Polls analyzed | 77 |
Races called correctly | 68% |
Most recent cycle | 2020 |
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from Public Opinion Strategies?
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 15-18 | 400LV | House (NY-24) General election | Live Phone | Poll Katko (R) +8.0 | Actual Katko (R) +10.2 | Difference 2.2 |
Oct 11-14 | 400LV | House (CA-39) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kim (R) +1.0 | Actual Kim (R) +1.2 | Difference 0.2 |
2018
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 14-17 | 400LV | House (CA-45) General election | Live Phone | Poll Walters (R) +4.0 | Actual Porter (D) +4.1 | Difference 8.1 |
2016
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-3 | 310LV | House (IN-9) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hollingsworth (R) +2.0 | Actual Hollingsworth (R) +13.7 | Difference 11.7 |
Nov 1-3 | 600LV | President (IN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +11.0 | Actual Trump (R) +19.2 | Difference 8.2 |
Nov 1-3 | 600LV | Senate (IN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Young (R) +5.0 | Actual Young (R) +9.7 | Difference 4.7 |
Nov 1-3 | 600LV | Governor (IN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Holcomb (R) +6.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Apr 18-21 | 507LV | President (IN) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +6.0 | Actual Trump (R) +16.6 | Difference 10.6 |
Apr 18-21 | 479LV | President (IN) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +3.0 | Actual Sanders (D) +4.9 | Difference 7.9 |
2014
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26-27 | 600LV | Senate (NC) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Tillis (R) +1.6 | Difference 1.6 |
Oct 25-27 | 600LV | Senate (KY) General election | Live Phone | Poll McConnell (R) +7.0 | Actual McConnell (R) +15.5 | Difference 8.5 |
Oct 23-25 | 400LV | House (NY-18) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Maloney (D) +1.9 | Difference 1.9 |
Oct 18-20 | 500LV | Senate (SD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Rounds (R) +24.0 | Actual Rounds (R) +20.9 | Difference 3.1 |
Oct 14-15 | 400LV | House (NY-19) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gibson (R) +26.0 | Actual Gibson (R) +29.0 | Difference 3.0 |
2012
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30-31 | 500LV | Senate (NM) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Heinrich (D) +5.7 | Difference 5.7 |
Oct 30-31 | 500LV | President (NM) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +8.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.1 | Difference 2.1 |
Oct 24-25 | 400LV | House (NY-21) General election | Live Phone | Poll Owens (D) +2.0 | Actual Owens (D) +2.0 | Difference 0.0 |
Oct 24-25 | 400LV | House (NY-19) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gibson (R) +10.0 | Actual Gibson (R) +5.7 | Difference 4.3 |
Oct 23-25 | 600LV | Senate (NE) General election | Live Phone | Poll Fischer (R) +16.0 | Actual Fischer (R) +15.5 | Difference 0.5 |
Oct 22-23 | 400LV | House (TN-4) General election | Live Phone | Poll DesJarlais (R) +13.0 | Actual DesJarlais (R) +11.5 | Difference 1.5 |
Oct 21-22 | 500LV | Senate (NM) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wilson (R) +1.0 | Actual Heinrich (D) +5.7 | Difference 6.7 |
Oct 21-22 | 500LV | President (NM) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +5.0 | Actual Obama (D) +10.1 | Difference 5.1 |
Oct 18-21 | 400LV | House (MI-3) General election | Live Phone | Poll Amash (R) +14.0 | Actual Amash (R) +8.4 | Difference 5.6 |
Oct 16-17 | 600LV | Senate (OH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Mandel (R) +1.0 | Actual Brown (D) +6.0 | Difference 7.0 |
2010
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30 | 400LV | House (VA-5) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hurt (R) +3.0 | Actual Hurt (R) +3.8 | Difference 0.8 |
