A
| Polls analyzed | 189 |
| Races called correctly | 83% |
| Most recent cycle | 2020 |
| Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from Marist College?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 717LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Kelly (D) +6.0 | Actual Kelly (D) +2.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 772LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +5.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 717LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Biden (D) +0.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 25-28 | 800LV | President (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +6.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Oct 25-28 | 800LV | Governor (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cooper (D) +19.0 | Actual Cooper (D) +4.5 | Difference 14.5 |
| Oct 25-28 | 800LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cunningham (D) +10.0 | Actual Tillis (R) +1.7 | Difference 11.7 |
| Oct 25-27 | 743LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +4.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.4 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 19-21 | 650LV | House (NY-11) General election | Live Phone | Poll Malliotakis (R) +2.0 | Actual Malliotakis (R) +6.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Feb 23-27 | 556LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Sanders (D) +15.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.7 | Difference 19.7 |
| Feb 23-27 | 568LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Sanders (D) +2.0 | Actual Biden (D) +18.7 | Difference 20.7 |
| Feb 18-21 | 539LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +4.0 | Actual Biden (D) +28.9 | Difference 24.9 |
| Feb 4-6 | 441LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +81.0 | Actual Trump (R) +75.4 | Difference 5.6 |
| Feb 4-6 | 709LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Sanders (D) +4.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +1.3 | Difference 2.7 |
2018
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 595LV | Governor (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gillum (D) +4.0 | Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 595LV | Senate (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Nelson (D) +4.0 | Actual Scott (R) +0.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 600LV | Senate (MO) General election | Live Phone | Poll McCaskill (D) +3.0 | Actual Hawley (R) +5.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 28-29 | 509LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +9.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +9.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 24-28 | 496LV | Senate (IN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Donnelly (D) +2.0 | Actual Braun (R) +5.9 | Difference 7.9 |
| Oct 24-28 | 496LV | Senate (IN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Donnelly (D) +3.0 | Actual Braun (R) +5.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 23-27 | 471LV | Governor (TN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Lee (R) +17.0 | Actual Lee (R) +21.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 23-27 | 506LV | Governor (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ducey (R) +13.0 | Actual Ducey (R) +14.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 23-27 | 471LV | Senate (TN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Blackburn (R) +5.0 | Actual Blackburn (R) +10.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 23-27 | 506LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Sinema (D) +3.0 | Actual Sinema (D) +2.3 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 23-27 | 506LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Sinema (D) +6.0 | Actual Sinema (D) +2.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 23-27 | 506LV | Governor (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ducey (R) +14.0 | Actual Ducey (R) +14.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 21-23 | 738RV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +10.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +9.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 14-18 | 554LV | Governor (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kemp (R) +2.0 | Actual Kemp (R) +1.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 14-18 | 554LV | Governor (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kemp (R) +1.0 | Actual Kemp (R) +1.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 13-18 | 511LV | Senate (MS) Special jungle primary | Live Phone | Poll Hyde-Smith (D) +43.0 | Actual Hyde-Smith (D) +40.9 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 13-18 | 511LV | Senate (MS) Special jungle primary | Live Phone | Poll Hyde-Smith (R) +9.0 | Actual Hyde-Smith (R) +0.3 | Difference 8.7 |
| Oct 13-18 | 511LV | Senate (MS) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wicker (R) +26.0 | Actual Wicker (R) +19.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 13-18 | 511LV | Senate (MS) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wicker (R) +28.0 | Actual Wicker (R) +19.0 | Difference 9.0 |
2016
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-3 | 940LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +1.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +0.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Nov 1-3 | 940LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +2.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Nov 1-3 | 940LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +1.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 719LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +5.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 679LV | President (TX) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +8.0 | Actual Trump (R) +9.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 707LV | President (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +1.0 | Actual Trump (R) +5.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 719LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +16.0 | Actual McCain (R) +13.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 707LV | Senate (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Isakson (R) +11.0 | Actual Isakson (R) +13.8 | Difference 2.8 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 679LV | President (TX) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +9.0 | Actual Trump (R) +9.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 25-26 | 780LV | President (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Oct 25-26 | 779LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +1.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.2 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 25-26 | 779LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Trump (R) +1.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 25-26 | 779LV | Senate (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Rubio (R) +8.0 | Actual Rubio (R) +7.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 25-26 | 780LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Burr (R) +5.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 25-26 | 780LV | Governor (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cooper (D) +6.0 | Actual Cooper (D) +0.2 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 20-24 | 707LV | Senate (NV) General election | Live Phone | Poll Heck (R) +7.0 | Actual Cortez Masto (D) +2.4 | Difference 9.4 |
