UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies

Polls analyzed	155
Races called correctly	71%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Dec 29-30	1,011LV	Senate (GA) Special runoff	IVR/Online	Poll Warnock +2.0	Actual Warnock +2.1	Difference 0.1
Dec 29-30	1,011LV	Senate (GA) Runoff	IVR/Online	Poll Ossoff +3.0	Actual Ossoff +1.2	Difference 1.8
Oct 27-29	1,281LV	President (National) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +6.0	Actual Biden +4.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 27-28	613LV	President (OH) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +2.0	Actual Trump +8.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 27-28	688LV	President (NV) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +6.0	Actual Biden +2.4	Difference 3.6
Oct 26-28	770LV	House (AK-1) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Young +5.0	Actual Young +9.2	Difference 4.2
Oct 26-28	770LV	President (AK) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +9.0	Actual Trump +10.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 26-28	704LV	President (AZ) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +4.0	Actual Biden +0.3	Difference 3.7
Oct 27-28	670LV	Senate (TX) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cornyn +6.0	Actual Cornyn +9.6	Difference 3.6
Oct 27-28	670LV	President (TX) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +5.0	Actual Trump +5.6	Difference 0.6
Oct 26-28	704LV	Senate (AZ) Special election	IVR/Online	Poll Kelly +5.0	Actual Kelly +2.3	Difference 2.7
Oct 26-28	770LV	Senate (AK) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Sullivan +3.0	Actual Sullivan +12.7	Difference 9.7
Oct 26-27	614LV	Senate (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cunningham +2.0	Actual Tillis +1.7	Difference 3.7
Oct 26-27	614LV	President (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +3.0	Actual Trump +1.4	Difference 4.4
Oct 26-27	614LV	Governor (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cooper +8.0	Actual Cooper +4.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 24-26	657LV	Senate (MN) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Smith +14.0	Actual Smith +5.2	Difference 8.8
Oct 24-26	657LV	President (MN) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +14.0	Actual Biden +7.1	Difference 6.9
Oct 24	679LV	President (MI) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +13.0	Actual Biden +2.8	Difference 10.2
Oct 24	679LV	Senate (MI) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Peters +11.0	Actual Peters +1.7	Difference 9.3
Oct 23	677LV	President (WI) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +11.0	Actual Biden +0.6	Difference 10.4
Oct 23	602LV	President (PA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +7.0	Actual Biden +1.2	Difference 5.8
Mar 10-12	549LV	President (IL) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +38.0	Actual Biden +22.7	Difference 15.3
Mar 10-12	516LV	President (FL) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Biden +41.0	Actual Biden +39.1	Difference 1.9

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-Nov 2	753LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Gillum +1.0	Actual DeSantis +0.4	Difference 1.4
Oct 29-Nov 2	753LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Nelson +3.0	Actual Scott +0.1	Difference 3.1
Oct 24-Nov 2	1,165LV	Senate (AZ) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll McSally +1.0	Actual Sinema +2.3	Difference 3.3
Oct 24-Nov 2	1,165LV	Governor (AZ) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Ducey +13.0	Actual Ducey +14.2	Difference 1.2
Oct 30-Nov 1	885LV	House (VT-1) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Welch +38.0	Actual Welch +43.3	Difference 5.3
Oct 30-Nov 1	885LV	Governor (VT) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Scott +10.0	Actual Scott +15.0	Difference 5.0
Oct 30-Nov 1	885LV	Senate (VT) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Sanders +36.0	Actual Sanders +40.0	Difference 4.0
Oct 30-Nov 1	681LV	Governor (CT) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Lamont +9.0	Actual Lamont +3.2	Difference 5.8
Oct 30-Nov 1	681LV	Senate (CT) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Murphy +23.0	Actual Murphy +20.2	Difference 2.8
Oct 29-30	789LV	Governor (OH) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cordray +5.0	Actual DeWine +3.7	Difference 8.7
Oct 29-30	764LV	Senate (MI) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Stabenow +13.0	Actual Stabenow +6.5	Difference 6.5
Oct 29-30	789LV	Senate (OH) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Brown +9.0	Actual Brown +6.8	Difference 2.2
Oct 25-26	743LV	Governor (CA) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Newsom +20.0	Actual Newsom +23.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 24-26	782LV	House (MT-1) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Even	Actual Gianforte +4.6	Difference 4.6
Oct 24-26	773LV	Senate (NV) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Rosen +2.0	Actual Rosen +5.1	Difference 3.1
Oct 24-26	782LV	Senate (MT) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Tester +3.0	Actual Tester +3.6	Difference 0.6
Oct 24-26	773LV	Governor (NV) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Sisolak +2.0	Actual Sisolak +4.2	Difference 2.2
Oct 22-23	773LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Gillum +5.0	Actual DeSantis +0.4	Difference 5.4
Oct 22-23	773LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Nelson +4.0	Actual Scott +0.1	Difference 4.1
Mar 1-5	911LV	House (PA-18) Special election	IVR/Online	Poll Saccone +3.0	Actual Lamb +0.3	Difference 3.3

