UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

InsiderAdvantage

Also known as Opinion Savvy

Polls analyzed	182
Races called correctly	69%
Most recent cycle	2022
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names	Opinion Savvy

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from InsiderAdvantage?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2022

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Dec 4	750LV	Senate (GA) Runoff	Text	Poll Warnock +2.1	Actual Warnock +2.8	Difference 0.7
Nov 6	550LV	Governor (GA) General election	Text	Poll Kemp +5.0	Actual Kemp +7.5	Difference 2.5
Nov 6	550LV	Senate (GA) General election	Text	Poll Walker +2.0	Actual Warnock +1.0	Difference 3.0
Nov 5	700LV	Governor (NH) General election	Text	Poll Sununu +15.3	Actual Sununu +15.6	Difference 0.3
Nov 5	700LV	Senate (NH) General election	Text	Poll Hassan +1.8	Actual Hassan +9.1	Difference 7.3
Nov 4	550LV	Governor (NV) General election	Text	Poll Lombardo +5.2	Actual Lombardo +1.5	Difference 3.7
Nov 4	550LV	Senate (NV) General election	Text	Poll Laxalt +6.0	Actual Cortez Masto +0.8	Difference 6.8
Nov 3	750LV	Governor (PA) General election	Text	Poll Shapiro +7.7	Actual Shapiro +14.8	Difference 7.1
Nov 3	750LV	Senate (PA) General election	Text	Poll Oz +2.3	Actual Fetterman +4.9	Difference 7.2
Nov 2	550LV	Governor (AZ) General election	Text	Poll Lake +3.0	Actual Hobbs +0.7	Difference 3.7
Nov 2	550LV	Senate (AZ) General election	Text	Poll Even	Actual Kelly +4.9	Difference 4.9
Nov 1	550LV	Governor (FL) General election	Text	Poll DeSantis +10.0	Actual DeSantis +19.4	Difference 9.4
Nov 1	550LV	Senate (FL) General election	Text	Poll Rubio +6.0	Actual Rubio +16.4	Difference 10.4
Oct 31	550LV	Senate (WA) General election	Text	Poll Murray +1.6	Actual Murray +14.6	Difference 13.0
Oct 30	550LV	Governor (MI) General election	Text	Poll Dixon +0.2	Actual Whitmer +10.5	Difference 10.7
Oct 27	550LV	Governor (GA) General election	Text	Poll Kemp +8.4	Actual Kemp +7.5	Difference 0.9
Oct 27	550LV	Senate (GA) General election	Text	Poll Walker +2.2	Actual Warnock +1.0	Difference 3.2
Oct 26	750LV	Governor (PA) General election	Text	Poll Shapiro +8.4	Actual Shapiro +14.8	Difference 6.4
Oct 26	750LV	Senate (PA) General election	Text	Poll Oz +2.7	Actual Fetterman +4.9	Difference 7.6
Oct 25	750LV	House (National) General election	Text	Poll Republicans +4.7	Actual Republicans +2.7	Difference 2.0
Oct 24-25	550LV	Governor (AZ) General election	Live Phone/Text	Poll Lake +11.0	Actual Hobbs +0.7	Difference 11.7
Oct 24-25	550LV	Senate (AZ) General election	Live Phone/Text	Poll Kelly +2.0	Actual Kelly +4.9	Difference 2.9
Oct 23	600LV	Governor (NH) General election	Text	Poll Sununu +16.9	Actual Sununu +15.6	Difference 1.3
Oct 23	600LV	Senate (NH) General election	Text	Poll Hassan +0.5	Actual Hassan +9.1	Difference 8.6
Oct 20	550LV	Governor (NV) General election	Text	Poll Lombardo +5.7	Actual Lombardo +1.5	Difference 4.2
Oct 20	550LV	Senate (NV) General election	Text	Poll Laxalt +1.9	Actual Cortez Masto +0.8	Difference 2.7
Oct 19	550LV	Governor (PA) General election	Text	Poll Shapiro +6.3	Actual Shapiro +14.8	Difference 8.5
Oct 19	550LV	Senate (PA) General election	Text	Poll Fetterman +0.8	Actual Fetterman +4.9	Difference 4.1

