UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

Digital Research

Also known as Critical Insights

Polls analyzed	21
Races called correctly	90%
Most recent cycle	2012
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names	Critical Insights

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Digital Research?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2012

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-31	325LV	House (ME-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Michaud +19.0	Actual Michaud +16.4	Difference 2.6
Oct 30-31	288LV	House (ME-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pingree +19.0	Actual Pingree +29.6	Difference 10.6
Oct 30-31	613LV	Senate (ME) General election	Live Phone	Poll King +16.0	Actual King +22.1	Difference 6.1
Oct 30-31	613LV	President (ME) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +7.0	Actual Obama +15.3	Difference 8.3
Oct 30	300LV	President (ME-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +6.0	Actual Obama +21.4	Difference 15.4
Oct 30	300LV	President (ME-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +7.0	Actual Obama +8.6	Difference 1.6

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-28	326LV	House (ME-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Michaud +4.0	Actual Michaud +10.3	Difference 6.3
Oct 27-28	295LV	House (ME-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Scontras +4.0	Actual Pingree +13.6	Difference 17.6
Oct 24-25	400LV	House (PA-10) General election	Live Phone	Poll Marino +9.0	Actual Marino +10.4	Difference 1.4
Oct 24-25	400LV	House (PA-11) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kanjorski +8.0	Actual Barletta +9.4	Difference 17.4
Oct 13-17	295RV	House (ME-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pingree +5.0	Actual Pingree +13.6	Difference 8.6
Oct 13-17	600RV	Governor (ME) General election	Live Phone	Poll LePage +13.0	Actual LePage +11.7	Difference 1.3
Oct 13-17	305RV	House (ME-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Michaud +19.0	Actual Michaud +10.3	Difference 8.7

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 16-19	228LV	House (ME-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pingree +21.0	Actual Pingree +9.8	Difference 11.2
Oct 16-19	443LV	Senate (ME) General election	Live Phone	Poll Collins +12.0	Actual Collins +22.8	Difference 10.8
Oct 16-19	443LV	President (ME) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +21.0	Actual Obama +17.3	Difference 3.7
Oct 16-19	215LV	House (ME-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Michaud +41.0	Actual Michaud +34.9	Difference 6.1

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 16-23	600LV	Senate (ME) General election	Live Phone	Poll Snowe +60.0	Actual Snowe +53.7	Difference 6.3
Oct 16-23	300LV	House (ME-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Michaud +37.0	Actual Michaud +41.0	Difference 4.0
Oct 16-23	600LV	Governor (ME) General election	Live Phone	Poll Baldacci +17.0	Actual Baldacci +7.9	Difference 9.1
Oct 16-23	300LV	House (ME-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Allen +44.0	Actual Allen +29.5	Difference 14.5

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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