UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research

Polls analyzed	14
Races called correctly	68%
Most recent cycle	2022
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from East Carolina University Center for Survey Research?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2022

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 2-5	1,077LV	Governor (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Kemp +8.0	Actual Kemp +7.5	Difference 0.5
Nov 2-5	1,077LV	Senate (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Even	Actual Warnock +1.0	Difference 1.0
Nov 1-3	1,183LV	Senate (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Budd +4.9	Actual Budd +3.2	Difference 1.7

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-28	1,103LV	Governor (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cooper +11.0	Actual Cooper +4.5	Difference 6.5
Oct 27-28	1,103LV	Senate (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cunningham +1.5	Actual Tillis +1.7	Difference 3.3
Oct 27-28	1,103LV	President (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +2.7	Actual Trump +1.4	Difference 4.1
Oct 24-25	763LV	President (SC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +7.7	Actual Trump +11.7	Difference 4.0
Oct 24-25	763LV	Senate (SC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Graham +1.8	Actual Graham +10.3	Difference 8.4
Oct 15-18	1,155LV	Governor (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cooper +12.1	Actual Cooper +4.5	Difference 7.6
Oct 15-18	1,155LV	Senate (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cunningham +1.4	Actual Tillis +1.7	Difference 3.1
Oct 15-18	1,155LV	President (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +3.2	Actual Trump +1.4	Difference 4.6
Feb 27-28	499LV	President (NC) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +3.9	Actual Biden +19.0	Difference 15.1
Feb 23-24	1,142LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +7.4	Actual Biden +28.9	Difference 21.5
Feb 12-13	703LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +8.0	Actual Biden +28.9	Difference 20.9

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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