| Oct 20-24 | 768LV | Governor (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Van Ostern (D) +1.0 | Actual Sununu (R) +2.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 20-24 | 707LV | President (NV) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Clinton (D) +2.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 20-24 | 768LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +8.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +0.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 20-24 | 768LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +9.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +0.4 | Difference 8.6 |
| Oct 20-24 | 768LV | Senate (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ayotte (R) +1.0 | Actual Hassan (D) +0.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| May 29-31 | 557LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +2.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +7.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Apr 26-28 | 449LV | President (IN) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +4.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Apr 26-28 | 645LV | President (IN) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +15.0 | Actual Trump (R) +16.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Apr 18-20 | 571LV | President (PA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +18.0 | Actual Trump (R) +34.8 | Difference 16.8 |
| Apr 18-20 | 734LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +15.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +11.9 | Difference 3.1 |
| Apr 10-13 | 313LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +29.0 | Actual Trump (R) +35.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Apr 10-13 | 591LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +17.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Apr 6-10 | 259LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +33.0 | Actual Trump (R) +35.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Apr 6-10 | 557LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +14.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Apr 5-9 | 368LV | President (MD) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +17.0 | Actual Trump (R) +30.9 | Difference 13.9 |
| Apr 5-9 | 775LV | President (MD) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +22.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +28.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Mar 4-10 | 564LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Kasich (R) +6.0 | Actual Kasich (R) +11.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Mar 4-10 | 453LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +20.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +13.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Mar 4-10 | 421LV | President (IL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +9.0 | Actual Trump (R) +8.6 | Difference 0.4 |
| Mar 4-10 | 529LV | President (IL) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +1.9 | Difference 4.1 |
| Mar 4-10 | 511LV | President (FL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +21.0 | Actual Trump (R) +18.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Mar 4-10 | 500LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +27.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +31.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Mar 1-3 | 546LV | President (MI) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +17.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +1.4 | Difference 18.4 |
| Mar 1-3 | 482LV | President (MI) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +19.0 | Actual Trump (R) +11.9 | Difference 7.1 |
| Feb 22-25 | 665LV | President (TN) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +18.0 | Actual Trump (R) +14.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Feb 22-25 | 405LV | President (TN) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +26.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +33.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Feb 18-23 | 537LV | President (TX) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Cruz (R) +13.0 | Actual Cruz (R) +17.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Feb 18-23 | 381LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +21.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +32.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Feb 18-23 | 461LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +34.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +43.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Feb 18-23 | 543LV | President (GA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +7.0 | Actual Trump (R) +14.4 | Difference 7.4 |
| Feb 15-17 | 425LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +28.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +47.4 | Difference 19.4 |
| Feb 15-17 | 722LV | President (SC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +13.0 | Actual Trump (R) +10.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Feb 2-3 | 567LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Sanders (D) +20.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +22.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Feb 2-3 | 653LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +20.0 | Actual Trump (R) +19.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Jan 24-26 | 450LV | President (IA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +7.0 | Actual Cruz (R) +3.3 | Difference 10.3 |
| Jan 24-26 | 426LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +3.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +0.3 | Difference 2.7 |
2014
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Governor (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Deal (R) +5.0 | Actual Deal (R) +7.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 27-30 | 630LV | Senate (LA) Jungle primary | Live Phone | Poll Landrieu (D) +8.0 | Actual Landrieu (D) +1.1 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Senate (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Perdue (R) +4.0 | Actual Perdue (R) +7.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Senate (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Perdue (R) +3.0 | Actual Perdue (R) +7.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 27-30 | 556LV | Senate (KY) General election | Live Phone | Poll McConnell (R) +9.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +15.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Governor (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Deal (R) +4.0 | Actual Deal (R) +7.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 26-28 | 503LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +26.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +14.0 | Difference 12.0 |
| Oct 19-23 | 730LV | Senate (SD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Rounds (R) +14.0 | Actual Rounds (R) +20.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 19-23 | 621LV | Governor (AR) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hutchinson (R) +3.0 | Actual Hutchinson (R) +13.9 | Difference 10.9 |
| Oct 19-23 | 730LV | Governor (SD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Daugaard (R) +39.0 | Actual Daugaard (R) +45.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 19-23 | 621LV | Senate (AR) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cotton (R) +2.0 | Actual Cotton (R) +17.1 | Difference 15.1 |
