Polls analyzed | 189 |
Races called correctly | 83% |
Most recent cycle | 2020 |
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from Marist College?
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 717LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Kelly (D) +6.0 | Actual Kelly (D) +2.3 | Difference 3.7 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 772LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +5.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.2 | Difference 3.8 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 | 717LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Biden (D) +0.3 | Difference 0.3 |
Oct 25-28 | 800LV | President (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +6.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.3 | Difference 7.3 |
Oct 25-28 | 800LV | Governor (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cooper (D) +19.0 | Actual Cooper (D) +4.5 | Difference 14.5 |
Oct 25-28 | 800LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cunningham (D) +10.0 | Actual Tillis (R) +1.7 | Difference 11.7 |
Oct 25-27 | 743LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +4.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.4 | Difference 7.4 |
Oct 19-21 | 650LV | House (NY-11) General election | Live Phone | Poll Malliotakis (R) +2.0 | Actual Malliotakis (R) +6.3 | Difference 4.3 |
Feb 23-27 | 556LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Sanders (D) +15.0 | Actual Biden (D) +4.7 | Difference 19.7 |
Feb 23-27 | 568LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Sanders (D) +2.0 | Actual Biden (D) +18.7 | Difference 20.7 |
Feb 18-21 | 539LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +4.0 | Actual Biden (D) +28.9 | Difference 24.9 |
Feb 4-6 | 441LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +81.0 | Actual Trump (R) +75.4 | Difference 5.6 |
Feb 4-6 | 709LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Sanders (D) +4.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +1.3 | Difference 2.7 |
2018
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30-Nov 2 | 595LV | Governor (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gillum (D) +4.0 | Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4 | Difference 4.4 |
Oct 30-Nov 2 | 595LV | Senate (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Nelson (D) +4.0 | Actual Scott (R) +0.1 | Difference 4.1 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 600LV | Senate (MO) General election | Live Phone | Poll McCaskill (D) +3.0 | Actual Hawley (R) +5.8 | Difference 8.8 |
Oct 28-29 | 509LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +9.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +9.9 | Difference 0.9 |
Oct 24-28 | 496LV | Senate (IN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Donnelly (D) +2.0 | Actual Braun (R) +5.9 | Difference 7.9 |
Oct 24-28 | 496LV | Senate (IN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Donnelly (D) +3.0 | Actual Braun (R) +5.9 | Difference 8.9 |
Oct 23-27 | 471LV | Governor (TN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Lee (R) +17.0 | Actual Lee (R) +21.0 | Difference 4.0 |
Oct 23-27 | 506LV | Governor (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ducey (R) +13.0 | Actual Ducey (R) +14.2 | Difference 1.2 |
Oct 23-27 | 471LV | Senate (TN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Blackburn (R) +5.0 | Actual Blackburn (R) +10.8 | Difference 5.8 |
Oct 23-27 | 506LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Sinema (D) +3.0 | Actual Sinema (D) +2.3 | Difference 0.7 |
Oct 23-27 | 506LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Sinema (D) +6.0 | Actual Sinema (D) +2.3 | Difference 3.7 |
Oct 23-27 | 506LV | Governor (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ducey (R) +14.0 | Actual Ducey (R) +14.2 | Difference 0.2 |
Oct 21-23 | 738RV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +10.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +9.9 | Difference 0.1 |
Oct 14-18 | 554LV | Governor (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kemp (R) +2.0 | Actual Kemp (R) +1.4 | Difference 0.6 |
Oct 14-18 | 554LV | Governor (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kemp (R) +1.0 | Actual Kemp (R) +1.4 | Difference 0.4 |
Oct 13-18 | 511LV | Senate (MS) Special jungle primary | Live Phone | Poll Hyde-Smith (D) +43.0 | Actual Hyde-Smith (D) +40.9 | Difference 0.0 |
Oct 13-18 | 511LV | Senate (MS) Special jungle primary | Live Phone | Poll Hyde-Smith (R) +9.0 | Actual Hyde-Smith (R) +0.3 | Difference 8.7 |
Oct 13-18 | 511LV | Senate (MS) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wicker (R) +26.0 | Actual Wicker (R) +19.0 | Difference 7.0 |
Oct 13-18 | 511LV | Senate (MS) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wicker (R) +28.0 | Actual Wicker (R) +19.0 | Difference 9.0 |
2016
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-3 | 940LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (D) +1.0 | Actual Candidate (D) +0.7 | Difference 0.3 |
Nov 1-3 | 940LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +2.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.1 | Difference 0.1 |
Nov 1-3 | 940LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +1.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.1 | Difference 1.1 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 719LV | President (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +5.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.5 | Difference 1.5 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 679LV | President (TX) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +8.0 | Actual Trump (R) +9.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 707LV | President (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +1.0 | Actual Trump (R) +5.1 | Difference 4.1 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 719LV | Senate (AZ) General election | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +16.0 | Actual McCain (R) +13.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 707LV | Senate (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Isakson (R) +11.0 | Actual Isakson (R) +13.8 | Difference 2.8 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 679LV | President (TX) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +9.0 | Actual Trump (R) +9.0 | Difference 0.0 |
