UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

A/B

New England College Polling Center

Polls analyzed	19
Races called correctly	74%
Most recent cycle	2014
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from New England College Polling Center?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2014

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 1	778LV	House (NH-1) General election	IVR	Poll Guinta +9.0	Actual Guinta +3.6	Difference 5.4
Oct 31-Nov 1	1,526LV	Governor (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Hassan +7.0	Actual Hassan +5.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 31-Nov 1	1,526LV	Senate (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Brown +0.5	Actual Shaheen +3.3	Difference 3.8
Oct 31-Nov 1	748LV	House (NH-2) General election	IVR	Poll Kuster +11.0	Actual Kuster +10.0	Difference 1.0
Oct 24	1,132LV	Senate (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Brown +1.5	Actual Shaheen +3.3	Difference 4.8
Oct 24	576LV	House (NH-2) General election	IVR	Poll Kuster +7.0	Actual Kuster +10.0	Difference 3.0
Oct 24	556LV	House (NH-1) General election	IVR	Poll Guinta +6.0	Actual Guinta +3.6	Difference 2.4
Oct 24	1,132LV	Governor (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Hassan +5.0	Difference 5.0
Oct 16	460LV	House (NH-2) General election	IVR	Poll Kuster +6.0	Actual Kuster +10.0	Difference 4.0
Oct 16	921LV	Governor (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Hassan +8.2	Actual Hassan +5.0	Difference 3.2
Oct 16	921LV	Senate (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Brown +0.4	Actual Shaheen +3.3	Difference 3.7
Oct 16	461LV	House (NH-1) General election	IVR	Poll Guinta +1.0	Actual Guinta +3.6	Difference 2.6

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 3-4	666LV	Governor (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Hassan +2.0	Actual Hassan +12.1	Difference 10.1
Nov 3-4	687LV	President (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +4.0	Actual Obama +5.6	Difference 1.6
Oct 29-31	511LV	House (NH-2) General election	IVR	Poll Kuster +6.0	Actual Kuster +4.8	Difference 1.2
Oct 29-31	511LV	House (NH-1) General election	IVR	Poll Guinta +7.0	Actual Shea-Porter +3.8	Difference 10.8
Oct 29-31	1,017LV	President (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +5.1	Actual Obama +5.6	Difference 0.5
Oct 23-25	571LV	President (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Obama +5.6	Difference 2.6
Oct 23-25	571LV	Governor (NH) General election	IVR	Poll Even	Actual Hassan +12.1	Difference 12.1

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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