Pollster Ratings - Harstad Strategic Research Inc.

Harstad Strategic Research Inc.

Pollsters with a relatively small number of polls now receive a provisional rating rather than a precise letter grade.

B/C

Polls analyzed	11
Races called correctly	77%
Most recent cycle	2014
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	No

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 19-23	1,004LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Udall (D) +1.0	Actual Gardner (R) +1.9	Difference 2.9
Oct 18-22	700LV	Senate (AK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Sullivan (R) +2.1	Difference 2.1

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-24	600LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Casey (D) +12.0	Actual Casey (D) +9.1	Difference 2.9
Oct 15-17	603LV	Senate (MO) General election	Live Phone	Poll McCaskill (D) +12.0	Actual McCaskill (D) +15.7	Difference 3.7

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 19-22	503LV	Senate (ID) General election	Live Phone	Poll Risch (R) +12.0	Actual Risch (R) +23.5	Difference 11.5
Oct 19-22	503LV	President (ID) General election	Live Phone	Poll McCain (R) +23.0	Actual McCain (R) +25.4	Difference 2.4
Oct 19-22	273LV	House (ID-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Minnick (D) +7.0	Actual Minnick (D) +1.2	Difference 5.8
Oct 19-22	230LV	House (ID-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Simpson (R) +44.0	Actual Simpson (R) +42.0	Difference 2.0

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24-25	662LV	Senate (MT) General election	Live Phone	Poll Tester (D) +6.0	Actual Tester (D) +0.9	Difference 5.1

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 17-18	515LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Salazar (D) +6.0	Actual Salazar (D) +4.8	Difference 1.2

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 14-15	400LV	House (CO-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Feeley (D) +1.0	Actual Beauprez (R) +0.1	Difference 1.1

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