2017

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Dec 5-8	1,254LV	Senate (AL) Special election	IVR/Online	Poll Moore +4.0	Actual Jones +1.7	Difference 5.7
Dec 1-3	1,276LV	Senate (AL) Special election	IVR/Online	Poll Jones +4.0	Actual Jones +1.7	Difference 2.3
Oct 30-Nov 3	1,143RV	Governor (VA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Northam +5.5	Actual Northam +8.9	Difference 3.4
Oct 30-Nov 1	611RV	Governor (NJ) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Murphy +14.0	Actual Murphy +14.1	Difference 0.1
May 22	818LV	House (MT-1) Special election	IVR/Online	Poll Gianforte +14.0	Actual Gianforte +5.6	Difference 8.4

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 3-6	1,184RV	President (WI) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +3.0	Actual Trump +0.8	Difference 3.8
Nov 3-6	1,751RV	President (SC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +5.0	Actual Trump +14.3	Difference 9.3
Nov 3-6	1,220RV	President (PA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +6.0	Actual Trump +0.7	Difference 6.7
Nov 3-6	1,963RV	President (OR) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +4.0	Actual Clinton +11.4	Difference 7.4
Nov 3-6	1,781RV	President (OH) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +6.0	Actual Trump +8.1	Difference 2.1
Nov 3-6	1,681RV	President (NY) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +19.0	Actual Clinton +22.6	Difference 3.6
Nov 3-6	1,158LV	President (NV) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Clinton +2.5	Difference 0.5
Nov 3-6	2,002RV	President (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +4.0	Actual Trump +5.1	Difference 1.1
Nov 3-6	1,378RV	President (CO) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +1.0	Actual Clinton +4.9	Difference 3.9
Nov 3-6	617RV	President (AK) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +3.0	Actual Trump +15.2	Difference 12.2
Nov 3-6	16,639RV	President (National) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +4.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 1.9
Nov 3-6	1,158LV	Senate (NV) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Cortez Masto +6.0	Actual Cortez Masto +2.5	Difference 3.5
Nov 3-6	1,453RV	President (AZ) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +2.0	Actual Trump +3.5	Difference 1.5
Nov 1-4	1,362RV	President (VA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +5.0	Actual Clinton +5.4	Difference 0.4
Nov 1-4	1,250RV	President (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +1.0	Actual Trump +3.7	Difference 4.7
Nov 1-4	1,079RV	President (MI) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +5.0	Actual Trump +0.2	Difference 5.2
Nov 1-4	1,250RV	Senate (NC) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Ross +1.0	Actual Burr +5.7	Difference 6.7
Nov 1-2	1,016RV	President (PA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Trump +0.7	Difference 2.7
Nov 1-2	1,327RV	President (NM) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +8.0	Actual Clinton +8.2	Difference 0.2
Nov 1-2	1,001RV	President (NH) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +2.0	Actual Clinton +0.4	Difference 2.4
Nov 1-2	1,220RV	President (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +1.0	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 2.2
Nov 1-2	1,125RV	President (CO) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Even	Actual Clinton +4.9	Difference 4.9
Nov 1-2	2,435RV	President (National) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 0.1
Nov 1-2	1,001RV	Senate (NH) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Ayotte +2.0	Actual Hassan +0.1	Difference 2.1
Nov 1-2	1,220RV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Rubio +1.0	Actual Rubio +7.7	Difference 6.7
Nov 1-2	1,125RV	Senate (CO) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Bennet +3.0	Actual Bennet +5.7	Difference 2.7
Nov 1-2	1,016RV	Senate (PA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll McGinty +2.0	Actual Toomey +1.4	Difference 3.4
Oct 30-Nov 1	399RV	Senate (IN) General election	Online	Poll Bayh +3.0	Actual Young +9.7	Difference 12.7
Oct 30-Nov 1	399RV	Governor (IN) General election	Online	Poll Gregg +4.0	Actual Holcomb +6.0	Difference 10.0
Oct 30-Nov 1	399RV	President (IN) General election	Online	Poll Trump +10.0	Actual Trump +19.2	Difference 9.2
Oct 31	2,606RV	President (PA) General election	IVR	Poll Clinton +1.0	Actual Trump +0.7	Difference 1.7
Oct 31	1,195RV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Clinton +3.0	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 4.2
Oct 31	1,195RV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 3.2
Oct 31	5,360RV	President (National) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +1.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 31	5,360RV	President (National) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Even	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 30-31	1,424RV	President (UT) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +6.0	Actual Trump +18.1	Difference 12.1