2021

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-30	500LV	Governor (VA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Youngkin +2.0	Actual Youngkin +1.9	Difference 0.1

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Jan 3	500LV	Senate (GA) Runoff	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Perdue +0.1	Actual Ossoff +1.2	Difference 1.3
Jan 3	500LV	Senate (GA) Special runoff	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Loeffler +0.5	Actual Warnock +2.1	Difference 2.6
Dec 21-22	500LV	Senate (GA) Runoff	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Perdue +1.9	Actual Ossoff +1.2	Difference 3.1
Dec 21-22	500LV	Senate (GA) Special runoff	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Warnock +1.2	Actual Warnock +2.1	Difference 0.9
Nov 1-2	400LV	President (FL) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Trump +1.2	Actual Trump +3.4	Difference 2.2
Nov 1	500LV	President (GA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Trump +2.0	Actual Biden +0.2	Difference 2.2
Oct 30-31	500LV	President (PA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Trump +1.3	Actual Biden +1.2	Difference 2.5
Oct 30-31	450LV	President (NC) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Trump +4.4	Actual Trump +1.4	Difference 3.0
Oct 30-31	500LV	President (MI) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Biden +2.1	Actual Biden +2.8	Difference 0.7
Oct 30	400LV	Senate (IA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Ernst +5.6	Actual Ernst +6.6	Difference 1.0
Oct 30	400LV	President (IA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Trump +1.7	Actual Trump +8.2	Difference 6.5
Oct 25	400LV	President (PA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Trump +2.9	Actual Biden +1.2	Difference 4.1
Oct 18-19	400LV	Senate (IA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Greenfield +4.7	Actual Ernst +6.6	Difference 11.3
Oct 18-19	400LV	President (IA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Biden +0.5	Actual Trump +8.2	Difference 8.7
Oct 12-13	400LV	President (PA) General election	IVR/Live Phone	Poll Biden +3.2	Actual Biden +1.2	Difference 2.0

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-29	623LV	Governor (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Abrams +0.9	Actual Kemp +1.4	Difference 2.3
Oct 21-22	824LV	Governor (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Kemp +0.7	Actual Kemp +1.4	Difference 0.7

2017

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Jun 14	537LV	House (GA-6) Special runoff	IVR/Online	Poll Ossoff +0.3	Actual Handel +3.6	Difference 3.9
Apr 13	437LV	House (GA-6) Special jungle primary	IVR/Online	Poll Ossoff +20.3	Actual Ossoff +28.4	Difference 8.1

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 5-6	843LV	President (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 3.2
Nov 2-3	538LV	President (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +3.8	Actual Trump +5.1	Difference 1.3
Nov 2-3	538LV	Senate (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Isakson +10.8	Actual Isakson +13.8	Difference 3.0
Nov 1-2	603LV	President (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +4.3	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 5.5
Nov 1-2	603LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Rubio +3.6	Actual Rubio +7.7	Difference 4.1
Oct 20	570LV	President (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +4.0	Actual Trump +5.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 20	538LV	President (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +4.0	Actual Trump +1.2	Difference 5.2
Oct 20	538LV	Senate (FL) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Even	Actual Rubio +7.7	Difference 7.7
Oct 20	570LV	Senate (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Isakson +9.4	Actual Isakson +13.8	Difference 4.4
Apr 24	1,050LV	President (PA) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +19.7	Actual Trump +34.9	Difference 15.2
Apr 24	942LV	President (PA) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +11.6	Actual Clinton +12.0	Difference 0.4
Mar 20	607LV	President (AZ) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +12.5	Actual Trump +18.3	Difference 5.8
Mar 13	787LV	President (FL) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +18.1	Actual Trump +18.7	Difference 0.6
Mar 9	590LV	President (FL) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +19.0	Actual Trump +18.7	Difference 0.3
Feb 28	712LV	President (TX) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Cruz +11.0	Actual Cruz +17.2	Difference 6.2
Feb 27-28	710LV	President (GA) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +10.0	Actual Trump +14.4	Difference 4.4
Feb 25-26	460LV	President (AL) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +19.6	Actual Trump +22.5	Difference 2.9
Feb 22-23	745LV	President (GA) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +12.0	Actual Trump +14.4	Difference 2.4
Feb 22-23	491LV	President (GA) Democratic primary	IVR/Online	Poll Clinton +28.0	Actual Clinton +43.1	Difference 15.1
Feb 18-19	780LV	President (SC) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +2.8	Actual Trump +10.0	Difference 7.2
Feb 10-11	779LV	President (SC) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +21.0	Actual Trump +10.0	Difference 11.0
Jan 29-30	887LV	President (IA) Republican primary	IVR/Online	Poll Trump +0.7	Actual Cruz +3.3	Difference 4.0

