UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

A/B

Opinion Dynamics

Polls analyzed	34
Races called correctly	72%
Most recent cycle	2010
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Opinion Dynamics?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2010

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-28	600LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +13.0	Actual Republicans +6.8	Difference 6.2
Oct 11-13	600LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +9.0	Actual Republicans +6.8	Difference 2.2

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-2	917LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +7.0	Actual Obama +7.3	Difference 0.3
Oct 28-29	924LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Obama +7.3	Difference 4.3
Oct 20-21	936LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama +9.0	Actual Obama +7.3	Difference 1.7
Feb 26-28	600LV	President (TX) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +3.0	Actual Clinton +3.5	Difference 6.5
Feb 26-28	600LV	President (OH) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton +8.0	Actual Clinton +8.7	Difference 0.7
Jan 16-17	500LV	President (SC) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +7.0	Actual McCain +3.3	Difference 3.7
Jan 9	500LV	President (SC) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +7.0	Actual McCain +3.3	Difference 3.7
Jan 4-6	500LV	President (NH) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll McCain +7.0	Actual McCain +5.4	Difference 1.6
Jan 4-6	500LV	President (NH) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Obama +4.0	Actual Clinton +2.6	Difference 6.6

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 4-5	900LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +13.0	Actual Democrats +8.2	Difference 4.8
Oct 24-25	900LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +11.0	Actual Democrats +8.2	Difference 2.8

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-31	700LV	Senate (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Feingold +14.0	Actual Feingold +11.2	Difference 2.8
Oct 30-31	700LV	Senate (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Voinovich +30.0	Actual Voinovich +27.7	Difference 2.3
Oct 30-31	700LV	Senate (IA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Grassley +47.0	Actual Grassley +42.3	Difference 4.7
Oct 30-31	700LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Castor +6.0	Actual Martinez +1.1	Difference 7.1
Oct 30-31	700LV	President (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +3.0	Actual Bush +2.1	Difference 0.9
Oct 30-31	700LV	President (IA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +4.0	Actual Bush +0.7	Difference 3.3
Oct 30-31	700LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +5.0	Actual Bush +5.0	Difference 10.0
Oct 30-31	1,200LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +2.0	Actual Bush +2.5	Difference 4.5
Oct 30-31	700LV	President (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +3.0	Actual Kerry +0.4	Difference 3.4
Oct 28-29	1,200LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +2.0	Actual Bush +2.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 17-18	800LV	Senate (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Voinovich +30.0	Actual Voinovich +27.7	Difference 2.3
Oct 17-18	800LV	President (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +2.0	Actual Bush +2.1	Difference 0.1
Oct 17-18	800LV	President (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +5.0	Actual Bush +2.1	Difference 2.9
Oct 17-18	1,200LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +7.0	Actual Bush +2.5	Difference 4.5

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-23	900LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +1.0	Actual Republicans +5.0	Difference 4.0

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-2	1,000LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Gore +0.5	Difference 0.5
Nov 1-2	1,000LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Democrats +3.0	Actual Republicans +0.4	Difference 3.4
Oct 25-26	600LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +3.0	Actual Gore +4.2	Difference 1.2
Oct 25-26	600LV	President (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +3.0	Actual Gore +5.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 25-26	600LV	President (IL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +3.0	Actual Gore +12.0	Difference 15.0
Oct 18-19	900LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush +3.0	Actual Gore +0.5	Difference 3.5

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-29	673LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Republicans +10.0	Actual Republicans +0.9	Difference 9.1

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

Send us feedback.