UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

North Star Opinion Research

Also known as Ayres, McHenry & Associates

Polls analyzed	11
Races called correctly	82%
Most recent cycle	2016
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	No
Other names	Ayres, McHenry & Associates

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from North Star Opinion Research?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2016

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-24	400RV	President (NE-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +4.0	Actual Trump +2.3	Difference 1.7
Oct 22-24	400RV	House (NE-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bacon +4.0	Actual Bacon +1.2	Difference 2.8

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-25	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Democrats +1.1	Difference 1.1
Oct 23-25	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Romney +1.0	Actual Obama +3.9	Difference 4.9

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 12-15	600LV	Senate (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Alexander +37.0	Actual Alexander +33.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 12-15	600LV	President (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll McCain +15.0	Actual McCain +15.1	Difference 0.1

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 14-17	600LV	Senate (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Alexander +16.0	Actual Alexander +9.9	Difference 6.1
Oct 14-17	900LV	Governor (AL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Riley +1.0	Actual Riley +0.2	Difference 0.8

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Jan 9-10	300LV	President (IA) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Bush +22.0	Actual Bush +10.5	Difference 11.5
Jan 9-10	300LV	President (IA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Gore +15.0	Actual Gore +26.4	Difference 11.4

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-29	600LV	Senate (SC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hollings +1.0	Actual Hollings +7.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 26-29	600LV	Senate (SC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Inglis +1.0	Actual Hollings +7.0	Difference 8.0

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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