UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

A/B

Fairleigh Dickinson University

Polls analyzed	21
Races called correctly	95%
Most recent cycle	2021
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Fairleigh Dickinson University?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2021

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-28	823RV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Murphy +9.0	Actual Murphy +3.2	Difference 5.8

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 13-19	525LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Booker +16.0	Actual Booker +13.5	Difference 2.5

2013

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-30	570LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Christie +19.0	Actual Christie +22.1	Difference 3.1
Sep 30-Oct 5	702RV	Senate (NJ) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Booker +16.0	Actual Booker +10.9	Difference 5.1

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-26	797LV	House (DE-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Carney +17.0	Actual Carney +15.7	Difference 1.3
Oct 20-26	797LV	Senate (DE) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Coons +21.0	Actual Coons +16.6	Difference 4.4

2009

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-Nov 1	1,119LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corzine +2.0	Actual Christie +3.6	Difference 5.6

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-29	852LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lautenberg +20.0	Actual Lautenberg +14.1	Difference 5.9
Oct 23-29	852LV	President (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +18.0	Actual Obama +15.6	Difference 2.4
Jan 20-27	600LV	President (NJ) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +15.0	Actual Clinton +9.8	Difference 5.2

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-31	577LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Menendez +10.0	Actual Menendez +16.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 18-24	502LV	House (DE-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Castle +35.0	Actual Castle +18.4	Difference 16.6
Oct 18-24	502LV	Senate (DE) General election	Live Phone	Poll Carper +34.0	Actual Carper +41.5	Difference 7.5

2005

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-Nov 1	410LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corzine +2.0	Actual Corzine +10.4	Difference 8.4
Oct 25-31	421LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corzine +4.0	Actual Corzine +10.4	Difference 6.4
Oct 20-26	410LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corzine +8.0	Actual Corzine +10.4	Difference 2.4

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-28	549LV	President (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +7.0	Actual Kerry +6.7	Difference 0.3
Oct 13-21	503LV	President (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +8.0	Actual Kerry +6.7	Difference 1.3

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-Nov 3	921LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lautenberg +9.0	Actual Lautenberg +9.9	Difference 0.9
Oct 28-31	600LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lautenberg +10.0	Actual Lautenberg +9.9	Difference 0.1

2001

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-31	600LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll McGreevey +18.0	Actual McGreevey +14.8	Difference 3.2

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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