV	Senate (NE) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fischer (R) +15.0	Actual Fischer (R) +19.1	Difference 4.1
Oct 23-25	350LV	House (NE-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bacon (R) +7.0	Actual Bacon (R) +2.0	Difference 5.0

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-Nov 1	508LV	President (MO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +9.0	Actual Trump (R) +18.6	Difference 9.6
Oct 27-Nov 1	508LV	Senate (MO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Blunt (R) +2.8	Difference 2.8
Oct 27-Nov 1	508LV	Governor (MO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Koster (D) +6.0	Actual Greitens (R) +5.6	Difference 11.6

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-25	365LV	House (NE-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ashford (D) +5.0	Actual Ashford (D) +3.3	Difference 1.7
Oct 13-16	430LV	House (ND-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cramer (R) +7.0	Actual Cramer (R) +17.1	Difference 10.1

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 13-14	504LV	House (ND-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pomeroy (D) +25.0	Actual Pomeroy (D) +23.9	Difference 1.1
Oct 13-14	504LV	Governor (ND) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hoeven (R) +44.0	Actual Hoeven (R) +50.9	Difference 6.9
Oct 13-14	504LV	President (ND) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +3.0	Actual McCain (R) +8.6	Difference 11.6