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PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

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Muhlenberg College

B+

Polls analyzed	32
Races called correctly	86%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	Yes

How accurate are the polls from Muhlenberg College?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-28	419LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +5.0	Actual Biden (D) +1.2	Difference 3.8
Oct 13-20	416LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +7.0	Actual Biden (D) +1.2	Difference 5.8

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-Nov 1	421LV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Wolf (D) +21.0	Actual Wolf (D) +17.1	Difference 3.9
Oct 28-Nov 1	421LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Casey (D) +14.0	Actual Casey (D) +13.1	Difference 0.9
Oct 14-18	411LV	House (PA-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Wild (D) +7.0	Actual Wild (D) +10.0	Difference 3.0

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-Nov 4	405LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +4.0	Actual Trump (R) +0.7	Difference 4.7
Oct 30-Nov 4	405LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +6.0	Actual Trump (R) +0.7	Difference 6.7
Oct 30-Nov 4	405LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Toomey (R) +1.0	Actual Toomey (R) +1.4	Difference 0.4
Oct 20-26	420LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +5.0	Actual Trump (R) +0.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 20-26	420LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +6.0	Actual Trump (R) +0.7	Difference 6.7
Oct 20-26	420LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Toomey (R) +1.4	Difference 1.4
Apr 7-12	422LV	President (PA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +18.0	Actual Trump (R) +34.8	Difference 16.8

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-29	409LV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Wolf (D) +12.0	Actual Wolf (D) +9.9	Difference 2.1

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-3	430LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Casey (D) +6.0	Actual Casey (D) +9.1	Difference 3.1
Nov 1-3	430LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +3.0	Actual Obama (D) +5.4	Difference 2.4
Oct 17-21	444LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Casey (D) +8.0	Actual Casey (D) +9.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 17-21	444LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +5.0	Actual Obama (D) +5.4	Difference 0.4

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-31	474LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Toomey (R) +4.0	Actual Toomey (R) +2.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 28-31	474LV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corbett (R) +7.0	Actual Corbett (R) +9.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 24-27	460LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Toomey (R) +8.0	Actual Toomey (R) +2.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 24-27	460LV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corbett (R) +15.0	Actual Corbett (R) +9.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 20-23	445LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Toomey (R) +3.0	Actual Toomey (R) +2.0	Difference 1.0
Oct 20-23	445LV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corbett (R) +9.0	Actual Corbett (R) +9.0	Difference 0.0
Oct 16-19	403LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Sestak (D) +3.0	Actual Toomey (R) +2.0	Difference 5.0
Oct 16-19	403LV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corbett (R) +7.0	Actual Corbett (R) +9.0	Difference 2.0

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-Nov 2	617LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +6.0	Actual Obama (D) +10.3	Difference 4.3
Oct 24-28	610LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +11.0	Actual Obama (D) +10.3	Difference 0.7
Oct 19-23	608LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +12.0	Actual Obama (D) +10.3	Difference 1.7
Oct 14-18	599LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +12.0	Actual Obama (D) +10.3	Difference 1.7

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-Nov 2	507LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Casey (D) +8.0	Actual Casey (D) +17.4	Difference 9.4
Oct 29-Nov 2	507LV	Governor (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rendell (D) +25.0	Actual Rendell (D) +20.7	Difference 4.3
Oct 25-27	421LV	House (PA-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fitzpatrick (R) +5.0	Actual Murphy (D) +0.6	Difference 5.6

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 17-22	787RV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Specter (R) +22.0	Actual Specter (R) +10.6	Difference 11.4
Oct 17-22	787RV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry (D) +2.0	Actual Kerry (D) +2.5	Difference 0.5

Show all

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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