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-Nov 2	1,463LV	Governor (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Deal +3.0	Actual Deal +7.9	Difference 4.9
Oct 30-Nov 2	1,463LV	Senate (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Perdue +3.0	Actual Perdue +7.7	Difference 4.7
Oct 21-22	704LV	Governor (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Carter +0.1	Actual Deal +7.9	Difference 8.0
Oct 21-22	704LV	Senate (GA) General election	IVR/Online	Poll Nunn +2.4	Actual Perdue +7.7	Difference 10.1

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 4	437LV	President (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Romney +5.0	Actual Obama +0.9	Difference 5.9
Mar 4	751LV	President (GA) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Gingrich +26.0	Actual Gingrich +21.3	Difference 4.7
Feb 20	721LV	President (GA) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Gingrich +2.0	Actual Gingrich +21.3	Difference 19.3
Jan 29	646LV	President (FL) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Romney +5.0	Actual Romney +14.5	Difference 9.5
Jan 25	530LV	President (FL) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Romney +8.0	Actual Romney +14.5	Difference 6.5
Jan 22	557LV	President (FL) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Gingrich +8.8	Actual Romney +14.5	Difference 23.3
Jan 18	718LV	President (SC) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Gingrich +2.8	Actual Gingrich +12.6	Difference 9.8
Jan 15	720LV	President (SC) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Romney +11.0	Actual Gingrich +12.6	Difference 23.6
Jan 11	726LV	President (SC) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Romney +1.8	Actual Gingrich +12.6	Difference 14.4
Jan 1	729LV	President (IA) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Romney +5.0	Actual Santorum +0.0	Difference 5.0
Dec 28	429LV	President (IA) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Romney +4.0	Actual Santorum +0.0	Difference 4.0
Dec 18	391LV	President (IA) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Romney +15.0	Actual Santorum +0.0	Difference 15.0

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 24	2,119LV	Governor (GA) General election	IVR	Poll Deal +5.8	Actual Deal +10.0	Difference 4.2
Oct 19	878RV	Governor (SC) General election	IVR	Poll Haley +14.0	Actual Haley +4.5	Difference 9.5
Oct 18	507LV	Governor (GA) General election	IVR	Poll Deal +5.5	Actual Deal +10.0	Difference 4.5
Jan 17	804LV	Senate (MA) Special election	IVR	Poll Brown +9.1	Actual Brown +4.8	Difference 4.3

