UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

EMC Research

Also known as Hamilton Beattie or Hamilton Campaigns

Polls analyzed	15
Races called correctly	63%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names	Hamilton Beattie Hamilton Campaigns

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from EMC Research?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-18	400LV	House (NC-11) General election	Live Phone	Poll Davis +3.0	Actual Cawthorn +12.2	Difference 15.2

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-26	400LV	House (MI-6) General election	Live Phone	Poll Upton +4.0	Actual Upton +15.5	Difference 11.5

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 19-22	800LV	Senate (CT) General election	Live Phone	Poll Murphy +6.0	Actual Murphy +11.8	Difference 5.8

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Jan 18-21	600LV	President (CA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +4.0	Actual McCain +7.7	Difference 3.7
Jan 18-21	600LV	President (CA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +11.0	Actual Clinton +8.3	Difference 2.7

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-30	600LV	Senate (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ford +6.0	Actual Corker +2.7	Difference 8.7
Oct 21-24	800LV	Senate (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ford +2.0	Actual Corker +2.7	Difference 4.7
Oct 17-23	400LV	House (FL-13) General election	Live Phone	Poll Jennings +11.0	Actual Buchanan +0.2	Difference 11.2

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-27	600LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Martinez +1.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 24-27	600LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +2.0	Actual Bush +5.0	Difference 3.0
Oct 14-15	400LV	House (TX-32) General election	Live Phone	Poll Sessions +1.0	Actual Sessions +10.3	Difference 9.3

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 14-15	400LV	House (OK-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cole +1.0	Actual Cole +7.7	Difference 6.7

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-22	500LV	Senate (WA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gorton +4.0	Actual Cantwell +0.1	Difference 4.1
Oct 20-22	500LV	Governor (WA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Locke +24.0	Actual Locke +18.7	Difference 5.3
Oct 20-22	500LV	President (WA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +6.0	Actual Gore +5.6	Difference 0.4

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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