Oct 25-26 | 780LV | President (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Trump (R) +3.7 | Difference 9.7 |
Oct 25-26 | 779LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +1.0 | Actual Trump (R) +1.2 | Difference 2.2 |
Oct 25-26 | 779LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Trump (R) +1.2 | Difference 1.2 |
Oct 25-26 | 779LV | Senate (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Rubio (R) +8.0 | Actual Rubio (R) +7.7 | Difference 0.3 |
Oct 25-26 | 780LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Burr (R) +5.7 | Difference 5.7 |
Oct 25-26 | 780LV | Governor (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cooper (D) +6.0 | Actual Cooper (D) +0.2 | Difference 5.8 |
Oct 20-24 | 707LV | Senate (NV) General election | Live Phone | Poll Heck (R) +7.0 | Actual Cortez Masto (D) +2.4 | Difference 9.4 |
Oct 20-24 | 768LV | Governor (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Van Ostern (D) +1.0 | Actual Sununu (R) +2.3 | Difference 3.3 |
Oct 20-24 | 707LV | President (NV) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Clinton (D) +2.4 | Difference 2.4 |
Oct 20-24 | 768LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +8.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +0.4 | Difference 7.6 |
Oct 20-24 | 768LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +9.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +0.4 | Difference 8.6 |
Oct 20-24 | 768LV | Senate (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ayotte (R) +1.0 | Actual Hassan (D) +0.1 | Difference 1.1 |
May 29-31 | 557LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +2.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +7.0 | Difference 5.0 |
Apr 26-28 | 449LV | President (IN) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +4.9 | Difference 8.9 |
Apr 26-28 | 645LV | President (IN) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +15.0 | Actual Trump (R) +16.6 | Difference 1.6 |
Apr 18-20 | 571LV | President (PA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +18.0 | Actual Trump (R) +34.8 | Difference 16.8 |
Apr 18-20 | 734LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +15.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +11.9 | Difference 3.1 |
Apr 10-13 | 313LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +29.0 | Actual Trump (R) +35.1 | Difference 6.1 |
Apr 10-13 | 591LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +17.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.1 | Difference 0.9 |
Apr 6-10 | 259LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +33.0 | Actual Trump (R) +35.1 | Difference 2.1 |
Apr 6-10 | 557LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +14.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.1 | Difference 2.1 |
Apr 5-9 | 368LV | President (MD) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +17.0 | Actual Trump (R) +30.9 | Difference 13.9 |
Apr 5-9 | 775LV | President (MD) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +22.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +28.7 | Difference 6.7 |
Mar 4-10 | 564LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Kasich (R) +6.0 | Actual Kasich (R) +11.1 | Difference 5.1 |
Mar 4-10 | 453LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +20.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +13.0 | Difference 7.0 |
Mar 4-10 | 421LV | President (IL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +9.0 | Actual Trump (R) +8.6 | Difference 0.4 |
Mar 4-10 | 529LV | President (IL) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +1.9 | Difference 4.1 |
Mar 4-10 | 511LV | President (FL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +21.0 | Actual Trump (R) +18.7 | Difference 2.3 |
Mar 4-10 | 500LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +27.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +31.2 | Difference 4.2 |
Mar 1-3 | 546LV | President (MI) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +17.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +1.4 | Difference 18.4 |
Mar 1-3 | 482LV | President (MI) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +19.0 | Actual Trump (R) +11.9 | Difference 7.1 |
Feb 22-25 | 665LV | President (TN) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +18.0 | Actual Trump (R) +14.2 | Difference 3.8 |
Feb 22-25 | 405LV | President (TN) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +26.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +33.6 | Difference 7.6 |
Feb 18-23 | 537LV | President (TX) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Cruz (R) +13.0 | Actual Cruz (R) +17.0 | Difference 4.0 |
Feb 18-23 | 381LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +21.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +32.0 | Difference 11.0 |
Feb 18-23 | 461LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +34.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +43.1 | Difference 9.1 |
Feb 18-23 | 543LV | President (GA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +7.0 | Actual Trump (R) +14.4 | Difference 7.4 |
Feb 15-17 | 425LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +28.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +47.4 | Difference 19.4 |
