✕
FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings
Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.
B
Rasmussen Reports
Also known as Crosswind Media & Public Relations or Pulse Opinion Research
| Polls analyzed | 772 |
| Races called correctly | 78% |
| Most recent cycle | 2022 |
| Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper | No |
| Other names | Crosswind Media & Public Relations Pulse Opinion Research |
What are pollster ratings?
How accurate are the polls from Rasmussen Reports?
Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.
2022
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30-Nov 3 | 2,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Republicans +5.0 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 23-27 | 2,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Republicans +7.0 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 23-24 | 1,053LV | Governor (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Kemp +10.0 | Actual Kemp +7.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 23-24 | 1,053LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Walker +5.0 | Actual Warnock +1.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 19-20 | 972LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Fetterman +2.0 | Actual Fetterman +4.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 16-20 | 2,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Republicans +4.0 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 19-20 | 972LV | Governor (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Shapiro +3.0 | Actual Shapiro +14.8 | Difference 11.8 |
2020
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28-Nov 1 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden +1.0 | Actual Biden +4.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 800LV | President (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden +3.0 | Actual Biden +1.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 800LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +4.0 | Actual Trump +8.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 29-31 | 800LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden +1.0 | Actual Trump +3.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 28-29 | 800LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Cunningham +3.0 | Actual Tillis +1.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 28-29 | 800LV | President (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +1.0 | Actual Trump +1.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 27-29 | 800LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | IVR/Online | Poll Kelly +5.0 | Actual Kelly +2.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 27-29 | 800LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +4.0 | Actual Biden +0.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 25-27 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +1.0 | Actual Biden +4.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 20-21 | 800LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Tillis +1.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 20-21 | 800LV | President (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +1.0 | Actual Trump +1.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 20-21 | 800LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +4.0 | Actual Trump +3.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 14-20 | 2,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden +3.0 | Actual Biden +4.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 18-19 | 800LV | Senate (AZ) Special election | IVR/Online | Poll Kelly +2.0 | Actual Kelly +2.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 18-19 | 800LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden +1.0 | Actual Trump +8.0 | Difference 9.0 |
| Oct 18-19 | 800LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden +2.0 | Actual Biden +0.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 18-19 | 800LV | President (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Biden +3.0 | Actual Biden +1.2 | Difference 1.8 |
2018
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28-Nov 1 | 2,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Republicans +1.0 | Actual Democrats +8.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Oct 21-25 | 2,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Democrats +3.0 | Actual Democrats +8.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 14-18 | 2,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Democrats +3.0 | Actual Democrats +8.7 | Difference 5.7 |
2017
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31-Nov 3 | 875LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Northam +8.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | 800LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Murphy +15.0 | Actual Murphy +14.1 | Difference 0.9 |
2016
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | President (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +2.0 | Actual Trump +0.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +1.0 | Actual Trump +8.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | President (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Clinton +2.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | President (NH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +6.0 | Actual Clinton +0.4 | Difference 5.6 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | President (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +6.0 | Actual Trump +3.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +2.0 | Actual Trump +1.2 | Difference 3.2 |
| Nov 2-6 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +2.0 | Actual Clinton +2.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Rubio +14.0 | Actual Rubio +7.7 | Difference 6.3 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Toomey +4.0 | Actual Toomey +1.4 | Difference 2.6 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | Senate (NH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Hassan +8.0 | Actual Hassan +0.1 | Difference 7.9 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Portman +14.0 | Actual Portman +20.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Cortez Masto +2.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Nov 2-6 | 525LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Ross +1.0 | Actual Burr +5.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | President (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +1.0 | Actual Trump +0.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Trump +8.1 | Difference 11.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | President (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Clinton +2.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | President (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Trump +3.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Trump +1.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Clinton +2.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Rubio +7.0 | Actual Rubio +7.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll McGinty +4.0 | Actual Toomey +1.4 | Difference 5.4 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | Senate (NH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Hassan +2.0 | Actual Hassan +0.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Portman +8.0 | Actual Portman +20.9 | Difference 12.9 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Cortez Masto +2.0 | Actual Cortez Masto +2.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Burr +4.0 | Actual Burr +5.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 525LV | President (NH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +4.0 | Actual Clinton +0.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 29-31 | 750LV | President (UT) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +11.0 | Actual Trump +18.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 750LV | Senate (UT) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Lee +32.0 | Actual Lee +41.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | President (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +7.0 | Actual Trump +0.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +4.0 | Actual Trump +8.1 | Difference 12.1 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | President (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +1.0 | Actual Clinton +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | President (NH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +8.0 | Actual Clinton +0.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | President (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Trump +3.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +6.0 | Actual Trump +1.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 25-27 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Even | Actual Clinton +2.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Rubio +7.0 | Actual Rubio +7.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll McGinty +6.0 | Actual Toomey +1.4 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | Senate (NH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Hassan +3.0 | Actual Hassan +0.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Portman +7.0 | Actual Portman +20.9 | Difference 13.9 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Cortez Masto +1.0 | Actual Cortez Masto +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 25-27 | 525LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Burr +5.0 | Actual Burr +5.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 17-24 | 875LV | President (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +2.0 | Actual Trump +8.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 17-24 | 875LV | President (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Trump +3.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 17-24 | 875LV | President (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Trump +1.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 17-24 | 875LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Rubio +7.0 | Actual Rubio +7.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 17-24 | 875LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll McGinty +3.0 | Actual Toomey +1.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 17-24 | 875LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Portman +8.0 | Actual Portman +20.9 | Difference 12.9 |
| Oct 17-24 | 875LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Burr +2.0 | Actual Burr +5.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 23-24 | 750LV | Senate (UT) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Lee +30.0 | Actual Lee +41.1 | Difference 11.1 |
| Oct 23-24 | 750LV | President (UT) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +4.0 | Actual Trump +18.1 | Difference 14.1 |
| Oct 23-24 | 750LV | President (ID) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +19.0 | Actual Trump +31.8 | Difference 12.8 |
| Oct 22-24 | 800LV | President (TX) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +7.0 | Actual Trump +9.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 20-24 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +1.0 | Actual Clinton +2.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 17-24 | 875LV | President (PA) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +5.0 | Actual Trump +0.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 20-22 | 826LV | President (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Clinton +4.0 | Actual Clinton +2.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 20-22 | 826LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Cortez Masto +2.0 | Actual Cortez Masto +2.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 17-19 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Trump +3.0 | Actual Clinton +2.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Feb 24 | 620LV | President (TX) Republican primary | Live Phone/Online | Poll Cruz +12.0 | Actual Cruz +17.2 | Difference 5.2 |
