A/B
| Polls analyzed | 21 |
| Races called correctly | 90% |
| Most recent cycle | 2016 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | No |
How accurate are the polls from Elway Research?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2016
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20-22 | 502LV | President (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +17.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +15.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 20-22 | 502LV | Senate (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Murray (D) +24.0 | Actual Murray (D) +18.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 20-22 | 502LV | Governor (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Inslee (D) +12.0 | Actual Inslee (D) +8.8 | Difference 3.2 |
2014
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26-27 | 403LV | Governor (OR) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kitzhaber (D) +7.0 | Actual Kitzhaber (D) +5.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 26-27 | 400LV | Senate (OR) General election | Live Phone | Poll Merkley (D) +19.0 | Actual Merkley (D) +18.9 | Difference 0.1 |
2012
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25-28 | 405LV | President (OR) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +12.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 18-21 | 451LV | Governor (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll McKenna (R) +2.0 | Actual Inslee (D) +3.1 | Difference 5.1 |
2010
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18-21 | 400LV | House (OR-5) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schrader (D) +12.0 | Actual Schrader (D) +5.3 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 18-21 | 400LV | House (OR-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wu (D) +13.0 | Actual Wu (D) +12.8 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 18-19 | 500LV | Governor (OR) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kitzhaber (D) +1.0 | Actual Kitzhaber (D) +1.5 | Difference 0.5 |
2008
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16-19 | 405RV | President (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +19.0 | Actual Obama (D) +17.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 16-19 | 405RV | Governor (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gregoire (D) +12.0 | Actual Gregoire (D) +6.5 | Difference 5.5 |
2006
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19-21 | 405RV | Senate (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cantwell (D) +18.0 | Actual Cantwell (D) +16.9 | Difference 1.1 |
2004
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14-16 | 405RV | Senate (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Murray (D) +17.0 | Actual Murray (D) +12.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 14-16 | 405RV | Governor (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gregoire (D) +7.0 | Actual Gregoire (D) +0.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 14-16 | 405RV | President (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +6.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +7.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Jan 27-29 | 205RV | President (WA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +27.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +18.4 | Difference 8.6 |
2003
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1-4 | 1,000LV | Governor (CA) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Schwarzenegger (R) +8.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger (R) +17.1 | Difference 9.1 |
2000
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18-20 | 400RV | Senate (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gorton (R) +3.0 | Actual Cantwell (D) +0.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 18-20 | 400RV | President (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +9.0 | Actual Gore (D) +5.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 18-20 | 400RV | Governor (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Locke (D) +25.0 | Actual Locke (D) +18.7 | Difference 6.3 |
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