| Oct 19-23 | 756LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Tillis (R) +1.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 18-22 | 755LV | Governor (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hickenlooper (D) +5.0 | Actual Hickenlooper (D) +3.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 18-22 | 757LV | Governor (KS) General election | Live Phone | Poll Davis (D) +1.0 | Actual Brownback (R) +3.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 18-22 | 772LV | Governor (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Branstad (R) +23.0 | Actual Branstad (R) +21.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 18-22 | 755LV | Senate (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gardner (R) +1.0 | Actual Gardner (R) +1.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 18-22 | 757LV | Senate (KS) General election | Live Phone | Poll Orman (I) +1.0 | Actual Roberts (R) +10.6 | Difference 11.6 |
| Oct 18-22 | 772LV | Senate (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ernst (R) +3.0 | Actual Ernst (R) +8.3 | Difference 5.3 |
2012
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-2 | 1,165LV | Senate (VA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kaine (D) +3.0 | Actual Kaine (D) +5.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Nov 1-2 | 1,165LV | President (VA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +1.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 1,253RV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +5.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 1,253RV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 1,253RV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 1,545LV | Senate (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Nelson (D) +9.0 | Actual Nelson (D) +13.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 1,545LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +0.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 28-29 | 1,065LV | Senate (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Baldwin (D) +1.0 | Actual Baldwin (D) +5.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 28-29 | 1,013LV | Governor (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hassan (D) +5.0 | Actual Hassan (D) +12.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Oct 28-29 | 1,065LV | President (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 28-29 | 1,013LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 28-29 | 1,142LV | President (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.8 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 23-24 | 1,042LV | Senate (NV) General election | Live Phone | Poll Heller (R) +3.0 | Actual Heller (R) +1.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 23-24 | 1,042LV | President (NV) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 23-24 | 1,128LV | President (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Obama (D) +5.4 | Difference 5.4 |
| Oct 18-21 | 565LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +44.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +45.8 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 18-21 | 565LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +26.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.2 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 18-20 | 1,013LV | Governor (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hassan (D) +5.0 | Actual Hassan (D) +12.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Oct 15-17 | 1,013LV | Senate (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Baldwin (D) +4.0 | Actual Baldwin (D) +5.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 15-17 | 1,013LV | President (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.8 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 15-17 | 1,137LV | President (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +8.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Mar 26-27 | 740LV | President (WI) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +7.0 | Actual Romney (R) +7.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Feb 29-Mar 2 | 529LV | President (VA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +43.0 | Actual Romney (R) +19.1 | Difference 23.9 |
| Feb 29-Mar 2 | 820LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Santorum (R) +2.0 | Actual Romney (R) +1.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Feb 19-20 | 715LV | President (MI) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +2.0 | Actual Romney (R) +3.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Feb 19-20 | 767LV | President (AZ) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +16.0 | Actual Romney (R) +19.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Jan 27 | 316LV | President (FL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +15.0 | Actual Romney (R) +14.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Jan 25-27 | 682LV | President (FL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +15.0 | Actual Romney (R) +14.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Jan 25-26 | 366LV | President (FL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +14.0 | Actual Romney (R) +14.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Jan 16-17 | 684LV | President (SC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +10.0 | Actual Gingrich (R) +12.6 | Difference 22.6 |
| Jan 17 | 342LV | President (SC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +5.0 | Actual Gingrich (R) +12.6 | Difference 17.6 |
| Jan 16 | 342LV | President (SC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +15.0 | Actual Gingrich (R) +12.6 | Difference 27.6 |
| Jan 4-5 | 711LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +20.0 | Actual Romney (R) +16.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Dec 27-28 | 433LV | President (IA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +8.0 | Actual Santorum (R) +0.0 | Difference 8.0 |
2010
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26-28 | 491LV | Senate (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Johnson (R) +7.0 | Actual Johnson (R) +4.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 26-28 | 638LV | Senate (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Murray (D) +1.0 | Actual Murray (D) +4.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 26-28 | 461LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Toomey (R) +7.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +2.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 26-28 | 415LV | Senate (NY) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +15.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 12.8 |
| Oct 26-28 | 415LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +24.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 10.1 |
| Oct 26-28 | 615LV | Senate (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Buck (R) +4.0 | Actual Bennet (D) +1.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 26-28 | 491LV | Governor (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Walker (R) +7.0 | Actual Walker (R) +5.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 26-28 | 461LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corbett (R) +7.0 | Actual Corbett (R) +9.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 26-28 | 415LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +19.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 10.3 |
| Oct 26-28 | 615LV | Governor (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hickenlooper (D) +4.0 | Actual Hickenlooper (D) +14.7 | Difference 10.7 |
