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PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

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Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

B-

Polls analyzed	29
Races called correctly	81%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	No

How accurate are the polls from Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-18	400LV	House (OH-10) General election	Live Phone	Poll Turner (R) +4.0	Actual Turner (R) +16.7	Difference 12.7
Oct 11-14	600LV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ossoff (D) +5.0	Actual Perdue (R) +1.8	Difference 6.8
Oct 11-14	600LV	President (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +7.0	Actual Biden (D) +0.2	Difference 6.8

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 17-18	400LV	House (IN-9) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Hollingsworth (R) +13.7	Difference 13.7

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-27	802LV	Senate (IA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Ernst (R) +8.3	Difference 8.3
Oct 16-17	406LV	House (MA-6) General election	Live Phone	Poll Moulton (D) +11.0	Actual Moulton (D) +13.8	Difference 2.8
Oct 13-15	400LV	House (NJ-5) General election	Live Phone	Poll Garrett (R) +5.0	Actual Garrett (R) +12.1	Difference 7.1

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-29	807LV	Senate (MT) General election	Live Phone	Poll Tester (D) +1.0	Actual Tester (D) +3.7	Difference 2.7
Oct 21-22	400LV	House (CT-5) General election	Live Phone	Poll Esty (D) +4.0	Actual Esty (D) +2.6	Difference 1.4
Oct 16-18	402LV	House (IL-11) General election	Live Phone	Poll Foster (D) +4.0	Actual Foster (D) +17.1	Difference 13.1
Oct 15-18	802LV	Senate (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kaine (D) +4.0	Actual Kaine (D) +5.9	Difference 1.9
Oct 15-17	604LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Casey (D) +13.0	Actual Casey (D) +9.1	Difference 3.9
May 29-30	935LV	Governor (WI) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Walker (R) +2.0	Actual Walker (R) +6.8	Difference 4.8
May 22-24	935LV	Governor (WI) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Walker (R) +1.3	Actual Walker (R) +6.8	Difference 5.5

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-27	502LV	Senate (KY) General election	Live Phone	Poll McConnell (R) +2.0	Actual McConnell (R) +5.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 13-14	608LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Udall (D) +12.0	Actual Udall (D) +10.3	Difference 1.7

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-30	905LV	Governor (MD) General election	Live Phone	Poll O'Malley (D) +6.0	Actual O'Malley (D) +6.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 26-29	811LV	Senate (VA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Webb (D) +4.0	Actual Webb (D) +0.4	Difference 3.6
Oct 23-24	602LV	Senate (MD) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cardin (D) +12.0	Actual Cardin (D) +10.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 22-23	404LV	House (PA-6) General election	Live Phone	Poll Murphy (D) +3.0	Actual Gerlach (R) +1.3	Difference 4.3

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-24	502LV	Senate (KY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bunning (R) +1.0	Actual Bunning (R) +1.3	Difference 0.3
Oct 15-17	600LV	Senate (KY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Bunning (R) +1.3	Difference 1.3

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-29	600LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Dole (R) +3.0	Actual Dole (R) +8.6	Difference 5.6
Oct 26-29	604LV	Governor (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +3.0	Actual Bush (R) +12.8	Difference 9.8
Oct 28	606LV	Governor (IL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Blagojevich (D) +16.0	Actual Blagojevich (D) +7.1	Difference 8.9
Oct 22-23	603LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Dole (R) +4.0	Actual Dole (R) +8.6	Difference 4.6

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 12-14	902LV	Senate (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Schumer (D) +4.0	Actual Schumer (D) +10.5	Difference 6.5
Oct 12-13	400LV	House (ID-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Stallings (D) +6.0	Actual Simpson (R) +7.8	Difference 13.8
Oct 12-13	372LV	House (ID-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Williams (D) +2.0	Actual Chenoweth (R) +10.5	Difference 12.5

Show all

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

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Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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