UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

A/B

Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group

Polls analyzed	33
Races called correctly	58%
Most recent cycle	2012
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2012

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 4-5	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 29-Nov 1	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Democrats +1.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 29-Nov 1	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 22-25	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +1.0	Actual Democrats +1.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 22-25	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +1.0	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 2.9
Oct 14-18	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Democrats +1.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 14-18	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Romney +2.0	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 5.9

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 17-20	600LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +5.0	Actual Republicans +6.8	Difference 1.8

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 2-3	400LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +5.0	Actual Obama +7.3	Difference 2.3
Oct 27-30	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +4.0	Actual Obama +7.3	Difference 3.3
Oct 23-29	600LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +4.0	Actual Democrats +11.1	Difference 7.1
Oct 23-29	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +4.0	Actual Democrats +11.1	Difference 7.1
Oct 20-26	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Obama +7.3	Difference 4.3
Oct 16-22	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +8.0	Actual Democrats +11.1	Difference 3.1
Oct 13-19	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +4.0	Actual Obama +7.3	Difference 3.3

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 1	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +3.0	Actual Republicans +2.7	Difference 0.3
Oct 31-Nov 1	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +4.0	Actual Bush +2.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 31-Nov 1	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +6.0	Actual Bush +2.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 25-28	600LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +1.0	Actual Republicans +2.7	Difference 3.7
Oct 26-28	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +5.0	Actual Bush +2.5	Difference 2.5
Oct 25-28	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Republicans +2.7	Difference 2.7
Oct 18-21	600LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +3.0	Actual Republicans +2.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 18-21	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +4.0	Actual Republicans +2.7	Difference 6.7
Oct 18-21	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +4.0	Actual Bush +2.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 12-14	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +3.0	Actual Bush +2.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 11-14	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +4.0	Actual Republicans +2.7	Difference 6.7

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 5-6	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +2.0	Actual Republicans +0.4	Difference 2.4
Nov 5-6	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +5.0	Actual Gore +0.5	Difference 5.5
Oct 30-Nov 2	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +9.0	Actual Gore +0.5	Difference 9.5
Oct 30-Nov 2	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +1.0	Actual Republicans +0.4	Difference 0.6
Oct 24-29	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +4.0	Actual Republicans +0.4	Difference 4.4
Oct 24-29	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +5.0	Actual Gore +0.5	Difference 5.5
Oct 22-26	400LV	President (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +1.0	Actual Gore +0.2	Difference 0.8
Oct 22-26	400LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +5.0	Actual Gore +4.2	Difference 0.8
Oct 22-26	400LV	President (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +1.0	Actual Gore +5.1	Difference 4.1
Oct 18-23	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +6.0	Actual Gore +0.5	Difference 6.5
Oct 18-23	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +2.0	Actual Republicans +0.4	Difference 2.4

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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