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PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

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Public Opinion Strategies

A-

Polls analyzed	77
Races called correctly	68%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	Yes

How accurate are the polls from Public Opinion Strategies?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-18	400LV	House (NY-24) General election	Live Phone	Poll Katko (R) +8.0	Actual Katko (R) +10.2	Difference 2.2
Oct 11-14	400LV	House (CA-39) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kim (R) +1.0	Actual Kim (R) +1.2	Difference 0.2

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 14-17	400LV	House (CA-45) General election	Live Phone	Poll Walters (R) +4.0	Actual Porter (D) +4.1	Difference 8.1

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-3	310LV	House (IN-9) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hollingsworth (R) +2.0	Actual Hollingsworth (R) +13.7	Difference 11.7
Nov 1-3	600LV	President (IN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +11.0	Actual Trump (R) +19.2	Difference 8.2
Nov 1-3	600LV	Senate (IN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Young (R) +5.0	Actual Young (R) +9.7	Difference 4.7
Nov 1-3	600LV	Governor (IN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Holcomb (R) +6.0	Difference 6.0
Apr 18-21	507LV	President (IN) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +6.0	Actual Trump (R) +16.6	Difference 10.6
Apr 18-21	479LV	President (IN) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +3.0	Actual Sanders (D) +4.9	Difference 7.9

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-27	600LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Tillis (R) +1.6	Difference 1.6
Oct 25-27	600LV	Senate (KY) General election	Live Phone	Poll McConnell (R) +7.0	Actual McConnell (R) +15.5	Difference 8.5
Oct 23-25	400LV	House (NY-18) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Maloney (D) +1.9	Difference 1.9
Oct 18-20	500LV	Senate (SD) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rounds (R) +24.0	Actual Rounds (R) +20.9	Difference 3.1
Oct 14-15	400LV	House (NY-19) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gibson (R) +26.0	Actual Gibson (R) +29.0	Difference 3.0

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30-31	500LV	Senate (NM) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Heinrich (D) +5.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 30-31	500LV	President (NM) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +8.0	Actual Obama (D) +10.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 24-25	400LV	House (NY-21) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (D) +2.0	Actual Owens (D) +2.0	Difference 0.0
Oct 24-25	400LV	House (NY-19) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gibson (R) +10.0	Actual Gibson (R) +5.7	Difference 4.3
Oct 23-25	600LV	Senate (NE) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fischer (R) +16.0	Actual Fischer (R) +15.5	Difference 0.5
Oct 22-23	400LV	House (TN-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll DesJarlais (R) +13.0	Actual DesJarlais (R) +11.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 21-22	500LV	Senate (NM) General election	Live Phone	Poll Wilson (R) +1.0	Actual Heinrich (D) +5.7	Difference 6.7
Oct 21-22	500LV	President (NM) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +5.0	Actual Obama (D) +10.1	Difference 5.1
Oct 18-21	400LV	House (MI-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Amash (R) +14.0	Actual Amash (R) +8.4	Difference 5.6
Oct 16-17	600LV	Senate (OH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Mandel (R) +1.0	Actual Brown (D) +6.0	Difference 7.0

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 30	400LV	House (VA-5) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hurt (R) +3.0	Actual Hurt (R) +3.8	Difference 0.8
Oct 24-25	400LV	House (ND-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Berg (R) +9.0	Actual Berg (R) +9.8	Difference 0.8
Oct 24-25	400LV	House (NM-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Barela (R) +2.0	Actual Heinrich (D) +3.6	Difference 5.6
Oct 24-25	500LV	Governor (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Dayton (D) +0.4	Difference 0.4
Oct 20-24	800LV	Governor (NM) General election	Live Phone	Poll Martinez (R) +8.0	Actual Martinez (R) +6.7	Difference 1.3
Oct 20-21	300LV	House (RI-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Cicilline (D) +6.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 19-20	400LV	House (PA-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fitzpatrick (R) +10.0	Actual Fitzpatrick (R) +7.0	Difference 3.0
Oct 19-20	400LV	House (MI-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Amash (R) +19.0	Actual Amash (R) +22.2	Difference 3.2
Oct 17-18	400LV	House (VA-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rigell (R) +5.0	Actual Rigell (R) +10.7	Difference 5.7
Oct 17-18	400LV	House (NY-20) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gibson (R) +2.0	Actual Gibson (R) +9.7	Difference 7.7
Oct 13-14	300LV	House (CA-47) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Sanchez (D) +13.7	Difference 13.7
Oct 12-14	300LV	House (TN-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll DesJarlais (R) +5.0	Actual DesJarlais (R) +18.5	Difference 13.5
Oct 11-13	800LV	Governor (MA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Baker (R) +7.0	Actual Patrick (D) +6.4	Difference 13.4
May 4-5	400LV	House (PA-12) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Burns (R) +2.0	Actual Critz (D) +7.7	Difference 9.7