| Feb 24 | 411LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | Live Phone/Online | Poll Clinton +40.0 | Actual Clinton +32.0 | Difference 8.0 |
2014
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2-4 | 1,000LV | Senate (LA) Runoff | IVR | Poll Cassidy +16.0 | Actual Cassidy +11.9 | Difference 4.1 |
| Nov 16-19 | 1,000LV | Senate (LA) Runoff | IVR | Poll Cassidy +15.0 | Actual Cassidy +11.9 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 27-Nov 2 | 3,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +3.0 | Actual Republicans +5.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 29-30 | 940LV | Governor (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Hassan +9.0 | Actual Hassan +5.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 29-30 | 940LV | Senate (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Shaheen +7.0 | Actual Shaheen +3.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 28-30 | 990LV | Governor (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Branstad +18.0 | Actual Branstad +21.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 27-30 | 887LV | Governor (AK) General election | IVR | Poll Walker +7.0 | Actual Walker +2.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 28-30 | 990LV | Senate (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Ernst +1.0 | Actual Ernst +8.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Oct 27-30 | 887LV | Senate (AK) General election | IVR | Poll Sullivan +5.0 | Actual Sullivan +2.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 29-30 | 977LV | Governor (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Malloy +1.0 | Actual Malloy +2.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 28-29 | 982LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Hagan +1.0 | Actual Tillis +1.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 27-29 | 967LV | Governor (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Hutchinson +7.0 | Actual Hutchinson +13.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 27-29 | 967LV | Senate (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Cotton +7.0 | Actual Cotton +17.1 | Difference 10.1 |
| Oct 25-27 | 977LV | Governor (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Deal +6.0 | Actual Deal +7.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 25-27 | 600LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Perdue +7.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 25-27 | 977LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Perdue +7.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 22-26 | 908LV | Senate (SD) General election | IVR | Poll Rounds +14.0 | Actual Rounds +20.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 20-26 | 3,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +2.0 | Actual Republicans +5.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 22-23 | 988LV | Senate (LA) Jungle primary | IVR | Poll Landrieu +7.0 | Actual Landrieu +1.1 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 21-23 | 966LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Gardner +6.0 | Actual Gardner +1.9 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 21-23 | 966LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Beauprez +2.0 | Actual Hickenlooper +3.3 | Difference 5.3 |
| Oct 21-22 | 1,000LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Peters +9.0 | Actual Peters +13.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 20-22 | 1,000LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Rauner +1.0 | Actual Rauner +3.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 21-22 | 1,000LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Snyder +3.0 | Actual Snyder +4.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 20-21 | 973LV | Governor (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Burke +1.0 | Actual Walker +5.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 20-21 | 960LV | Governor (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Davis +7.0 | Actual Brownback +3.7 | Difference 10.7 |
| Oct 20-21 | 960LV | Senate (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Orman +5.0 | Actual Roberts +10.6 | Difference 15.6 |
| Oct 13-19 | 3,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Republicans +5.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 15-17 | 1,000LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Scott +1.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 15-16 | 1,000LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McConnell +8.0 | Actual McConnell +15.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Oct 14-16 | 980LV | Governor (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Foley +7.0 | Actual Malloy +2.6 | Difference 9.6 |
| Oct 14-16 | 1,056LV | Governor (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Ducey +5.0 | Actual Ducey +11.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 13-15 | 980LV | Governor (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Baker +2.0 | Actual Baker +1.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 13-15 | 940LV | Senate (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Cotton +3.0 | Actual Cotton +17.1 | Difference 14.1 |
| Oct 13-15 | 940LV | Governor (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Hutchinson +2.0 | Actual Hutchinson +13.9 | Difference 11.9 |
| Oct 13-14 | 965LV | Senate (LA) Jungle primary | IVR | Poll Landrieu +3.0 | Actual Landrieu +1.1 | Difference 1.9 |
2013
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28-29 | 1,002LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll McAuliffe +7.0 | Actual McAuliffe +2.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 27-29 | 1,000LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Christie +18.0 | Actual Christie +22.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 19-21 | 1,000LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll McAuliffe +17.0 | Actual McAuliffe +2.5 | Difference 14.5 |
| Oct 7 | 1,000LV | Senate (NJ) Special election | IVR | Poll Booker +12.0 | Actual Booker +10.9 | Difference 1.1 |
2012
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3-5 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +1.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Nov 4 | 750LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Kaine +2.0 | Actual Kaine +5.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Nov 4 | 750LV | Governor (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Hassan +5.0 | Actual Hassan +12.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Nov 4 | 750LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Nov 4 | 750LV | President (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +2.0 | Actual Obama +5.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 29-Nov 4 | 7,000LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Democrats +1.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Nov 4 | 750LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Nov 1 | 750LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Brown +6.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Nov 1 | 600LV | Senate (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Donnelly +3.0 | Actual Donnelly +5.8 | Difference 2.8 |
| Nov 1 | 750LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Nov 1 | 750LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual Obama +9.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Nov 1 | 600LV | President (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +9.0 | Actual Romney +10.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Casey +1.0 | Actual Casey +9.1 | Difference 8.1 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +1.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +3.0 | Actual Obama +5.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 30 | 750LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +1.0 | Actual Obama +5.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 28-30 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Kaine +5.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 29 | 750LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Baldwin +5.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 29 | 1,000LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +7.0 | Actual Brown +6.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | Senate (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Tester +1.0 | Actual Tester +3.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 29 | 1,000LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Nelson +4.0 | Actual Nelson +13.0 | Difference 9.0 |
| Oct 29 | 750LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +6.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 29 | 1,000LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +1.0 | Actual Obama +6.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 29 | 1,000LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +2.0 | Actual Obama +3.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | President (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +10.0 | Actual Romney +13.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 29 | 1,000LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Obama +0.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 29 | 750LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +3.0 | Actual Obama +5.4 | Difference 8.4 |
| Oct 29 | 1,000LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Thompson +1.0 | Actual Baldwin +5.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 28 | 750LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +2.0 | Actual Brown +6.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Murphy +6.0 | Actual Murphy +11.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 28 | 750LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Obama +3.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 22-28 | 3,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +3.0 | Actual Democrats +1.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 25-27 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +3.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Thompson +1.0 | Actual Baldwin +5.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Senate (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Warren +5.0 | Actual Warren +7.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Nelson +3.0 | Actual Nelson +13.0 | Difference 10.0 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll McCrory +19.0 | Actual McCrory +11.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +6.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +6.0 | Actual Romney +2.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | President (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +19.0 | Actual Obama +23.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Obama +0.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 24 | 500LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Casey +1.0 | Actual Casey +9.1 | Difference 8.1 |
