UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication

Polls analyzed	17
Races called correctly	85%
Most recent cycle	2004
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2004

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-28	617LV	Senate (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gregg +40.0	Actual Gregg +32.5	Difference 7.5
Oct 25-28	617LV	Governor (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lynch +1.0	Actual Lynch +2.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 25-28	617LV	President (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +7.0	Actual Kerry +1.4	Difference 5.6
Oct 18-21	617LV	Senate (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gregg +33.0	Actual Gregg +32.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 18-21	617LV	Governor (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Lynch +2.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 18-21	617LV	President (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +9.0	Actual Kerry +1.4	Difference 7.6
Jan 20-22	600LV	President (NH) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +14.0	Actual Kerry +12.1	Difference 1.9

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-30	466LV	House (NH-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bradley +7.0	Actual Bradley +19.6	Difference 12.6
Oct 27-30	933LV	Governor (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Benson +8.0	Actual Benson +20.5	Difference 12.5
Oct 27-30	933RV	Senate (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shaheen +5.0	Actual Sununu +4.4	Difference 9.4
Oct 25-27	468LV	House (NH-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bass +19.0	Actual Bass +16.0	Difference 3.0

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-25	885RV	President (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +3.0	Actual Bush +1.3	Difference 4.3
Oct 24	885LV	Governor (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shaheen +21.0	Actual Shaheen +5.0	Difference 16.0
Jan 28-30	506LV	President (NH) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +11.0	Actual McCain +18.2	Difference 7.2
Jan 28-30	355LV	President (NH) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Gore +6.0	Actual Gore +4.1	Difference 1.9
Jan 23-26	447LV	President (NH) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Gore +15.0	Actual Gore +4.1	Difference 10.9
Jan 23-26	447LV	President (NH) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +8.0	Actual McCain +18.2	Difference 10.2

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

Send us feedback.