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 17-18	400LV	House (LA-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fleming (R) +1.0	Actual Fleming (R) +0.4	Difference 0.6
Oct 30	600LV	Senate (GA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Chambliss (R) +9.0	Actual Chambliss (R) +2.9	Difference 6.1
Oct 23-26	500LV	Senate (OK) General election	Live Phone	Poll Inhofe (R) +16.0	Actual Inhofe (R) +17.5	Difference 1.5
Oct 22-23	400LV	House (PA-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll English (R) +2.0	Actual Dahlkemper (D) +2.5	Difference 4.5
Oct 21-23	500LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Udall (D) +13.0	Actual Udall (D) +10.3	Difference 2.7
Oct 21-23	500LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +12.0	Actual Obama (D) +9.0	Difference 3.0
Oct 20-22	525LV	Senate (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shaheen (D) +3.0	Actual Shaheen (D) +6.3	Difference 3.3
Oct 20-22	525LV	President (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +4.0	Actual Obama (D) +9.6	Difference 5.6
Oct 17-19	500LV	Senate (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shaheen (D) +6.0	Actual Shaheen (D) +6.3	Difference 0.3
Oct 17-19	500LV	President (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +9.0	Actual Obama (D) +9.6	Difference 0.6

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 2	450LV	House (NM-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Wilson (R) +2.0	Actual Wilson (R) +0.4	Difference 1.6
Oct 31-Nov 2	450LV	House (FL-13) General election	Live Phone	Poll Buchanan (R) +3.0	Actual Buchanan (R) +0.2	Difference 2.8
Oct 31-Nov 1	600LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Menendez (D) +2.0	Actual Menendez (D) +16.0	Difference 14.0
Oct 30	500LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ritter (D) +22.0	Actual Ritter (D) +16.8	Difference 5.2
Oct 25-26	600LV	Governor (MD) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ehrlich (R) +1.0	Actual O'Malley (D) +6.5	Difference 7.5
Oct 23-24	400LV	House (PA-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hart (R) +12.0	Actual Altmire (D) +3.9	Difference 15.9
Oct 22-24	450LV	House (NM-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Madrid (D) +3.0	Actual Wilson (R) +0.4	Difference 3.4
Oct 22-23	400LV	House (CT-2) General election	Live Phone	Poll Simmons (R) +7.0	Actual Courtney (D) +0.0	Difference 7.0
Oct 18-22	750LV	Governor (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Crist (R) +14.0	Actual Crist (R) +7.1	Difference 6.9
Oct 17-19	350LV	House (NE-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Fortenberry (R) +22.0	Actual Fortenberry (R) +16.7	Difference 5.3
Oct 16-17	400LV	House (NC-8) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hayes (R) +16.0	Actual Hayes (R) +0.3	Difference 15.7

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-27	500LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Salazar (D) +6.0	Actual Salazar (D) +4.8	Difference 1.2
Oct 25-27	500LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +9.0	Actual Bush (R) +4.7	Difference 4.3
Oct 13-16	500LV	President (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +5.0	Actual Bush (R) +4.7	Difference 0.3
Oct 13-15	500LV	Senate (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Coors (R) +5.0	Actual Salazar (D) +4.8	Difference 9.8
Oct 12-14	600LV	Senate (KY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bunning (R) +11.0	Actual Bunning (R) +1.3	Difference 9.7

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 3	600LV	Senate (SD) General election	Live Phone	Poll Thune (R) +0.1	Actual Johnson (D) +0.2	Difference 0.3
Nov 3	600LV	Senate (NH) General election	Live Phone	Poll Shaheen (D) +1.8	Actual Sununu (R) +4.4	Difference 6.2
Nov 3	600LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Mondale (D) +0.2	Actual Coleman (R) +2.2	Difference 2.4
Oct 27-29	500LV	Senate (SD) General election	Live Phone	Poll Thune (R) +3.0	Actual Johnson (D) +0.2	Difference 3.2
Oct 27	300LV	House (PA-13) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hoeffel (D) +8.0	Actual Hoeffel (D) +3.6	Difference 4.4
Oct 26-27	600LV	Senate (MN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Mondale (D) +2.0	Actual Coleman (R) +2.2	Difference 4.2
Oct 23-27	500LV	Senate (SD) General election	Live Phone	Poll Thune (R) +3.0	Actual Johnson (D) +0.2	Difference 3.2
Oct 22-23	361LV	House (AZ-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Renzi (R) +12.0	Actual Renzi (R) +3.6	Difference 8.4
Oct 16-17	400LV	House (NJ-5) General election	Live Phone	Poll Garrett (R) +15.0	Actual Garrett (R) +21.2	Difference 6.2

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-23	500LV	Senate (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Santorum (R) +22.0	Actual Santorum (R) +6.9	Difference 15.1
Oct 21-23	800LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +2.0	Actual Gore (D) +4.2	Difference 6.2

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21	300LV	House (IN-9) General election	Live Phone	Poll Leising (R) +10.0	Actual Hill (D) +2.8	Difference 12.8
Oct 16	500LV	Governor (CO) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (R) +4.0	Actual Owens (R) +0.6	Difference 3.4

Show all

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

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Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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