| Oct 24 | 750LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 24 | 500LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual Obama +5.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 22-24 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +3.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 24 | 750LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Kaine +1.0 | Actual Kaine +5.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 23 | 750LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +4.0 | Actual Brown +6.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Governor (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Lamontagne +2.0 | Actual Hassan +12.1 | Difference 14.1 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +1.0 | Actual Obama +6.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | President (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Obama +5.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +2.0 | Actual Obama +6.7 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 23 | 750LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +6.0 | Actual Obama +5.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Heller +5.0 | Actual Heller +1.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Klobuchar +23.0 | Actual Klobuchar +34.7 | Difference 11.7 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Murphy +1.0 | Actual Murphy +11.8 | Difference 10.8 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | Senate (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Flake +6.0 | Actual Flake +3.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | President (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual Obama +7.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +5.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | President (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +7.0 | Actual Obama +17.3 | Difference 10.3 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +8.0 | Actual Romney +9.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 19-21 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +4.0 | Actual Obama +5.4 | Difference 9.4 |
| Oct 17-19 | 3,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +1.0 | Actual Democrats +1.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 18 | 500LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Thompson +2.0 | Actual Baldwin +5.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 18 | 750LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Kaine +1.0 | Actual Kaine +5.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 17-18 | 600LV | Senate (ND) General election | IVR | Poll Berg +5.0 | Actual Heitkamp +0.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 18 | 750LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Nelson +5.0 | Actual Nelson +13.0 | Difference 8.0 |
| Oct 17-18 | 600LV | Governor (ND) General election | IVR | Poll Dalrymple +14.0 | Actual Dalrymple +28.8 | Difference 14.8 |
| Oct 18 | 500LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +2.0 | Actual Obama +6.8 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 18 | 750LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +3.0 | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 17-18 | 600LV | President (ND) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +14.0 | Actual Romney +19.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 18 | 750LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +5.0 | Actual Obama +0.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 16-18 | 1,500LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +3.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 17 | 750LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +5.0 | Actual Brown +6.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll McCaskill +8.0 | Actual McCaskill +15.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll McCrory +11.0 | Actual McCrory +11.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 17 | 750LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +1.0 | Actual Obama +3.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +6.0 | Actual Romney +2.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Romney +11.0 | Actual Romney +9.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | House (MN-8) General election | IVR | Poll Nolan +7.0 | Actual Nolan +8.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | House (MN-6) General election | IVR | Poll Bachmann +6.0 | Actual Bachmann +1.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Mar 29 | 717LV | President (WI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +10.0 | Actual Romney +7.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Mar 28 | 750LV | President (MD) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +17.0 | Actual Romney +20.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Mar 22 | 1,000LV | President (WI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +13.0 | Actual Romney +7.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Mar 21 | 750LV | President (LA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Santorum +12.0 | Actual Santorum +22.3 | Difference 10.3 |
| Mar 15 | 750LV | President (IL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +9.0 | Actual Romney +11.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Mar 8 | 750LV | President (MS) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Santorum +1.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Mar 8 | 750LV | President (AL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Gingrich +1.0 | Actual Santorum +5.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Mar 4 | 750LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Santorum +1.0 | Actual Romney +1.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Mar 4 | 750LV | President (GA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Gingrich +10.0 | Actual Gingrich +21.3 | Difference 11.3 |
| Mar 3 | 750LV | President (TN) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Santorum +4.0 | Actual Santorum +9.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Mar 1 | 750LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Santorum +2.0 | Actual Romney +1.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Mar 1 | 750LV | President (GA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Gingrich +12.0 | Actual Gingrich +21.3 | Difference 9.3 |
| Feb 26 | 750LV | President (MI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +2.0 | Actual Romney +3.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Feb 23 | 750LV | President (MI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +6.0 | Actual Romney +3.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Feb 23 | 750LV | President (AZ) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +13.0 | Actual Romney +19.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Feb 22 | 750LV | President (GA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Gingrich +13.0 | Actual Gingrich +21.3 | Difference 8.3 |
| Feb 21 | 750LV | President (OK) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Santorum +25.0 | Actual Santorum +5.8 | Difference 19.2 |
| Feb 20 | 750LV | President (MI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Santorum +4.0 | Actual Romney +3.3 | Difference 7.3 |
| Feb 16 | 750LV | President (AZ) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +8.0 | Actual Romney +19.8 | Difference 11.8 |
| Feb 15 | 750LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Santorum +18.0 | Actual Romney +1.0 | Difference 19.0 |
| Feb 13 | 750LV | President (MI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Santorum +3.0 | Actual Romney +3.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Jan 28 | 750LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +16.0 | Actual Romney +14.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Jan 25 | 750LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +8.0 | Actual Romney +14.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Jan 22 | 750LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Gingrich +9.0 | Actual Romney +14.5 | Difference 23.5 |
| Jan 18 | 750LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Gingrich +2.0 | Actual Gingrich +12.6 | Difference 10.6 |
| Jan 16 | 750LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +14.0 | Actual Gingrich +12.6 | Difference 26.6 |
| Jan 12 | 750LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +7.0 | Actual Gingrich +12.6 | Difference 19.6 |
| Jan 11 | 750LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +22.0 | Actual Romney +14.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Jan 8 | 722LV | President (NH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +20.0 | Actual Romney +16.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Jan 5 | 750LV | President (NH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +24.0 | Actual Romney +16.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Jan 4 | 865LV | President (NH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +18.0 | Actual Romney +16.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Dec 28 | 750LV | President (IA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +7.0 | Actual Santorum +0.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Dec 19 | 750LV | President (IA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +15.0 | Actual Santorum +0.0 | Difference 15.0 |
| Dec 13 | 750LV | President (IA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +17.0 | Actual Santorum +0.0 | Difference 17.0 |
2010
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | 750LV | Senate (WV) Special election | IVR | Poll Manchin +4.0 | Actual Manchin +10.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 31 | 750LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Blumenthal +7.0 | Actual Blumenthal +11.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 31 | 750LV | Governor (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Foley +2.0 | Actual Malloy +0.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 25-31 | 600LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +12.0 | Actual Republicans +6.8 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Murray +2.0 | Actual Murray +4.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Angle +3.0 | Actual Reid +5.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Senate (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Kirk +4.0 | Actual Kirk +1.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Buck +4.0 | Actual Bennet +1.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Kasich +4.0 | Actual Kasich +2.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Brady +6.0 | Actual Quinn +0.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 30 | 1,000LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Hickenlooper +3.0 | Actual Hickenlooper +14.7 | Difference 11.7 |
| Oct 28 | 750LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Toomey +4.0 | Actual Toomey +2.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Boozman +19.0 | Actual Boozman +21.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +20.0 | Actual McCain +24.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 28 | 750LV | Governor (VT) General election | IVR | Poll Shumlin +5.0 | Actual Shumlin +1.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 28 | 600LV | Governor (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Corbett +9.0 | Actual Corbett +9.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 28 | 750LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Hickenlooper +5.0 | Actual Hickenlooper +14.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Governor (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Beebe +22.0 | Actual Beebe +30.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Governor (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Brewer +14.0 | Actual Brewer +11.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 27 | 750LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Rossi +1.0 | Actual Murray +4.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 27 | 500LV | Senate (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Ayotte +15.0 | Actual Ayotte +23.2 | Difference 8.2 |