Feb 15-17 | 722LV | President (SC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +13.0 | Actual Trump (R) +10.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Feb 2-3 | 567LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Sanders (D) +20.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +22.5 | Difference 2.5 |
Feb 2-3 | 653LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +20.0 | Actual Trump (R) +19.5 | Difference 0.5 |
Jan 24-26 | 450LV | President (IA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +7.0 | Actual Cruz (R) +3.3 | Difference 10.3 |
Jan 24-26 | 426LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +3.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +0.3 | Difference 2.7 |
2014
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Governor (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Deal (R) +5.0 | Actual Deal (R) +7.9 | Difference 2.9 |
Oct 27-30 | 630LV | Senate (LA) Jungle primary | Live Phone | Poll Landrieu (D) +8.0 | Actual Landrieu (D) +1.1 | Difference 6.9 |
Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Senate (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Perdue (R) +4.0 | Actual Perdue (R) +7.7 | Difference 3.7 |
Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Senate (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Perdue (R) +3.0 | Actual Perdue (R) +7.7 | Difference 4.7 |
Oct 27-30 | 556LV | Senate (KY) General election | Live Phone | Poll McConnell (R) +9.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +15.5 | Difference 6.5 |
Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Governor (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Deal (R) +4.0 | Actual Deal (R) +7.9 | Difference 3.9 |
Oct 26-28 | 503LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +26.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +14.0 | Difference 12.0 |
Oct 19-23 | 730LV | Senate (SD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Rounds (R) +14.0 | Actual Rounds (R) +20.9 | Difference 6.9 |
Oct 19-23 | 621LV | Governor (AR) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hutchinson (R) +3.0 | Actual Hutchinson (R) +13.9 | Difference 10.9 |
Oct 19-23 | 730LV | Governor (SD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Daugaard (R) +39.0 | Actual Daugaard (R) +45.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Oct 19-23 | 621LV | Senate (AR) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cotton (R) +2.0 | Actual Cotton (R) +17.1 | Difference 15.1 |
Oct 19-23 | 756LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Tillis (R) +1.6 | Difference 1.6 |
Oct 18-22 | 755LV | Governor (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hickenlooper (D) +5.0 | Actual Hickenlooper (D) +3.3 | Difference 1.7 |
Oct 18-22 | 757LV | Governor (KS) General election | Live Phone | Poll Davis (D) +1.0 | Actual Brownback (R) +3.7 | Difference 4.7 |
Oct 18-22 | 772LV | Governor (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Branstad (R) +23.0 | Actual Branstad (R) +21.7 | Difference 1.3 |
Oct 18-22 | 755LV | Senate (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gardner (R) +1.0 | Actual Gardner (R) +1.9 | Difference 0.9 |
Oct 18-22 | 757LV | Senate (KS) General election | Live Phone | Poll Orman (I) +1.0 | Actual Roberts (R) +10.6 | Difference 11.6 |
Oct 18-22 | 772LV | Senate (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ernst (R) +3.0 | Actual Ernst (R) +8.3 | Difference 5.3 |
2012
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-2 | 1,165LV | Senate (VA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kaine (D) +3.0 | Actual Kaine (D) +5.9 | Difference 2.9 |
Nov 1-2 | 1,165LV | President (VA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +1.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.9 | Difference 2.9 |
Oct 31-Nov 1 | 1,253RV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brown (D) +5.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Oct 31-Nov 1 | 1,253RV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 4.0 |
Oct 31-Nov 1 | 1,253RV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 1,545LV | Senate (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Nelson (D) +9.0 | Actual Nelson (D) +13.0 | Difference 4.0 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 1,545LV | President (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +0.9 | Difference 1.1 |
Oct 28-29 | 1,065LV | Senate (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Baldwin (D) +1.0 | Actual Baldwin (D) +5.5 | Difference 4.5 |
Oct 28-29 | 1,013LV | Governor (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hassan (D) +5.0 | Actual Hassan (D) +12.1 | Difference 7.1 |
Oct 28-29 | 1,065LV | President (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.8 | Difference 3.8 |
Oct 28-29 | 1,013LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +2.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.6 | Difference 3.6 |
Oct 28-29 | 1,142LV | President (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.8 | Difference 0.2 |
Oct 23-24 | 1,042LV | Senate (NV) General election | Live Phone | Poll Heller (R) +3.0 | Actual Heller (R) +1.2 | Difference 1.8 |
Oct 23-24 | 1,042LV | President (NV) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.7 | Difference 3.7 |
Oct 23-24 | 1,128LV | President (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Obama (D) +5.4 | Difference 5.4 |
Oct 18-21 | 565LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +44.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +45.8 | Difference 1.8 |
Oct 18-21 | 565LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +26.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.2 | Difference 2.2 |
Oct 18-20 | 1,013LV | Governor (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hassan (D) +5.0 | Actual Hassan (D) +12.1 | Difference 7.1 |