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 30	744LV	Senate (GA) Runoff	Live Phone	Poll Chambliss +4.0	Actual Chambliss +14.9	Difference 10.9
Nov 23	523LV	Senate (GA) Runoff	Live Phone	Poll Chambliss +3.0	Actual Chambliss +14.9	Difference 11.9
Nov 2	512LV	President (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll McCain +1.0	Actual McCain +5.2	Difference 4.2
Nov 2	512LV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Chambliss +5.0	Actual Chambliss +2.9	Difference 2.1
Oct 29	641LV	President (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Obama +0.3	Difference 0.3
Oct 29	814LV	President (MO) General election	Live Phone	Poll McCain +3.0	Actual McCain +0.1	Difference 2.9
Oct 27	637LV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Chambliss +2.0	Actual Chambliss +2.9	Difference 0.9
Oct 27	637LV	President (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll McCain +1.0	Actual McCain +5.2	Difference 4.2
Oct 26	588LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +9.0	Actual Obama +10.3	Difference 1.3
Oct 26	636LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +8.0	Actual Obama +9.0	Difference 1.0
Oct 23	615LV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Chambliss +2.0	Actual Chambliss +2.9	Difference 0.9
Oct 23	615LV	President (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual McCain +5.2	Difference 6.2
Oct 22	408LV	President (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +10.0	Actual Obama +4.6	Difference 5.4
Oct 22	562LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +2.8	Difference 1.8
Oct 20	576LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +5.0	Actual Obama +9.0	Difference 4.0
Oct 19	690LV	President (NV) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Obama +12.6	Difference 12.6
Oct 19	698LV	President (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +0.3	Difference 0.7
May 5	774LV	President (NC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +4.0	Actual Obama +14.7	Difference 10.7
May 4	781LV	President (NC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Obama +14.7	Difference 11.7
May 4	502LV	President (IN) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +4.0	Actual Clinton +1.1	Difference 2.9
May 1	611LV	President (NC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +5.0	Actual Obama +14.7	Difference 9.7
Apr 30-May 1	478LV	President (IN) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +7.0	Actual Clinton +1.1	Difference 5.9
Apr 29	571LV	President (NC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +2.0	Actual Obama +14.7	Difference 16.7
Apr 21	712LV	President (PA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +7.0	Actual Clinton +9.1	Difference 2.1
Apr 20	747LV	President (PA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +10.0	Actual Clinton +9.1	Difference 0.9
Apr 8	681LV	President (PA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +10.0	Actual Clinton +9.1	Difference 0.9
Apr 2	659LV	President (PA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +3.0	Actual Clinton +9.1	Difference 6.1
Mar 9	338LV	President (MS) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +17.0	Actual Obama +24.4	Difference 7.4
Mar 6	412LV	President (MS) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +6.0	Actual Obama +24.4	Difference 18.4
Mar 2	609LV	President (TX) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +5.0	Actual Clinton +3.5	Difference 1.5
Feb 27	591LV	President (TX) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +4.0	Actual Clinton +3.5	Difference 0.5
Feb 25	592LV	President (TX) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Clinton +3.5	Difference 4.5
Feb 14	403LV	President (TX) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +7.0	Actual Clinton +3.5	Difference 3.5
Feb 7	501LV	President (VA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +15.0	Actual Obama +28.2	Difference 13.2
Feb 4	1,212LV	President (GA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Huckabee +2.3	Difference 2.3
Feb 4	435LV	President (AL) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +2.0	Actual Obama +14.5	Difference 12.5
Feb 3	465LV	President (GA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +6.0	Actual Huckabee +2.3	Difference 8.3
Feb 3	566LV	President (AL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Huckabee +9.0	Actual Huckabee +4.2	Difference 4.8
Feb 3	600LV	President (AL) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +14.5	Difference 13.5
Feb 2	474LV	President (TN) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +2.0	Actual Huckabee +2.7	Difference 4.7
Feb 2	485LV	President (TN) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +20.0	Actual Clinton +13.4	Difference 6.6
Feb 2	388LV	President (GA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +1.0	Actual Huckabee +2.3	Difference 3.3
Feb 2	342LV	President (GA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +15.0	Actual Obama +35.3	Difference 20.3
Jan 31	566LV	President (AL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +2.0	Actual Huckabee +4.2	Difference 6.2
Jan 31	424LV	President (AL) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +6.0	Actual Obama +14.5	Difference 20.5
Jan 30	375LV	President (TN) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +8.0	Actual Huckabee +2.7	Difference 10.7
Jan 30	463LV	President (TN) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +22.0	Actual Clinton +13.4	Difference 8.6
Jan 30	362LV	President (GA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +11.0	Actual Huckabee +2.3	Difference 13.3
Jan 30	301LV	President (GA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +16.0	Actual Obama +35.3	Difference 19.3
Jan 28	813LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +1.0	Actual McCain +5.0	Difference 4.0
Jan 27	789LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +1.0	Actual McCain +5.0	Difference 4.0
Jan 26	657LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual McCain +5.0	Difference 5.0
Jan 25	692LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Romney +2.0	Actual McCain +5.0	Difference 7.0
Jan 24	420LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +0.1	Actual McCain +5.0	Difference 4.9
Jan 23	501LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +1.0	Actual McCain +5.0	Difference 4.0
Jan 20-21	512LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Romney +6.0	Actual McCain +5.0	Difference 11.0
Jan 18	635LV	President (SC) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Huckabee +0.3	Actual McCain +3.3	Difference 3.6
Jan 15-16	446LV	President (FL) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual McCain +5.0	Difference 5.0
Jan 15-16	360LV	President (FL) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +8.0	Actual Clinton +16.8	Difference 8.8
Jan 14-15	400LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +9.9	Actual Obama +28.9	Difference 19.0
Jan 2	430LV	President (IA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Huckabee +6.0	Actual Huckabee +9.2	Difference 3.2
Dec 28-29	788LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Edwards +7.0	Actual Obama +3.7	Difference 10.7
Dec 16-17	418LV	President (IA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Romney +3.0	Actual Huckabee +9.2	Difference 12.2
Dec 16-17	835LV	President (IA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Huckabee +3.0	Actual Huckabee +9.2	Difference 6.2
Dec 16-17	977LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Edwards +6.0	Actual Obama +3.7	Difference 9.7
Dec 16-17	633LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +3.7	Difference 2.7