| Oct 27 | 750LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Paul +12.0 | Actual Paul +11.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 27 | 750LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Rubio +20.0 | Actual Rubio +19.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 27 | 750LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer +3.0 | Actual Boxer +10.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 27 | 750LV | Governor (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Patrick +2.0 | Actual Patrick +6.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 27 | 750LV | Governor (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Lynch +6.0 | Actual Lynch +7.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 27 | 750LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Scott +3.0 | Actual Scott +1.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 27 | 750LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +4.0 | Actual Brown +12.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 26 | 750LV | Senate (WV) Special election | IVR | Poll Manchin +3.0 | Actual Manchin +10.1 | Difference 7.1 |
| Oct 26 | 750LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Portman +24.0 | Actual Portman +17.4 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 26 | 750LV | Senate (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Kirk +4.0 | Actual Kirk +1.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 26 | 750LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Kasich +4.0 | Actual Kasich +2.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | Governor (ME) General election | IVR | Poll LePage +14.0 | Actual LePage +11.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Johnson +7.0 | Actual Johnson +4.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Wyden +11.0 | Actual Wyden +18.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Angle +4.0 | Actual Reid +5.9 | Difference 9.9 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Buck +4.0 | Actual Bennet +1.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | Governor (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Walker +10.0 | Actual Walker +5.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | Governor (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Dudley +3.0 | Actual Kitzhaber +1.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 25 | 750LV | Governor (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Sandoval +23.0 | Actual Sandoval +12.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Oct 24 | 750LV | Senate (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Mikulski +18.0 | Actual Mikulski +26.5 | Difference 8.5 |
| Oct 24 | 750LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Blumenthal +13.0 | Actual Blumenthal +11.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 24 | 750LV | Governor (MD) General election | IVR | Poll O'Malley +10.0 | Actual O'Malley +14.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 24 | 750LV | Governor (NM) General election | IVR | Poll Martinez +10.0 | Actual Martinez +6.7 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 24 | 750LV | Governor (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Deal +10.0 | Actual Deal +10.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 24 | 500LV | Governor (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Malloy +3.0 | Actual Malloy +0.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 18-24 | 600LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +12.0 | Actual Republicans +6.8 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 24 | 500LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Isakson +30.0 | Actual Isakson +19.3 | Difference 10.7 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Paul +7.0 | Actual Paul +11.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Senate (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Kirk +2.0 | Actual Kirk +1.6 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Blumenthal +11.0 | Actual Blumenthal +11.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Senate (WV) Special election | IVR | Poll Raese +2.0 | Actual Manchin +10.1 | Difference 12.1 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer +4.0 | Actual Boxer +10.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Kasich +4.0 | Actual Kasich +2.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Brady +5.0 | Actual Quinn +0.9 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Governor (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Malloy +3.0 | Actual Malloy +0.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 23 | 1,000LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +9.0 | Actual Brown +12.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 20-22 | 3,500LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +9.0 | Actual Republicans +6.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | Governor (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Haley +10.0 | Actual Haley +4.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 21 | 600LV | Governor (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Corbett +5.0 | Actual Corbett +9.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | Senate (ND) General election | IVR | Poll Hoeven +47.0 | Actual Hoeven +54.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 20-21 | 500LV | Senate (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Coats +18.0 | Actual Coats +14.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 21 | 750LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer +2.0 | Actual Boxer +10.0 | Difference 8.0 |
| Oct 21 | 750LV | Governor (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Perry +9.0 | Actual Perry +12.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 21 | 750LV | Governor (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Chafee +10.0 | Actual Chafee +2.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Oct 21 | 750LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +6.0 | Actual Brown +12.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 21 | 750LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Toomey +4.0 | Actual Toomey +2.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 20 | 500LV | Governor (SD) General election | IVR | Poll Daugaard +19.0 | Actual Daugaard +23.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 20 | 750LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Dayton +3.0 | Actual Dayton +0.4 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 20 | 750LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Brady +8.0 | Actual Quinn +0.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 20 | 500LV | House (SD-1) General election | IVR | Poll Noem +5.0 | Actual Noem +2.2 | Difference 2.8 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Governor (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Cuomo +14.0 | Actual Cuomo +29.3 | Difference 15.3 |
| Oct 19 | 750LV | Senate (WV) Special election | IVR | Poll Raese +7.0 | Actual Manchin +10.1 | Difference 17.1 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Senate (SC) General election | IVR | Poll DeMint +37.0 | Actual DeMint +34.4 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Senate (NY) Special election | IVR | Poll Gillibrand +21.0 | Actual Gillibrand +27.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Schumer +28.0 | Actual Schumer +34.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 19 | 750LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Blunt +9.0 | Actual Blunt +13.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Governor (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Haley +9.0 | Actual Haley +4.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 18-19 | 500LV | House (ND-1) General election | IVR | Poll Berg +10.0 | Actual Berg +9.8 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 18 | 750LV | Senate (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Kirk +4.0 | Actual Kirk +1.6 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 18 | 750LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Rubio +11.0 | Actual Rubio +19.2 | Difference 8.2 |
| Oct 18 | 750LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Scott +6.0 | Actual Scott +1.1 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 18 | 500LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Paul +5.0 | Actual Paul +11.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 17 | 750LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Murray +3.0 | Actual Murray +4.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Snyder +20.0 | Actual Snyder +18.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 11-17 | 600LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +9.0 | Actual Republicans +6.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 17 | 750LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Angle +3.0 | Actual Reid +5.9 | Difference 8.9 |
| Oct 17 | 750LV | Governor (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Sandoval +19.0 | Actual Sandoval +12.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | Senate (WV) Special election | IVR | Poll Raese +3.0 | Actual Manchin +10.1 | Difference 13.1 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Blunt +6.0 | Actual Blunt +13.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Buck +1.0 | Actual Bennet +1.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer +4.0 | Actual Boxer +10.0 | Difference 6.0 |
| Oct 16 | 750LV | Governor (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Patrick +5.0 | Actual Patrick +6.4 | Difference 1.4 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Hickenlooper +5.0 | Actual Hickenlooper +14.7 | Difference 9.7 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +5.0 | Actual Brown +12.9 | Difference 7.9 |
| Oct 16 | 1,000LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Kasich +6.0 | Actual Kasich +2.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 14 | 500LV | Senate (DE) Special election | IVR | Poll Coons +11.0 | Actual Coons +16.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 14 | 750LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Blumenthal +5.0 | Actual Blumenthal +11.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 14 | 750LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Buck +2.0 | Actual Bennet +1.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 14 | 500LV | Governor (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Malloy +4.0 | Actual Malloy +0.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 14 | 750LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Hickenlooper +4.0 | Actual Hickenlooper +14.7 | Difference 10.7 |
| Oct 13 | 500LV | Senate (UT) General election | IVR | Poll Lee +33.0 | Actual Lee +28.8 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 13 | 500LV | Senate (HI) General election | IVR | Poll Inouye +13.0 | Actual Inouye +53.2 | Difference 40.2 |
| Oct 13 | 750LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Boxer +3.0 | Actual Boxer +10.0 | Difference 7.0 |
| Oct 13 | 500LV | Senate (AK) General election | IVR | Poll Miller +1.0 | Actual Murkowski +4.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 13 | 500LV | Governor (UT) Special election | IVR | Poll Herbert +37.0 | Actual Herbert +32.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 13 | 500LV | Governor (HI) General election | IVR | Poll Abercrombie +2.0 | Actual Abercrombie +17.1 | Difference 15.1 |