Oct 15-17 | 1,013LV | Senate (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Baldwin (D) +4.0 | Actual Baldwin (D) +5.5 | Difference 1.5 |
Oct 15-17 | 1,013LV | President (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.8 | Difference 0.8 |
Oct 15-17 | 1,137LV | President (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +8.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.8 | Difference 2.2 |
Mar 26-27 | 740LV | President (WI) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +7.0 | Actual Romney (R) +7.2 | Difference 0.2 |
Feb 29-Mar 2 | 529LV | President (VA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +43.0 | Actual Romney (R) +19.1 | Difference 23.9 |
Feb 29-Mar 2 | 820LV | President (OH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Santorum (R) +2.0 | Actual Romney (R) +1.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Feb 19-20 | 715LV | President (MI) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +2.0 | Actual Romney (R) +3.2 | Difference 1.2 |
Feb 19-20 | 767LV | President (AZ) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +16.0 | Actual Romney (R) +19.8 | Difference 3.8 |
Jan 27 | 316LV | President (FL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +15.0 | Actual Romney (R) +14.5 | Difference 0.5 |
Jan 25-27 | 682LV | President (FL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +15.0 | Actual Romney (R) +14.5 | Difference 0.5 |
Jan 25-26 | 366LV | President (FL) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +14.0 | Actual Romney (R) +14.5 | Difference 0.5 |
Jan 16-17 | 684LV | President (SC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +10.0 | Actual Gingrich (R) +12.6 | Difference 22.6 |
Jan 17 | 342LV | President (SC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +5.0 | Actual Gingrich (R) +12.6 | Difference 17.6 |
Jan 16 | 342LV | President (SC) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +15.0 | Actual Gingrich (R) +12.6 | Difference 27.6 |
Jan 4-5 | 711LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +20.0 | Actual Romney (R) +16.4 | Difference 3.6 |
Dec 27-28 | 433LV | President (IA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Romney (R) +8.0 | Actual Santorum (R) +0.0 | Difference 8.0 |
2010
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26-28 | 491LV | Senate (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Johnson (R) +7.0 | Actual Johnson (R) +4.8 | Difference 2.2 |
Oct 26-28 | 638LV | Senate (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Murray (D) +1.0 | Actual Murray (D) +4.7 | Difference 3.7 |
Oct 26-28 | 461LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Toomey (R) +7.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +2.0 | Difference 5.0 |
Oct 26-28 | 415LV | Senate (NY) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +15.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 12.8 |
Oct 26-28 | 415LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +24.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 10.1 |
Oct 26-28 | 615LV | Senate (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Buck (R) +4.0 | Actual Bennet (D) +1.6 | Difference 5.6 |
Oct 26-28 | 491LV | Governor (WI) General election | Live Phone | Poll Walker (R) +7.0 | Actual Walker (R) +5.8 | Difference 1.2 |
Oct 26-28 | 461LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corbett (R) +7.0 | Actual Corbett (R) +9.0 | Difference 2.0 |
Oct 26-28 | 415LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +19.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 10.3 |
Oct 26-28 | 615LV | Governor (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hickenlooper (D) +4.0 | Actual Hickenlooper (D) +14.7 | Difference 10.7 |
Oct 22-25 | 416LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Candidate (R) +6.6 | Difference 6.6 |
Oct 22-25 | 600LV | House (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Candidate (R) +6.0 | Actual Candidate (R) +6.6 | Difference 0.6 |
Oct 18-20 | 505LV | Senate (NY) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +18.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 9.8 |
Oct 18-20 | 505LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +28.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 6.1 |
Oct 18-20 | 505LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +23.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 6.3 |
Oct 14-17 | 589LV | Senate (WA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Murray (D) +1.0 | Actual Murray (D) +4.7 | Difference 3.7 |
2008
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 3 | 804LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 1.7 |
Nov 2 | 635LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 1.7 |
Oct 29 | 535LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +7.0 | Actual Obama (D) +7.3 | Difference 0.3 |
Oct 27-28 | 682LV | President (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Oct 26-27 | 671LV | President (VA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +6.3 | Difference 2.3 |
Oct 26-27 | 713LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +14.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 3.7 |
Oct 24-26 | 661LV | President (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +4.6 | Difference 1.6 |
Oct 22-23 | 655LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.6 | Difference 4.6 |
Oct 22-23 | 645LV | President (IA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +10.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.5 | Difference 0.5 |
Oct 21-22 | 527LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +36.0 | Actual Obama (D) +26.9 | Difference 9.1 |
Oct 20-21 | 628LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Lautenberg (D) +7.0 | Actual Lautenberg (D) +14.1 | Difference 7.1 |