Oct 31	2,606RV	President (PA) General election	IVR	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Trump +0.7	Difference 2.7
Oct 25-30	3,217RV	President (PA) General election	IVR	Poll Clinton +3.0	Actual Trump +0.7	Difference 3.7
Oct 25-30	3,217RV	Senate (PA) General election	IVR	Poll McGinty +4.0	Actual Toomey +1.4	Difference 5.4
Oct 25-26	1,273RV	President (NC) General election	IVR	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Trump +3.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 25-26	1,301RV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Clinton +1.0	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 2.2
Oct 25-26	1,824RV	President (National) General election	IVR	Poll Clinton +1.0	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 25-26	1,301RV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Rubio +7.7	Difference 7.7
Oct 25-26	1,273RV	Senate (NC) General election	IVR	Poll Ross +3.0	Actual Burr +5.7	Difference 8.7
Oct 25	875RV	President (NV) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Clinton +2.5	Difference 2.5
Oct 25	875RV	Senate (NV) General election	IVR	Poll Cortez Masto +6.0	Actual Cortez Masto +2.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 22-24	596RV	President (IN) General election	Online	Poll Trump +11.0	Actual Trump +19.2	Difference 8.2
Oct 22-24	596RV	Senate (IN) General election	Online	Poll Bayh +2.0	Actual Young +9.7	Difference 11.7
Oct 22-24	596RV	Governor (IN) General election	Online	Poll Gregg +4.0	Actual Holcomb +6.0	Difference 10.0
Oct 20-23	2,109RV	President (National) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Clinton +2.1	Difference 2.1
Apr 28-29	379LV	President (IN) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +17.0	Actual Trump +16.6	Difference 0.4
Apr 23-24	566LV	President (RI) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +37.0	Actual Trump +39.8	Difference 2.8
Apr 23-24	964LV	President (CT) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +27.0	Actual Trump +29.9	Difference 2.9
Apr 20-22	759LV	President (MD) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +29.0	Actual Trump +30.9	Difference 1.9
Apr 17-18	1,038LV	President (DE) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +37.0	Actual Trump +40.4	Difference 3.4
Apr 17-18	1,026LV	President (DE) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Clinton +7.0	Actual Clinton +20.6	Difference 13.6
Apr 13	481LV	President (NY) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +35.0	Actual Trump +35.1	Difference 0.1
Apr 13	635LV	President (NY) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Clinton +6.0	Actual Clinton +16.1	Difference 10.1
Apr 5-6	857LV	President (NY) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +32.0	Actual Trump +35.1	Difference 3.1
Apr 5-6	1,134LV	President (NY) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Clinton +6.0	Actual Clinton +16.1	Difference 10.1
Mar 28-30	761LV	President (WI) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Cruz +3.0	Actual Cruz +13.2	Difference 10.2
Mar 3	1,356LV	President (LA) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +17.0	Actual Trump +3.6	Difference 13.4
Feb 24	751LV	President (FL) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +20.0	Actual Trump +18.7	Difference 1.3
Feb 24	514LV	President (FL) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Clinton +16.0	Actual Clinton +31.2	Difference 15.2
Feb 14-15	687LV	President (NV) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +20.0	Actual Trump +22.1	Difference 2.1
Feb 14-15	516LV	President (NV) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Clinton +6.0	Actual Clinton +5.4	Difference 0.6
Feb 11-13	507LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +18.0	Actual Clinton +47.4	Difference 29.4
Feb 11-13	1,281LV	President (SC) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +18.0	Actual Trump +10.0	Difference 8.0
Feb 7	705LV	President (NH) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +11.0	Actual Trump +19.5	Difference 8.5
Feb 2-4	702LV	President (NH) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Sanders +16.0	Actual Sanders +22.5	Difference 6.5
Feb 2-4	871LV	President (NH) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +16.0	Actual Trump +19.5	Difference 3.5
Jan 26-27	724LV	President (IA) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +4.0	Actual Cruz +3.3	Difference 7.3
Jan 26-27	810LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Clinton +11.0	Actual Clinton +0.3	Difference 10.7
Jan 11-12	422LV	President (IA) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +6.0	Actual Cruz +3.3	Difference 9.3
Jan 11-12	461LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Clinton +21.0	Actual Clinton +0.3	Difference 20.7