| Oct 13 | 750LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +6.0 | Actual Brown +12.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 13 | 500LV | Governor (AK) General election | IVR | Poll Parnell +13.0 | Actual Parnell +21.5 | Difference 8.5 |
| Oct 12 | 750LV | Senate (WV) Special election | IVR | Poll Raese +3.0 | Actual Manchin +10.1 | Difference 13.1 |
| Oct 12 | 750LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Toomey +10.0 | Actual Toomey +2.0 | Difference 8.0 |
| Oct 12 | 500LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Burr +14.0 | Actual Burr +11.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 12 | 750LV | Governor (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Corbett +14.0 | Actual Corbett +9.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 12 | 500LV | Governor (ME) General election | IVR | Poll LePage +14.0 | Actual LePage +11.7 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 12 | 750LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Brady +6.0 | Actual Quinn +0.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Jan 11 | 1,000LV | Senate (MA) Special election | IVR | Poll Coakley +2.0 | Actual Brown +4.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Jan 4 | 500LV | Senate (MA) Special election | IVR | Poll Coakley +9.0 | Actual Brown +4.8 | Difference 13.8 |
2009
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | 1,000LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Christie +3.0 | Actual Christie +3.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 27 | 1,000LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll McDonnell +13.0 | Actual McDonnell +17.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Christie +3.0 | Actual Christie +3.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 19 | 750LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Christie +2.0 | Actual Christie +3.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 14 | 750LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Christie +4.0 | Actual Christie +3.6 | Difference 0.4 |
2008
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 | 700LV | Senate (GA) Runoff | IVR | Poll Chambliss +4.0 | Actual Chambliss +14.9 | Difference 10.9 |
| Nov 1-3 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +6.0 | Actual Obama +7.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Nov 2 | 1,000LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +6.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Nov 2 | 1,000LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +4.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Nov 2 | 500LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +15.0 | Actual Obama +15.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Nov 2 | 1,000LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +1.0 | Actual Obama +0.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Nov 2 | 1,000LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual McCain +0.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Nov 2 | 1,000LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +1.0 | Actual Obama +2.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Nov 2 | 1,000LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +9.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | President (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +22.0 | Actual Obama +25.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Collins +16.0 | Actual Collins +22.8 | Difference 6.8 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +6.0 | Actual Obama +10.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | President (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +13.0 | Actual Obama +17.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 29-31 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual Obama +7.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Merkley +3.0 | Actual Merkley +3.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 30 | 700LV | Senate (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Shaheen +8.0 | Actual Shaheen +6.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | President (SD) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +9.0 | Actual McCain +8.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +10.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | President (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +12.0 | Actual Obama +16.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 30 | 700LV | President (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +7.0 | Actual Obama +9.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | President (GA) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +5.0 | Actual McCain +5.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Chambliss +5.0 | Actual Chambliss +2.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McConnell +7.0 | Actual McConnell +5.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 29 | 700LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +2.0 | Actual Obama +0.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 29 | 700LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Hagan +6.0 | Actual Hagan +8.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | President (MT) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +4.0 | Actual McCain +2.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | President (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +12.0 | Actual McCain +16.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Oct 28-29 | 500LV | President (IN) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +3.0 | Actual Obama +1.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | President (NM) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +10.0 | Actual Obama +15.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | President (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +12.0 | Actual Obama +10.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +10.0 | Actual Obama +16.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | President (AK) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +16.0 | Actual McCain +21.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 26-28 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +3.0 | Actual Obama +7.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (NM) General election | IVR | Poll Udall +15.0 | Actual Udall +22.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Coleman +4.0 | Actual Franken +0.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (AK) General election | IVR | Poll Begich +8.0 | Actual Begich +1.2 | Difference 6.8 |
| Oct 27 | 500LV | President (MS) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +8.0 | Actual McCain +13.2 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 27 | 500LV | President (AR) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +10.0 | Actual McCain +19.9 | Difference 9.9 |
| Oct 27 | 500LV | Senate (MS) Special election | IVR | Poll Wicker +11.0 | Actual Wicker +9.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 27 | 500LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +7.0 | Actual Obama +10.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 27 | 700LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +12.6 | Difference 8.6 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +6.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +4.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +1.0 | Actual McCain +0.1 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +2.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +9.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +5.0 | Actual McCain +8.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 20-26 | 600LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +7.0 | Actual Democrats +11.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +1.0 | Actual Obama +0.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | President (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +27.0 | Actual Obama +24.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 23-25 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +8.0 | Actual Obama +7.3 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Senate (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Harkin +16.0 | Actual Harkin +25.4 | Difference 9.4 |
| Oct 23 | 700LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll McCrory +4.0 | Actual Perdue +3.4 | Difference 7.4 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +7.0 | Actual Obama +13.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 23 | 700LV | President (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +9.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 23 | 700LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +2.0 | Actual Obama +0.3 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +8.0 | Actual Obama +9.6 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 23 | 700LV | Senate (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Shaheen +6.0 | Actual Shaheen +6.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | President (GA) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +5.0 | Actual McCain +5.2 | Difference 0.2 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Franken +4.0 | Actual Franken +0.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 20-22 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +7.0 | Actual Obama +7.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | Senate (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Chambliss +2.0 | Actual Chambliss +2.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | Governor (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Gregoire +2.0 | Actual Gregoire +6.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +11.0 | Actual Obama +17.2 | Difference 6.2 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | President (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +15.0 | Actual Obama +10.3 | Difference 4.7 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | Senate (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Cornyn +15.0 | Actual Cornyn +12.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | Senate (LA) General election | IVR | Poll Landrieu +10.0 | Actual Landrieu +6.4 | Difference 3.6 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | Senate (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McConnell +7.0 | Actual McConnell +5.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | President (LA) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +16.0 | Actual McCain +18.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | President (KY) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +8.0 | Actual McCain +16.2 | Difference 8.2 |
| Oct 21 | 500LV | President (TX) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +10.0 | Actual McCain +11.8 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 20 | 500LV | Governor (WV) General election | IVR | Poll Manchin +50.0 | Actual Manchin +44.1 | Difference 5.9 |
