UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

Minneapolis Star Tribune

Polls analyzed	14
Races called correctly	57%
Most recent cycle	2006
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Minneapolis Star Tribune?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2006

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 5-6	1,027LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Klobuchar +21.0	Actual Klobuchar +20.1	Difference 0.9
Nov 5-6	1,027LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hatch +3.0	Actual Pawlenty +1.0	Difference 4.0
Oct 31-Nov 3	1,027LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Klobuchar +20.0	Actual Klobuchar +20.1	Difference 0.1
Oct 31-Nov 3	1,027LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hatch +5.0	Actual Pawlenty +1.0	Difference 6.0

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 1	743LV	President (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +4.0	Actual Kerry +3.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 26-29	996LV	President (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +8.0	Actual Kerry +3.5	Difference 4.5

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-Nov 1	929LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pawlenty +3.0	Actual Pawlenty +7.9	Difference 4.9
Oct 30-Nov 1	929LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Mondale +5.0	Actual Coleman +2.2	Difference 7.2
Oct 28	929LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Mondale +8.0	Actual Coleman +2.2	Difference 10.2
Oct 28	929LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pawlenty +4.0	Actual Pawlenty +7.9	Difference 3.9

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 3	900LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Dayton +9.0	Actual Dayton +5.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 31-Nov 3	1,015LV	President (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +10.0	Actual Gore +2.4	Difference 7.6

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-30	700LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Coleman +3.0	Actual Ventura +2.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 17	1,007LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Coleman +13.0	Actual Ventura +2.7	Difference 15.7

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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