Oct 24-25 | 400LV | House (ND-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Berg (R) +9.0 | Actual Berg (R) +9.8 | Difference 0.8 |
Oct 24-25 | 400LV | House (NM-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Barela (R) +2.0 | Actual Heinrich (D) +3.6 | Difference 5.6 |
Oct 24-25 | 500LV | Governor (MN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Dayton (D) +0.4 | Difference 0.4 |
Oct 20-24 | 800LV | Governor (NM) General election | Live Phone | Poll Martinez (R) +8.0 | Actual Martinez (R) +6.7 | Difference 1.3 |
Oct 20-21 | 300LV | House (RI-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Cicilline (D) +6.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Oct 19-20 | 400LV | House (PA-8) General election | Live Phone | Poll Fitzpatrick (R) +10.0 | Actual Fitzpatrick (R) +7.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Oct 19-20 | 400LV | House (MI-3) General election | Live Phone | Poll Amash (R) +19.0 | Actual Amash (R) +22.2 | Difference 3.2 |
Oct 17-18 | 400LV | House (VA-2) General election | Live Phone | Poll Rigell (R) +5.0 | Actual Rigell (R) +10.7 | Difference 5.7 |
Oct 17-18 | 400LV | House (NY-20) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gibson (R) +2.0 | Actual Gibson (R) +9.7 | Difference 7.7 |
Oct 13-14 | 300LV | House (CA-47) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Sanchez (D) +13.7 | Difference 13.7 |
Oct 12-14 | 300LV | House (TN-4) General election | Live Phone | Poll DesJarlais (R) +5.0 | Actual DesJarlais (R) +18.5 | Difference 13.5 |
Oct 11-13 | 800LV | Governor (MA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Baker (R) +7.0 | Actual Patrick (D) +6.4 | Difference 13.4 |
May 4-5 | 400LV | House (PA-12) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Burns (R) +2.0 | Actual Critz (D) +7.7 | Difference 9.7 |
2008
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 17-18 | 400LV | House (LA-4) General election | Live Phone | Poll Fleming (R) +1.0 | Actual Fleming (R) +0.4 | Difference 0.6 |
Oct 30 | 600LV | Senate (GA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Chambliss (R) +9.0 | Actual Chambliss (R) +2.9 | Difference 6.1 |
Oct 23-26 | 500LV | Senate (OK) General election | Live Phone | Poll Inhofe (R) +16.0 | Actual Inhofe (R) +17.5 | Difference 1.5 |
Oct 22-23 | 400LV | House (PA-3) General election | Live Phone | Poll English (R) +2.0 | Actual Dahlkemper (D) +2.5 | Difference 4.5 |
Oct 21-23 | 500LV | Senate (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Udall (D) +13.0 | Actual Udall (D) +10.3 | Difference 2.7 |
Oct 21-23 | 500LV | President (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +12.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.0 | Difference 3.0 |
Oct 20-22 | 525LV | Senate (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Shaheen (D) +3.0 | Actual Shaheen (D) +6.3 | Difference 3.3 |
Oct 20-22 | 525LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +4.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.6 | Difference 5.6 |
Oct 17-19 | 500LV | Senate (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Shaheen (D) +6.0 | Actual Shaheen (D) +6.3 | Difference 0.3 |
Oct 17-19 | 500LV | President (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +9.0 | Actual Obama (D) +9.6 | Difference 0.6 |
2006
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 31-Nov 2 | 450LV | House (NM-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Wilson (R) +2.0 | Actual Wilson (R) +0.4 | Difference 1.6 |
Oct 31-Nov 2 | 450LV | House (FL-13) General election | Live Phone | Poll Buchanan (R) +3.0 | Actual Buchanan (R) +0.2 | Difference 2.8 |
Oct 31-Nov 1 | 600LV | Senate (NJ) General election | Live Phone | Poll Menendez (D) +2.0 | Actual Menendez (D) +16.0 | Difference 14.0 |
