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PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

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IBD/TIPP

A+

Polls analyzed	31
Races called correctly	81%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	Yes

How accurate are the polls from IBD/TIPP?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-Nov 2	1,212LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden (D) +4.0	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 29-Nov 2	1,212LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden (D) +4.8	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 0.3
Oct 24-28	945LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden (D) +5.5	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 1.0
Oct 24-28	945LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden (D) +4.7	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 0.2
Oct 19-23	1,029LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden (D) +6.4	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 1.9
Oct 19-23	1,029LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden (D) +5.6	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 1.1
Oct 14-18	949LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden (D) +5.2	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 0.7
Oct 14-18	949LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden (D) +6.2	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 1.7

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-Nov 3	798LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Candidate (D) +9.0	Actual Candidate (D) +9.9	Difference 0.9

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 4-7	1,107LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +1.5	Actual Clinton (D) +2.1	Difference 3.6
Nov 4-7	1,107LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +1.0	Actual Clinton (D) +2.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 30-Nov 3	898LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +1.2	Actual Clinton (D) +2.1	Difference 0.9
Oct 30-Nov 3	898LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +0.5	Actual Clinton (D) +2.1	Difference 1.6
Oct 24-29	1,039LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +3.6	Actual Clinton (D) +2.1	Difference 1.5
Oct 24-29	1,039LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +2.5	Actual Clinton (D) +2.1	Difference 0.4
Oct 18-23	815LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +0.1	Actual Clinton (D) +2.1	Difference 2.0
Oct 18-23	815LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +0.3	Actual Clinton (D) +2.1	Difference 2.4

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 3-5	712LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +1.6	Actual Obama (D) +3.8	Difference 2.2
Oct 22-27	942LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +1.3	Actual Obama (D) +3.8	Difference 2.5
Oct 16-21	885LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +4.0	Actual Obama (D) +3.8	Difference 0.2

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-3	981LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +8.0	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 0.7
Oct 31-Nov 2	1,014LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +4.5	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 2.8
Oct 27-31	970LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +5.0	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 2.3
Oct 27-29	894LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +4.4	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 2.9
Oct 22-26	886LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +3.0	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 4.3
Oct 22-24	886LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +3.2	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 4.1
Oct 17-21	1,050LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +4.0	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 3.3
Oct 17-19	1,088LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +6.0	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 1.3
Oct 12-16	850LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +5.0	Actual Obama (D) +7.3	Difference 2.3

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-Nov 1	1,284LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +3.3	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 0.8
Oct 26-29	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +2.0	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 22-25	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +5.0	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 2.5
Oct 18-21	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +1.0	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 18-21	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 2.5
Oct 14-17	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +4.0	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 14-17	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +3.0	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 10-13	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +3.0	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 10-13	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +4.0	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 1.5

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 4-6	1,292LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +1.9	Actual Gore (D) +0.5	Difference 2.4
Nov 1-3	883LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +7.0	Actual Gore (D) +0.5	Difference 7.5
Oct 29-31	1,016LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +4.0	Actual Gore (D) +0.5	Difference 4.5
Oct 19-22	829LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +2.0	Actual Gore (D) +0.5	Difference 2.5

Show all

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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