UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

Google Consumer Surveys

Polls analyzed	24
Races called correctly	92%
Most recent cycle	2016
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Google Consumer Surveys?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2016

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-7	26,574LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Clinton +2.3	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 0.2
Oct 25-31	24,316LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Clinton +2.6	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 0.5
Oct 27-28	943LV	House (National) General election	Online	Poll Republicans +2.9	Actual Republicans +1.1	Difference 1.8
Oct 27-28	943LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Clinton +0.5	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 1.6
Oct 26-28	1,016A	Senate (KY) General election	Online	Poll Paul +6.6	Actual Paul +14.5	Difference 7.9
Oct 26-28	1,004A	President (KY) General election	Online	Poll Trump +13.4	Actual Trump +29.8	Difference 16.4
Oct 25-27	417LV	President (ID) General election	Online	Poll Trump +12.0	Actual Trump +31.8	Difference 19.8
Oct 25-27	446LV	President (AK) General election	Online	Poll Trump +1.0	Actual Trump +15.2	Difference 14.2
Oct 20-24	21,240LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Clinton +4.7	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 2.6
Oct 18-20	500LV	Senate (FL) General election	Online	Poll Rubio +19.0	Actual Rubio +7.7	Difference 11.3
Oct 18-20	439LV	Senate (GA) General election	Online	Poll Isakson +22.0	Actual Isakson +13.8	Difference 8.2
Oct 18-20	474LV	Senate (AL) General election	Online	Poll Shelby +45.0	Actual Shelby +28.1	Difference 16.9

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 5	3,252LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +2.3	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 1.6
Nov 4	2,530LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +0.3	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 3.6
Nov 3	2,727LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Romney +1.0	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 4.9
Nov 2	2,527LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +3.7	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 0.2
Nov 1	2,318LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +2.0	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 1.9
Oct 30	1,547LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +4.0	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 0.1
Oct 28	1,834LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Romney +1.1	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 5.0
Oct 25	1,712LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +3.7	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 0.2
Oct 23	1,726LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +1.5	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 2.4
Oct 22	1,499LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +1.7	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 2.2
Oct 18	1,817LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +0.6	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 3.3
Oct 17	1,916LV	President (National) General election	Online	Poll Obama +2.2	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 1.7

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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