Polls analyzed | 32 |
Races called correctly | 86% |
Most recent cycle | 2020 |
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from Muhlenberg College?
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23-28 | 419LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +5.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.2 | Difference 3.8 |
Oct 13-20 | 416LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Biden (D) +7.0 | Actual Biden (D) +1.2 | Difference 5.8 |
2018
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 28-Nov 1 | 421LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wolf (D) +21.0 | Actual Wolf (D) +17.1 | Difference 3.9 |
Oct 28-Nov 1 | 421LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Casey (D) +14.0 | Actual Casey (D) +13.1 | Difference 0.9 |
Oct 14-18 | 411LV | House (PA-7) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wild (D) +7.0 | Actual Wild (D) +10.0 | Difference 3.0 |
2016
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30-Nov 4 | 405LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +4.0 | Actual Trump (R) +0.7 | Difference 4.7 |
Oct 30-Nov 4 | 405LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Trump (R) +0.7 | Difference 6.7 |
Oct 30-Nov 4 | 405LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Toomey (R) +1.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +1.4 | Difference 0.4 |
Oct 20-26 | 420LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +5.0 | Actual Trump (R) +0.7 | Difference 5.7 |
Oct 20-26 | 420LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +6.0 | Actual Trump (R) +0.7 | Difference 6.7 |
Oct 20-26 | 420LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Toomey (R) +1.4 | Difference 1.4 |
Apr 7-12 | 422LV | President (PA) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +18.0 | Actual Trump (R) +34.8 | Difference 16.8 |
2014
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27-29 | 409LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wolf (D) +12.0 | Actual Wolf (D) +9.9 | Difference 2.1 |
2012
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-3 | 430LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Casey (D) +6.0 | Actual Casey (D) +9.1 | Difference 3.1 |
Nov 1-3 | 430LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +3.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.4 | Difference 2.4 |
Oct 17-21 | 444LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Casey (D) +8.0 | Actual Casey (D) +9.1 | Difference 1.1 |
Oct 17-21 | 444LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Obama (D) +5.4 | Difference 0.4 |
2010
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 28-31 | 474LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Toomey (R) +4.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +2.0 | Difference 2.0 |
Oct 28-31 | 474LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corbett (R) +7.0 | Actual Corbett (R) +9.0 | Difference 2.0 |
Oct 24-27 | 460LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Toomey (R) +8.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +2.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Oct 24-27 | 460LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corbett (R) +15.0 | Actual Corbett (R) +9.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Oct 20-23 | 445LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Toomey (R) +3.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +2.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Oct 20-23 | 445LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corbett (R) +9.0 | Actual Corbett (R) +9.0 | Difference 0.0 |
Oct 16-19 | 403LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Sestak (D) +3.0 | Actual Toomey (R) +2.0 | Difference 5.0 |
Oct 16-19 | 403LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Corbett (R) +7.0 | Actual Corbett (R) +9.0 | Difference 2.0 |
2008
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 617LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +6.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 4.3 |
Oct 24-28 | 610LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +11.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 0.7 |
Oct 19-23 | 608LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +12.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 1.7 |
Oct 14-18 | 599LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +12.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.3 | Difference 1.7 |
2006
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 507LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Casey (D) +8.0 | Actual Casey (D) +17.4 | Difference 9.4 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 | 507LV | Governor (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Rendell (D) +25.0 | Actual Rendell (D) +20.7 | Difference 4.3 |
Oct 25-27 | 421LV | House (PA-8) General election | Live Phone | Poll Fitzpatrick (R) +5.0 | Actual Murphy (D) +0.6 | Difference 5.6 |
2004
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 17-22 | 787RV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Specter (R) +22.0 | Actual Specter (R) +10.6 | Difference 11.4 |
Oct 17-22 | 787RV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +2.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +2.5 | Difference 0.5 |
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