Oct 20-21 | 628LV | President (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +17.0 | Actual Obama (D) +15.6 | Difference 1.4 |
Jan 30-31 | 181LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +37.0 | Actual McCain (R) +24.1 | Difference 12.9 |
Jan 30-31 | 409LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +16.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +17.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Jan 15-17 | 426LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +16.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +17.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Jan 5-6 | 477LV | President (NH) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll McCain (R) +4.0 | Actual McCain (R) +5.4 | Difference 1.4 |
Jan 5-6 | 636LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +8.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +2.6 | Difference 10.6 |
2006
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-3 | 619LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Menendez (D) +8.0 | Actual Menendez (D) +16.0 | Difference 8.0 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 503LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +33.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +36.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 503LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Spitzer (D) +45.0 | Actual Spitzer (D) +40.8 | Difference 4.2 |
Oct 16-18 | 475LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +36.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +36.0 | Difference 0.0 |
Oct 16-18 | 475LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Spitzer (D) +51.0 | Actual Spitzer (D) +40.8 | Difference 10.2 |
2005
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 6 | 377LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corzine (D) +6.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +10.4 | Difference 4.4 |
Nov 3-4 | 394LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corzine (D) +5.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +10.4 | Difference 5.4 |
Oct 24-26 | 449LV | Governor (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corzine (D) +10.0 | Actual Corzine (D) +10.4 | Difference 0.4 |
2004
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1 | 1,026LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 3.5 |
Oct 31 | 1,000LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 3.5 |
Oct 25-26 | 817RV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +56.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +46.9 | Difference 9.1 |
Oct 25-26 | 636LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +20.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +18.3 | Difference 1.7 |
Oct 17-19 | 772LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
Feb 28-29 | 397LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +54.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +41.1 | Difference 12.9 |
Feb 25 | 400LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +42.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +41.1 | Difference 0.9 |
Feb 17-19 | 400LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +52.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +41.1 | Difference 10.9 |
Jan 25-26 | 807LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +11.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 1.1 |
Jan 26 | 391LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +9.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 3.1 |
Jan 23-25 | 800LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +13.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +12.1 | Difference 0.9 |
2002
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 2 | 475LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Pataki (R) +21.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +15.9 | Difference 5.1 |
Oct 28-29 | 432LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Pataki (R) +21.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +15.9 | Difference 5.1 |
2000
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 2-5 | 580LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +12.3 | Difference 8.3 |
Nov 2-5 | 580LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +18.0 | Actual Gore (D) +25.0 | Difference 7.0 |
Nov 1-2 | 623LV | President (National) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Gore (D) +0.5 | Difference 5.5 |
Oct 29-30 | 516LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +12.3 | Difference 8.3 |
Oct 29-30 | 516LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +14.0 | Actual Gore (D) +25.0 | Difference 11.0 |
Mar 5-6 | 335LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +10.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.6 | Difference 2.4 |
Mar 5-6 | 461LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +26.0 | Actual Gore (D) +32.2 | Difference 6.2 |
Feb 29-Mar 1 | 191LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +1.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.6 | Difference 6.6 |
Feb 29-Mar 1 | 244LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +32.0 | Actual Gore (D) +32.2 | Difference 0.2 |
Feb 20-22 | 201LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +3.0 | Actual Bush (R) +7.6 | Difference 4.6 |
Feb 20-22 | 279LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Gore (D) +26.0 | Actual Gore (D) +32.2 | Difference 6.2 |
1998
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26-27 | 351LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Pataki (R) +29.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +21.2 | Difference 7.8 |
Oct 26-27 | 351LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +3.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +10.5 | Difference 7.5 |
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