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-2	500LV	Governor (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Perdue +14.0	Actual Perdue +19.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 29-31	500LV	Governor (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Perdue +10.0	Actual Perdue +19.7	Difference 9.7
Oct 22-26	600LV	House (GA-12) General election	Live Phone	Poll Barrow +3.0	Actual Barrow +0.6	Difference 2.4
Oct 23-25	500LV	Governor (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Perdue +17.0	Actual Perdue +19.7	Difference 2.7
Oct 20-23	600LV	House (FL-22) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shaw +1.0	Actual Klein +3.8	Difference 4.8
Oct 20-22	500LV	Governor (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Perdue +17.0	Actual Perdue +19.7	Difference 2.7
Oct 17-19	500LV	Governor (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Perdue +16.0	Actual Perdue +19.7	Difference 3.7

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-31	400LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Castor +1.0	Actual Martinez +1.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 29-31	400LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Bush +5.0	Difference 5.0
Oct 22-24	400LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Martinez +2.0	Actual Martinez +1.1	Difference 0.9
Oct 18-21	400LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Castor +7.0	Actual Martinez +1.1	Difference 8.1
Oct 18-21	400LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Bush +5.0	Difference 5.0
Oct 14-16	400LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +4.0	Actual Bush +5.0	Difference 9.0
Oct 11-12	400LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +3.0	Actual Bush +5.0	Difference 2.0
Feb 29-Mar 1	500LV	President (GA) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Kerry +17.0	Actual Kerry +5.4	Difference 11.6
Feb 28-29	500LV	President (GA) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Kerry +21.0	Actual Kerry +5.4	Difference 15.6
Feb 26-28	300LV	President (OH) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +33.0	Actual Kerry +17.7	Difference 15.3
Feb 26-27	300LV	President (GA) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Kerry +26.0	Actual Kerry +5.4	Difference 20.6
Feb 25-26	300LV	President (GA) Democratic primary	IVR	Poll Kerry +30.0	Actual Kerry +5.4	Difference 24.6
Feb 7-9	449LV	President (TN) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +32.0	Actual Kerry +14.6	Difference 17.4
Feb 1-2	500LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Edwards +8.0	Actual Edwards +15.3	Difference 7.3
Jan 31-Feb 1	500LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Edwards +4.0	Actual Edwards +15.3	Difference 11.3
Jan 30-Feb 1	800LV	President (OK) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clark +9.0	Actual Clark +0.4	Difference 8.6
Jan 30-31	500LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Edwards +9.0	Actual Edwards +15.3	Difference 6.3
Jan 29-30	500LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Edwards +6.0	Actual Edwards +15.3	Difference 9.3
Jan 28-29	500LV	President (SC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Edwards +7.0	Actual Edwards +15.3	Difference 8.3
Jan 27-29	300LV	President (AZ) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +5.0	Actual Kerry +16.1	Difference 11.1
Jan 16-18	600LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +8.0	Actual Kerry +4.5	Difference 3.5
Jan 16-18	904LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +12.0	Actual Kerry +4.5	Difference 7.5

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

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Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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