| Oct 20 | 500LV | President (WV) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +9.0 | Actual McCain +13.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 20 | 500LV | President (SC) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +11.0 | Actual McCain +9.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 19 | 1,000LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +2.0 | Actual Obama +4.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Oct 19 | 700LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +3.0 | Actual Obama +0.3 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 19 | 1,000LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual McCain +0.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 19 | 1,000LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +1.0 | Actual Obama +2.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 19 | 1,000LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual Obama +9.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 17-19 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +7.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 16 | 700LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Warner +25.0 | Actual Warner +31.3 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 14-16 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +7.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 16 | 500LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Alexander +28.0 | Actual Alexander +33.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 16 | 700LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Udall +7.0 | Actual Udall +10.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 16 | 700LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +10.0 | Actual Obama +6.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 16 | 500LV | President (TN) General election | IVR | Poll McCain +12.0 | Actual McCain +15.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 16 | 700LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual Obama +12.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Oct 16 | 700LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +7.0 | Actual Obama +9.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 15 | 700LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +6.0 | Actual McCain +0.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 14 | 500LV | Senate (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Merkley +3.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 14 | 700LV | Governor (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Nixon +19.0 | Actual Nixon +18.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 14 | 700LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +4.6 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 14 | 500LV | President (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +20.0 | Actual Obama +26.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 14 | 500LV | President (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +17.0 | Actual Obama +22.4 | Difference 5.4 |
| Oct 14 | 500LV | President (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Obama +13.0 | Actual Obama +16.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| May 5 | 800LV | President (KY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +25.0 | Actual Clinton +36.5 | Difference 11.5 |
| May 4 | 840LV | President (WV) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +29.0 | Actual Clinton +41.2 | Difference 12.2 |
| May 1 | 867LV | President (OR) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +12.0 | Actual Obama +18.2 | Difference 6.2 |
| May 1 | 831LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +9.0 | Actual Obama +14.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Apr 29 | 400LV | President (IN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +5.0 | Actual Clinton +1.1 | Difference 3.9 |
| Apr 28 | 774LV | President (NC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +14.0 | Actual Obama +14.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Apr 20 | 722LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +5.0 | Actual Clinton +9.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Apr 17 | 730LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Clinton +9.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Apr 14 | 741LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +9.0 | Actual Clinton +9.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Apr 7 | 730LV | President (PA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +5.0 | Actual Clinton +9.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Mar 5 | 816LV | President (MS) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +14.0 | Actual Obama +24.4 | Difference 10.4 |
| Mar 2 | 710LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +1.0 | Actual Clinton +3.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Mar 2 | 858LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +6.0 | Actual Clinton +8.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Feb 28 | 851LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +2.0 | Actual Clinton +8.7 | Difference 6.7 |
| Feb 27 | 530LV | President (TX) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +20.0 | Actual McCain +13.4 | Difference 6.6 |
| Feb 27 | 503LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Clinton +3.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Feb 25 | 862LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +5.0 | Actual Clinton +8.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Feb 25 | 704LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +26.0 | Actual McCain +22.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Feb 24 | 514LV | President (VT) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +51.0 | Actual McCain +57.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Feb 24 | 1,013LV | President (VT) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +24.0 | Actual Obama +20.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Feb 24 | 873LV | President (TX) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +21.0 | Actual McCain +13.4 | Difference 7.6 |
| Feb 24 | 646LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +1.0 | Actual Clinton +3.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Feb 23 | 646LV | President (RI) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +15.0 | Actual Clinton +18.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Feb 21 | 730LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +27.0 | Actual McCain +22.2 | Difference 4.8 |
| Feb 21 | 902LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +8.0 | Actual Clinton +8.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Feb 20 | 762LV | President (TX) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +9.0 | Actual McCain +13.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Feb 20 | 577LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Clinton +3.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Feb 14 | 796LV | President (TX) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +8.0 | Actual McCain +13.4 | Difference 5.4 |
| Feb 14 | 577LV | President (TX) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +16.0 | Actual Clinton +3.5 | Difference 12.5 |
| Feb 13 | 668LV | President (OH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +17.0 | Actual McCain +22.2 | Difference 5.2 |
| Feb 13 | 754LV | President (OH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +14.0 | Actual Clinton +8.7 | Difference 5.3 |
| Feb 13 | 855LV | President (WI) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +4.0 | Actual Obama +17.3 | Difference 13.3 |
| Feb 13 | 526LV | President (WI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +21.0 | Actual McCain +17.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Feb 6-7 | 719LV | President (VA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +18.0 | Actual Obama +28.2 | Difference 10.2 |
| Feb 6 | 925LV | President (MD) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +26.0 | Actual Obama +25.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Feb 4 | 835LV | President (NJ) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +6.0 | Actual Clinton +9.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Feb 2 | 798LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +1.0 | Actual Clinton +8.3 | Difference 9.3 |
| Feb 2 | 524LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +15.0 | Actual Obama +35.3 | Difference 20.3 |
| Feb 2 | 783LV | President (GA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +3.0 | Actual Huckabee +2.3 | Difference 5.3 |
| Feb 2 | 693LV | President (CA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Even | Actual McCain +7.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Jan 31-Feb 1 | 799LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +18.0 | Actual Clinton +17.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Jan 31-Feb 1 | 524LV | President (NY) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +19.0 | Actual McCain +24.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Jan 31 | 593LV | President (MO) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +3.0 | Actual McCain +1.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Jan 31 | 507LV | President (MO) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +9.0 | Actual Obama +1.4 | Difference 10.4 |
| Jan 31 | 537LV | President (AZ) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +5.0 | Actual Clinton +8.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Jan 31 | 890LV | President (AL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +8.0 | Actual Huckabee +4.2 | Difference 12.2 |
| Jan 31 | 576LV | President (AL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +5.0 | Actual Obama +14.5 | Difference 19.5 |
| Jan 31 | 612LV | President (AZ) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +9.0 | Actual McCain +12.6 | Difference 3.6 |
| Jan 30 | 448LV | President (TN) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +14.0 | Actual Clinton +13.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Jan 30 | 591LV | President (NJ) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +14.0 | Actual McCain +27.0 | Difference 13.0 |
| Jan 30 | 785LV | President (NJ) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +12.0 | Actual Clinton +9.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Jan 30 | 531LV | President (TN) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +9.0 | Actual Huckabee +2.7 | Difference 11.7 |
| Jan 29 | 807LV | President (CA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Clinton +8.3 | Difference 5.3 |
| Jan 29 | 504LV | President (IL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +8.0 | Actual McCain +18.8 | Difference 10.8 |
| Jan 29 | 631LV | President (IL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +36.0 | Actual Obama +31.9 | Difference 4.1 |
| Jan 29 | 652LV | President (CA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +4.0 | Actual McCain +7.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Jan 28 | 408LV | President (MA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +32.0 | Actual Romney +10.3 | Difference 21.7 |
| Jan 28 | 1,023LV | President (MA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +6.0 | Actual Clinton +15.5 | Difference 9.5 |
| Jan 27 | 492LV | President (CT) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +16.0 | Actual McCain +19.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Jan 27 | 899LV | President (CT) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Obama +4.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Jan 27 | 578LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Even | Actual McCain +5.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Jan 27 | 474LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +22.0 | Actual Clinton +16.8 | Difference 5.2 |
| Jan 26 | 437LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +19.0 | Actual Clinton +16.8 | Difference 2.2 |