| Oct 22-25 | 416LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Candidate (R) +6.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 22-25 | 600LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (R) +6.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +6.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 18-20 | 505LV | Senate (NY) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +18.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 9.8 |
| Oct 18-20 | 505LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +28.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 18-20 | 505LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +23.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 14-17 | 589LV | Senate (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Murray (D) +1.0 | Actual Murray (D) +4.7 | Difference 3.7 |
2008
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | 804LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Nov 2 | 635LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 29 | 535LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 27-28 | 682LV | President (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 26-27 | 671LV | President (VA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 26-27 | 713LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +14.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 24-26 | 661LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 22-23 | 655LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 22-23 | 645LV | President (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +10.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 21-22 | 527LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +36.0 | Actual Obama (D) +26.9 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 20-21 | 628LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Lautenberg (D) +7.0 | Actual Lautenberg (D) +14.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Oct 20-21 | 628LV | President (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +17.0 | Actual Obama (D) +15.6 | Difference 1.4 |
| Jan 30-31 | 181LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +37.0 | Actual McCain (R) +24.1 | Difference 12.9 |
| Jan 30-31 | 409LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +16.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +17.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Jan 15-17 | 426LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +16.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +17.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Jan 5-6 | 477LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +4.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.4 | Difference 1.4 |
| Jan 5-6 | 636LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +8.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.6 | Difference 10.6 |
2006
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1-3 | 619LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Menendez (D) +8.0 | Actual Menendez (D) +16.0 | Difference 8.0 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 503LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +33.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +36.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 503LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Spitzer (D) +45.0 | Actual Spitzer (D) +40.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 16-18 | 475LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +36.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +36.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 16-18 | 475LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Spitzer (D) +51.0 | Actual Spitzer (D) +40.8 | Difference 10.2 |
2005
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | 377LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corzine (D) +6.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +10.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Nov 3-4 | 394LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corzine (D) +5.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +10.4 | Difference 5.4 |
| Oct 24-26 | 449LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corzine (D) +10.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +10.4 | Difference 0.4 |
2004
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | 1,026LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 31 | 1,000LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 25-26 | 817RV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +56.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +46.9 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 25-26 | 636LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +20.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +18.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 17-19 | 772LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Feb 28-29 | 397LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +54.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +41.1 | Difference 12.9 |
| Feb 25 | 400LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +42.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +41.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Feb 17-19 | 400LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +52.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +41.1 | Difference 10.9 |
| Jan 25-26 | 807LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +11.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Jan 26 | 391LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +9.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Jan 23-25 | 800LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +13.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 0.9 |
2002
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 475LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Pataki (R) +21.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +15.9 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 28-29 | 432LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Pataki (R) +21.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +15.9 | Difference 5.1 |
2000
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2-5 | 580LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +12.3 | Difference 8.3 |
| Nov 2-5 | 580LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +18.0 | Actual Gore (D) +25.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Nov 1-2 | 623LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 29-30 | 516LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +12.3 | Difference 8.3 |
| Oct 29-30 | 516LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +14.0 | Actual Gore (D) +25.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Mar 5-6 | 335LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +10.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Mar 5-6 | 461LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +26.0 | Actual Gore (D) +32.2 | Difference 6.2 |
| Feb 29-Mar 1 | 191LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Feb 29-Mar 1 | 244LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +32.0 | Actual Gore (D) +32.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Feb 20-22 | 201LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +3.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Feb 20-22 | 279LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +26.0 | Actual Gore (D) +32.2 | Difference 6.2 |
1998
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26-27 | 351LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Pataki (R) +29.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +21.2 | Difference 7.8 |
| Oct 26-27 | 351LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +3.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +10.5 | Difference 7.5 |
Show all
Comments