UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

A/B

National Research

Also known as Opinion Insight

Polls analyzed	15
Races called correctly	77%
Most recent cycle	2021
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names	Opinion Insight

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from National Research?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Jan 2-3	500LV	Senate (GA) Runoff	Live Phone	Poll Ossoff +1.0	Actual Ossoff +1.2	Difference 0.2
Jan 2-3	500LV	Senate (GA) Special runoff	Live Phone	Poll Warnock +1.0	Actual Warnock +2.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 12-15	800LV	Senate (GA) Special jungle primary	Live Phone	Poll Warnock +12.0	Actual Warnock +7.0	Difference 5.0
Oct 12-15	800LV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Perdue +1.8	Difference 1.8
Oct 12-15	800LV	President (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +4.0	Actual Biden +0.2	Difference 3.8

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Mar 3-7	500LV	President (NC) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +6.0	Actual Trump +3.5	Difference 2.5
Mar 3-7	500LV	President (NC) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +29.0	Actual Clinton +14.1	Difference 14.9
Feb 17-18	500LV	President (SC) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump +14.0	Actual Trump +10.0	Difference 4.0

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-30	600LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Tillis +1.6	Difference 1.6
Oct 29-30	600LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hagan +2.0	Actual Tillis +1.6	Difference 3.6
Oct 15-18	600LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Tillis +1.0	Actual Tillis +1.6	Difference 0.6

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-23	400LV	House (CT-5) General election	Live Phone	Poll Roraback +6.0	Actual Esty +2.6	Difference 8.6
Oct 20-21	600LV	President (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Romney +1.0	Actual Romney +2.0	Difference 1.0

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-21	300LV	House (MI-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Walberg +13.0	Actual Walberg +4.8	Difference 8.2
Oct 17-18	300LV	House (CT-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Debicella +4.0	Actual Himes +6.1	Difference 10.1

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-22	300LV	House (NJ-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lance +9.0	Actual Lance +8.0	Difference 1.0

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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