| Jan 26 | 500LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +6.0 | Actual McCain +5.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Jan 24 | 589LV | President (MO) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Huckabee +1.0 | Actual McCain +1.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Jan 23 | 508LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +25.0 | Actual Clinton +16.8 | Difference 8.2 |
| Jan 23 | 676LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +4.0 | Actual McCain +5.0 | Difference 9.0 |
| Jan 23 | 846LV | President (AL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Huckabee +4.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Jan 22 | 768LV | President (GA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Huckabee +15.0 | Actual Huckabee +2.3 | Difference 12.7 |
| Jan 22 | 571LV | President (GA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +6.0 | Actual Obama +35.3 | Difference 29.3 |
| Jan 21 | 624LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +15.0 | Actual Obama +28.9 | Difference 13.9 |
| Jan 20 | 754LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +5.0 | Actual McCain +5.0 | Difference 10.0 |
| Jan 20 | 672LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +18.0 | Actual Clinton +16.8 | Difference 1.2 |
| Jan 16-17 | 596LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +21.0 | Actual Clinton +17.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Jan 16 | 571LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +13.0 | Actual Obama +28.9 | Difference 15.9 |
| Jan 16 | 895LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Even | Actual McCain +3.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Jan 15 | 866LV | President (NJ) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +18.0 | Actual Clinton +9.8 | Difference 8.2 |
| Jan 13 | 516LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual Obama +28.9 | Difference 23.9 |
| Jan 13 | 911LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +9.0 | Actual McCain +3.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Jan 9-12 | 781LV | President (FL) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +1.0 | Actual McCain +5.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Jan 9-12 | 682LV | President (FL) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Clinton +24.0 | Actual Clinton +16.8 | Difference 7.2 |
| Jan 9 | 785LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +3.0 | Actual McCain +3.3 | Difference 0.3 |
| Jan 9 | 371LV | President (MI) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Romney +1.0 | Actual Romney +9.4 | Difference 8.4 |
| Jan 9 | 494LV | President (SC) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +12.0 | Actual Obama +28.9 | Difference 16.9 |
| Jan 5-7 | 1,549LV | President (NH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +1.0 | Actual McCain +5.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Jan 5-7 | 1,774LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +7.0 | Actual Clinton +2.6 | Difference 9.6 |
| Jan 5-6 | 600LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +10.0 | Actual Clinton +2.6 | Difference 12.6 |
| Jan 4-5 | 600LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +12.0 | Actual Clinton +2.6 | Difference 14.6 |
| Jan 4 | 510LV | President (NH) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +10.0 | Actual Clinton +2.6 | Difference 12.6 |
| Jan 4 | 441LV | President (NH) Republican primary | IVR | Poll McCain +5.0 | Actual McCain +5.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Dec 17 | 775LV | President (IA) Democratic primary | IVR | Poll Obama +5.0 | Actual Obama +3.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Dec 17 | 496LV | President (IA) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Huckabee +1.0 | Actual Huckabee +9.2 | Difference 8.2 |
2007
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | 500LV | Governor (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Beshear +15.0 | Actual Beshear +17.4 | Difference 2.4 |
2006
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | 500LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Crist +8.0 | Actual Crist +7.1 | Difference 0.9 |
| Nov 5 | 500LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Talent +1.0 | Actual McCaskill +2.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Nov 4 | 500LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Corker +4.0 | Actual Corker +2.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Nov 4 | 500LV | Senate (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Tester +2.0 | Actual Tester +0.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Nov 2 | 500LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Webb +0.4 | Difference 0.4 |
| Nov 2 | 500LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Corker +8.0 | Actual Corker +2.7 | Difference 5.3 |
| Nov 2 | 500LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll McCaskill +1.0 | Actual McCaskill +2.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Nov 2 | 500LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Blagojevich +7.0 | Actual Blagojevich +10.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Nov 2 | 500LV | Governor (AK) General election | IVR | Poll Palin +5.0 | Actual Palin +7.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Menendez +5.0 | Actual Menendez +16.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Tester +4.0 | Actual Tester +0.9 | Difference 3.1 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Klobuchar +14.0 | Actual Klobuchar +20.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Hatch +2.0 | Actual Pawlenty +1.0 | Difference 3.0 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | Governor (MD) General election | IVR | Poll O'Malley +1.0 | Actual O'Malley +6.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Cardin +5.0 | Actual Cardin +10.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 31 | 500LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Ensign +12.0 | Actual Ensign +14.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 31 | 500LV | Governor (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Gibbons +2.0 | Actual Gibbons +4.2 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Corker +2.0 | Actual Corker +2.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll McCaskill +1.0 | Actual McCaskill +2.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 30 | 500LV | Governor (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Baldacci +14.0 | Actual Baldacci +7.9 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Webb +5.0 | Actual Webb +0.4 | Difference 4.6 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | Governor (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Beebe +12.0 | Actual Beebe +14.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Menendez +5.0 | Actual Menendez +16.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Oct 29 | 500LV | Governor (AK) General election | IVR | Poll Palin +1.0 | Actual Palin +7.4 | Difference 6.4 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Lieberman +8.0 | Actual Lieberman +10.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Governor (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Kulongoski +7.0 | Actual Kulongoski +8.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Governor (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Rendell +18.0 | Actual Rendell +20.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Governor (CT) General election | IVR | Poll Rell +22.0 | Actual Rell +27.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Governor (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Schwarzenegger +13.0 | Actual Schwarzenegger +17.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 28 | 500LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Casey +13.0 | Actual Casey +17.4 | Difference 4.4 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Cantwell +12.0 | Actual Cantwell +16.9 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | Senate (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Tester +3.0 | Actual Tester +0.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | Senate (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Cardin +5.0 | Actual Cardin +10.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | Governor (MD) General election | IVR | Poll O'Malley +3.0 | Actual O'Malley +6.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Crist +11.0 | Actual Crist +7.1 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Allen +2.0 | Actual Webb +0.4 | Difference 2.4 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Menendez +16.0 | Difference 16.0 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Talent +2.0 | Actual McCaskill +2.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Senate (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Klobuchar +14.0 | Actual Klobuchar +20.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Governor (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Hatch +1.0 | Actual Pawlenty +1.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 24 | 500LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Brown +11.0 | Actual Brown +12.3 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 24 | 500LV | Governor (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Perry +11.0 | Actual Perry +9.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 24 | 500LV | Governor (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Strickland +22.0 | Actual Strickland +23.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Senate (TX) General election | IVR | Poll Hutchison +26.0 | Actual Hutchison +25.6 | Difference 0.4 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Corker +2.0 | Actual Corker +2.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Governor (SC) General election | IVR | Poll Sanford +23.0 | Actual Sanford +10.3 | Difference 12.7 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Governor (MA) General election | IVR | Poll Patrick +24.0 | Actual Patrick +20.3 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Governor (KS) General election | IVR | Poll Sebelius +19.0 | Actual Sebelius +17.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Governor (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Ritter +12.0 | Actual Ritter +16.8 | Difference 4.8 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | Governor (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Beebe +8.0 | Actual Beebe +14.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Stabenow +16.0 | Actual Stabenow +15.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | Governor (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Granholm +11.0 | Actual Granholm +14.1 | Difference 3.1 |
| Oct 22 | 500LV | Governor (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Culver +4.0 | Actual Culver +9.7 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Corker +2.0 | Actual Corker +2.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Senate (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Whitehouse +8.0 | Actual Whitehouse +7.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Governor (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Carcieri +7.0 | Actual Carcieri +2.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 18 | 500LV | Senate (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Tester +3.0 | Actual Tester +0.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 18 | 500LV | Governor (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Doyle +4.0 | Actual Doyle +7.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Cantwell +15.0 | Actual Cantwell +16.9 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Ensign +9.0 | Actual Ensign +14.6 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Senate (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Snowe +46.0 | Actual Snowe +53.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Governor (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Gibbons +8.0 | Actual Gibbons +4.2 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Governor (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Baldacci +8.0 | Actual Baldacci +7.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 17 | 500LV | Governor (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Crist +5.0 | Actual Crist +7.1 | Difference 2.1 |