Oct 30 | 500LV | Governor (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ritter (D) +22.0 | Actual Ritter (D) +16.8 | Difference 5.2 |
Oct 25-26 | 600LV | Governor (MD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Ehrlich (R) +1.0 | Actual O'Malley (D) +6.5 | Difference 7.5 |
Oct 23-24 | 400LV | House (PA-4) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hart (R) +12.0 | Actual Altmire (D) +3.9 | Difference 15.9 |
Oct 22-24 | 450LV | House (NM-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Madrid (D) +3.0 | Actual Wilson (R) +0.4 | Difference 3.4 |
Oct 22-23 | 400LV | House (CT-2) General election | Live Phone | Poll Simmons (R) +7.0 | Actual Courtney (D) +0.0 | Difference 7.0 |
Oct 18-22 | 750LV | Governor (FL) General election | Live Phone | Poll Crist (R) +14.0 | Actual Crist (R) +7.1 | Difference 6.9 |
Oct 17-19 | 350LV | House (NE-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Fortenberry (R) +22.0 | Actual Fortenberry (R) +16.7 | Difference 5.3 |
Oct 16-17 | 400LV | House (NC-8) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hayes (R) +16.0 | Actual Hayes (R) +0.3 | Difference 15.7 |
2004
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 25-27 | 500LV | Senate (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Salazar (D) +6.0 | Actual Salazar (D) +4.8 | Difference 1.2 |
Oct 25-27 | 500LV | President (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +9.0 | Actual Bush (R) +4.7 | Difference 4.3 |
Oct 13-16 | 500LV | President (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +5.0 | Actual Bush (R) +4.7 | Difference 0.3 |
Oct 13-15 | 500LV | Senate (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Coors (R) +5.0 | Actual Salazar (D) +4.8 | Difference 9.8 |
Oct 12-14 | 600LV | Senate (KY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bunning (R) +11.0 | Actual Bunning (R) +1.3 | Difference 9.7 |
2002
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 3 | 600LV | Senate (SD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Thune (R) +0.1 | Actual Johnson (D) +0.2 | Difference 0.3 |
Nov 3 | 600LV | Senate (NH) General election | Live Phone | Poll Shaheen (D) +1.8 | Actual Sununu (R) +4.4 | Difference 6.2 |
Nov 3 | 600LV | Senate (MN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Mondale (D) +0.2 | Actual Coleman (R) +2.2 | Difference 2.4 |
Oct 27-29 | 500LV | Senate (SD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Thune (R) +3.0 | Actual Johnson (D) +0.2 | Difference 3.2 |
Oct 27 | 300LV | House (PA-13) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hoeffel (D) +8.0 | Actual Hoeffel (D) +3.6 | Difference 4.4 |
Oct 26-27 | 600LV | Senate (MN) General election | Live Phone | Poll Mondale (D) +2.0 | Actual Coleman (R) +2.2 | Difference 4.2 |
Oct 23-27 | 500LV | Senate (SD) General election | Live Phone | Poll Thune (R) +3.0 | Actual Johnson (D) +0.2 | Difference 3.2 |
Oct 22-23 | 361LV | House (AZ-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Renzi (R) +12.0 | Actual Renzi (R) +3.6 | Difference 8.4 |
Oct 16-17 | 400LV | House (NJ-5) General election | Live Phone | Poll Garrett (R) +15.0 | Actual Garrett (R) +21.2 | Difference 6.2 |
2000
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21-23 | 500LV | Senate (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Santorum (R) +22.0 | Actual Santorum (R) +6.9 | Difference 15.1 |
Oct 21-23 | 800LV | President (PA) General election | Live Phone | Poll Bush (R) +2.0 | Actual Gore (D) +4.2 | Difference 6.2 |
1998
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21 | 300LV | House (IN-9) General election | Live Phone | Poll Leising (R) +10.0 | Actual Hill (D) +2.8 | Difference 12.8 |
Oct 16 | 500LV | Governor (CO) General election | Live Phone | Poll Owens (R) +4.0 | Actual Owens (R) +0.6 | Difference 3.4 |
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