UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

Øptimus Analytics

Polls analyzed	17
Races called correctly	82%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Øptimus Analytics?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 2	505LV	House (VA-7) General election	Live Phone	Poll Spanberger +10.2	Actual Spanberger +1.8	Difference 8.4
Oct 31-Nov 2	802LV	Senate (SC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Graham +9.8	Actual Graham +10.3	Difference 0.5
Oct 31-Nov 2	817LV	President (SC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump +12.4	Actual Trump +11.7	Difference 0.7
Mar 7-9	402LV	President (MO) Democratic primary	Live Phone/Online	Poll Biden +38.2	Actual Biden +25.6	Difference 12.6

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 1	800LV	House (OH-7) General election	IVR	Poll Gibbs +18.3	Actual Gibbs +17.5	Difference 0.8
Oct 31-Nov 1	756LV	House (AZ-1) General election	IVR	Poll O'Halleran +2.4	Actual O'Halleran +7.7	Difference 5.3

2017

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-2	1,600LV	Governor (VA) General election	IVR	Poll Gillespie +3.0	Actual Northam +8.9	Difference 11.9

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Apr 11-14	14,201LV	President (NY) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +25.3	Actual Trump +35.1	Difference 9.8
Mar 22-24	6,182LV	President (WI) Republican primary	IVR	Poll Trump +3.7	Actual Cruz +13.2	Difference 16.9

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-Nov 2	2,559LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Scott +1.5	Actual Scott +1.1	Difference 0.4
Oct 27-Nov 2	2,421LV	Senate (IA) General election	IVR	Poll Ernst +2.9	Actual Ernst +8.3	Difference 5.4
Oct 20-26	4,893LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Scott +2.5	Actual Scott +1.1	Difference 1.4
Oct 20-26	2,755LV	Senate (IA) General election	IVR	Poll Ernst +3.1	Actual Ernst +8.3	Difference 5.2
Oct 22-25	1,807LV	House (MA-6) General election	IVR	Poll Tisei +1.8	Actual Moulton +13.8	Difference 15.6
Oct 16-19	2,994LV	House (MA-6) General election	IVR	Poll Moulton +1.3	Actual Moulton +13.8	Difference 12.5
Oct 13-19	4,701LV	Governor (FL) General election	IVR	Poll Scott +0.9	Actual Scott +1.1	Difference 0.2
Oct 13-19	2,455LV	Senate (IA) General election	IVR	Poll Ernst +0.6	Actual Ernst +8.3	Difference 7.7

Show all

How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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