Polls analyzed | 29 |
Races called correctly | 81% |
Most recent cycle | 2020 |
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | No |
How accurate are the polls from Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group?
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 15-18 | 400LV | House (OH-10) General election | Live Phone | Poll Turner (R) +4.0 | Actual Turner (R) +16.7 | Difference 12.7 |
Oct 11-14 | 600LV | Senate (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ossoff (D) +5.0 | Actual Perdue (R) +1.8 | Difference 6.8 |
Oct 11-14 | 600LV | President (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +7.0 | Actual Biden (D) +0.2 | Difference 6.8 |
2016
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 17-18 | 400LV | House (IN-9) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Hollingsworth (R) +13.7 | Difference 13.7 |
2014
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 25-27 | 802LV | Senate (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Ernst (R) +8.3 | Difference 8.3 |
Oct 16-17 | 406LV | House (MA-6) General election | Live Phone | Poll Moulton (D) +11.0 | Actual Moulton (D) +13.8 | Difference 2.8 |
Oct 13-15 | 400LV | House (NJ-5) General election | Live Phone | Poll Garrett (R) +5.0 | Actual Garrett (R) +12.1 | Difference 7.1 |
2012
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27-29 | 807LV | Senate (MT) General election | Live Phone | Poll Tester (D) +1.0 | Actual Tester (D) +3.7 | Difference 2.7 |
Oct 21-22 | 400LV | House (CT-5) General election | Live Phone | Poll Esty (D) +4.0 | Actual Esty (D) +2.6 | Difference 1.4 |
Oct 16-18 | 402LV | House (IL-11) General election | Live Phone | Poll Foster (D) +4.0 | Actual Foster (D) +17.1 | Difference 13.1 |
Oct 15-18 | 802LV | Senate (VA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kaine (D) +4.0 | Actual Kaine (D) +5.9 | Difference 1.9 |
Oct 15-17 | 604LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Casey (D) +13.0 | Actual Casey (D) +9.1 | Difference 3.9 |
May 29-30 | 935LV | Governor (WI) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Walker (R) +2.0 | Actual Walker (R) +6.8 | Difference 4.8 |
May 22-24 | 935LV | Governor (WI) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Walker (R) +1.3 | Actual Walker (R) +6.8 | Difference 5.5 |
2008
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26-27 | 502LV | Senate (KY) General election | Live Phone | Poll McConnell (R) +2.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +5.9 | Difference 3.9 |
Oct 13-14 | 608LV | Senate (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Udall (D) +12.0 | Actual Udall (D) +10.3 | Difference 1.7 |
2006
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 28-30 | 905LV | Governor (MD) General election | Live Phone | Poll O'Malley (D) +6.0 | Actual O'Malley (D) +6.5 | Difference 0.5 |
Oct 26-29 | 811LV | Senate (VA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Webb (D) +4.0 | Actual Webb (D) +0.4 | Difference 3.6 |
Oct 23-24 | 602LV | Senate (MD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cardin (D) +12.0 | Actual Cardin (D) +10.0 | Difference 2.0 |
Oct 22-23 | 404LV | House (PA-6) General election | Live Phone | Poll Murphy (D) +3.0 | Actual Gerlach (R) +1.3 | Difference 4.3 |
2004
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22-24 | 502LV | Senate (KY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bunning (R) +1.0 | Actual Bunning (R) +1.3 | Difference 0.3 |
Oct 15-17 | 600LV | Senate (KY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Bunning (R) +1.3 | Difference 1.3 |
2002
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 28-29 | 600LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Dole (R) +3.0 | Actual Dole (R) +8.6 | Difference 5.6 |
Oct 26-29 | 604LV | Governor (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +3.0 | Actual Bush (R) +12.8 | Difference 9.8 |
Oct 28 | 606LV | Governor (IL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Blagojevich (D) +16.0 | Actual Blagojevich (D) +7.1 | Difference 8.9 |
Oct 22-23 | 603LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Dole (R) +4.0 | Actual Dole (R) +8.6 | Difference 4.6 |
1998
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 12-14 | 902LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +4.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +10.5 | Difference 6.5 |
Oct 12-13 | 400LV | House (ID-2) General election | Live Phone | Poll Stallings (D) +6.0 | Actual Simpson (R) +7.8 | Difference 13.8 |
Oct 12-13 | 372LV | House (ID-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Williams (D) +2.0 | Actual Chenoweth (R) +10.5 | Difference 12.5 |
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