2015

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
May 28	509LV	House (MS-1) Special runoff	IVR	Poll Kelly +17.0	Actual Kelly +39.9	Difference 22.9

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30	1,006LV	Senate (NC) General election	IVR	Poll Tillis +1.0	Actual Tillis +1.6	Difference 0.6
Oct 23-24	604LV	House (MT-1) General election	IVR	Poll Zinke +12.0	Actual Zinke +15.0	Difference 3.0
Oct 23-24	604LV	Senate (MT) General election	IVR	Poll Daines +14.0	Actual Daines +17.7	Difference 3.7
Oct 22-24	861LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Crist +2.0	Actual Scott +1.1	Difference 3.1
Oct 20-21	1,124LV	Governor (KS) General election	IVR	Poll Davis +5.0	Actual Brownback +3.7	Difference 8.7
Oct 21	964LV	Senate (IA) General election	IVR	Poll Ernst +6.0	Actual Ernst +8.3	Difference 2.3
Oct 20-21	1,124LV	Senate (KS) General election	IVR	Poll Orman +2.0	Actual Roberts +10.6	Difference 12.6
Oct 16-17	1,022LV	Senate (NC) General election	IVR	Poll Tillis +5.0	Actual Tillis +1.6	Difference 3.4
Oct 16	695LV	Governor (CO) General election	IVR	Poll Beauprez +4.0	Actual Hickenlooper +3.3	Difference 7.3
Oct 16	695LV	Senate (CO) General election	IVR	Poll Gardner +5.0	Actual Gardner +1.9	Difference 3.1

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 4-5	1,316LV	President (OH) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +3.0	Difference 2.0
Nov 4-5	1,060LV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Obama +0.9	Difference 0.9
Nov 4	1,060LV	President (PA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Obama +5.4	Difference 2.4
Nov 4	1,130LV	President (NC) General election	IVR	Poll Romney +4.0	Actual Romney +2.0	Difference 2.0
Nov 3-4	872LV	President (National) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 3.9
Nov 1-2	509LV	President (ME-2) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Obama +8.6	Difference 5.6
Nov 1	497LV	President (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +5.6	Difference 4.6
Nov 1	594LV	President (IA) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +4.0	Actual Obama +5.8	Difference 1.8
Oct 30	549LV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Romney +3.0	Actual Obama +0.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 30	549LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Nelson +3.0	Actual Nelson +13.0	Difference 10.0
Oct 28	1,168LV	House (NE-2) General election	IVR	Poll Terry +14.0	Actual Terry +1.6	Difference 12.4
Oct 28	1,168LV	President (NE) General election	IVR	Poll Romney +22.0	Actual Romney +21.9	Difference 0.1
Oct 28	1,168LV	Senate (NE) General election	IVR	Poll Fischer +12.0	Actual Fischer +15.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 27	730LV	Senate (OH) General election	IVR	Poll Brown +1.0	Actual Brown +6.0	Difference 5.0
Oct 27	730LV	President (OH) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +3.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 26	645LV	Senate (VA) General election	IVR	Poll Allen +2.0	Actual Kaine +5.9	Difference 7.9
Oct 26	645LV	President (VA) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 24	1,723LV	President (NC) General election	IVR	Poll Romney +8.0	Actual Romney +2.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 24	1,182LV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Romney +1.0	Actual Obama +0.9	Difference 1.9
Oct 24	517LV	President (IA) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +4.0	Actual Obama +5.8	Difference 1.8
Oct 24	955LV	President (NV) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +6.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 21	887LV	President (PA) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Obama +5.4	Difference 2.4
Oct 18-19	1,943LV	President (OH) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Obama +3.0	Difference 3.0
Oct 18	805LV	President (National) General election	IVR	Poll Romney +2.0	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 5.9

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

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Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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