2005
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | 500LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Corzine +5.0 | Actual Corzine +10.4 | Difference 5.4 |
| Nov 2 | 1,000LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Kaine +3.0 | Actual Kaine +5.7 | Difference 2.7 |
| Oct 27 | 500LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Kaine +2.0 | Actual Kaine +5.7 | Difference 3.7 |
| Oct 24 | 600LV | Governor (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Kilgore +2.0 | Actual Kaine +5.7 | Difference 7.7 |
| Oct 19 | 500LV | Governor (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Corzine +9.0 | Actual Corzine +10.4 | Difference 1.4 |
2004
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 3,000LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +2.4 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +1.7 | Actual Bush +2.5 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 25-31 | 600LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +2.0 | Actual Kerry +2.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 25-31 | 600LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Bush +2.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 25-31 | 600LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +3.0 | Actual Bush +5.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 25-31 | 600LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +4.0 | Actual Kerry +3.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 17-30 | 400LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +12.0 | Actual Kerry +6.7 | Difference 5.3 |
| Oct 27-29 | 600LV | President (MN) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +1.0 | Actual Kerry +3.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 27-29 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +0.8 | Actual Bush +2.5 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 27-29 | 3,000LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +2.2 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 27 | 500LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +5.0 | Actual Bush +5.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +5.0 | Actual Bush +10.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 24-26 | 3,000LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +2.2 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 4.9 |
| Oct 24-26 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +1.7 | Actual Bush +2.5 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 20-26 | 537LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Bush +2.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 20-26 | 561LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +5.0 | Actual Kerry +3.4 | Difference 1.6 |
| Oct 20-26 | 567LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Bush +5.0 | Difference 5.0 |
| Oct 26 | 500LV | President (NM) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Bush +0.8 | Difference 3.2 |
| Oct 25 | 500LV | Senate (SD) General election | IVR | Poll Thune +3.0 | Actual Thune +1.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 23 | 500LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +2.0 | Actual Bush +2.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 21-23 | 3,000LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +2.4 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 21-23 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +0.4 | Actual Bush +2.5 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 17-23 | 424LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +3.0 | Actual Kerry +2.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Oct 9-22 | 400LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +2.0 | Actual Bush +0.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 20 | 500LV | Senate (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Burr +4.0 | Actual Burr +4.6 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 18-20 | 3,000LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +3.6 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 6.3 |
| Oct 18-20 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +2.6 | Actual Bush +2.5 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 7-20 | 400LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +5.0 | Actual Bush +7.2 | Difference 2.2 |
| Oct 20 | 500LV | Senate (OK) General election | IVR | Poll Coburn +5.0 | Actual Coburn +11.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 6-19 | 400LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +8.0 | Actual Kerry +7.2 | Difference 0.8 |
| Oct 6-19 | 500LV | President (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +7.0 | Actual Kerry +4.2 | Difference 2.8 |
| Oct 18 | 500LV | President (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +2.0 | Actual Kerry +1.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 12-18 | 537LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Bush +2.1 | Difference 2.1 |
| Oct 18 | 500LV | Senate (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Coors +1.0 | Actual Salazar +4.8 | Difference 5.8 |
| Oct 18 | 500LV | President (CO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +5.0 | Actual Bush +4.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 11-17 | 772LV | President (MN) General election | IVR/Online | Poll Bush +1.0 | Actual Kerry +3.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 15-17 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +0.2 | Actual Bush +2.5 | Difference 2.3 |
| Oct 15-17 | 3,000LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +2.9 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 5.6 |
| Oct 14 | 500LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Feingold +10.0 | Actual Feingold +11.2 | Difference 1.2 |
| Oct 12-14 | 3,000LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +3.5 | Actual Bush +2.5 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 12-14 | 3,000LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +1.3 | Actual Republicans +2.7 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 14 | 500LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Kerry +1.0 | Actual Kerry +0.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 12 | 500LV | President (SD) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +10.0 | Actual Bush +21.5 | Difference 11.5 |
| Oct 12 | 500LV | Senate (SD) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Thune +1.2 | Difference 1.2 |
2002
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | 600LV | Governor (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Blagojevich +15.0 | Actual Blagojevich +7.1 | Difference 7.9 |
2000
| Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4-6 | 3,750LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +2.5 | Actual Republicans +0.4 | Difference 2.1 |
| Nov 4-6 | 1,000LV | Senate (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Kohl +17.0 | Actual Kohl +24.5 | Difference 7.5 |
| Nov 4-6 | 909LV | Senate (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Gorton +4.0 | Actual Cantwell +0.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Nov 4-6 | 1,091LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Santorum +14.0 | Actual Santorum +6.9 | Difference 7.1 |
| Nov 4-6 | 637LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Franks +1.0 | Actual Corzine +3.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Nov 4-6 | 1,000LV | President (WI) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Gore +0.2 | Difference 4.2 |
| Nov 4-6 | 909LV | President (WA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +1.0 | Actual Gore +5.6 | Difference 6.6 |
| Nov 4-6 | 1,091LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Gore +4.2 | Difference 8.2 |
| Nov 4-6 | 3,750LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +9.0 | Actual Gore +0.5 | Difference 9.5 |
| Nov 4-6 | 637LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +6.0 | Actual Gore +15.8 | Difference 9.8 |
| Nov 3-5 | 787LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Abraham +6.0 | Actual Stabenow +1.6 | Difference 7.6 |
| Nov 3-5 | 787LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +1.0 | Actual Gore +5.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Nov 4 | 680LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Clinton +8.0 | Actual Clinton +12.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Nov 4 | 680LV | President (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +14.0 | Actual Gore +25.0 | Difference 11.0 |
| Nov 1-3 | 644LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Santorum +20.0 | Actual Santorum +6.9 | Difference 13.1 |
| Nov 1-3 | 1,000LV | President (IA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Gore +0.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Nov 1-3 | 1,549LV | President (AR) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +2.0 | Actual Bush +5.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Nov 1-3 | 644LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +5.0 | Actual Gore +4.2 | Difference 9.2 |
| Nov 2 | 1,066LV | President (WV) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +3.0 | Actual Bush +6.3 | Difference 3.3 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 577LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll McCollum +3.0 | Actual Nelson +4.9 | Difference 7.9 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 577LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +2.0 | Actual Bush +0.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 3,750LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Democrats +0.2 | Actual Republicans +0.4 | Difference 0.6 |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 3,750LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +3.0 | Actual Gore +0.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Nov 2 | 1,066LV | Governor (WV) General election | IVR | Poll Wise +5.0 | Actual Wise +2.9 | Difference 2.1 |
| Nov 1 | 1,163LV | President (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +10.0 | Actual Bush +12.8 | Difference 2.8 |
| Nov 1 | 1,163LV | Governor (NC) General election | IVR | Poll Easley +2.0 | Actual Easley +5.8 | Difference 3.8 |
| Oct 29-31 | 897LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Allen +6.0 | Actual Allen +4.6 | Difference 1.4 |
| Oct 29-31 | 776LV | Senate (DE) General election | IVR | Poll Carper +3.0 | Actual Carper +11.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 29-31 | 723LV | Governor (IN) General election | IVR | Poll O'Bannon +14.0 | Actual O'Bannon +14.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 29-31 | 897LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +10.0 | Actual Bush +8.0 | Difference 2.0 |
| Oct 29-31 | 594LV | President (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +6.0 | Actual Gore +15.8 | Difference 9.8 |
| Oct 29-31 | 723LV | President (IN) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +19.0 | Actual Bush +15.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 29-31 | 776LV | President (DE) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +1.0 | Actual Gore +13.1 | Difference 12.1 |
| Oct 29-31 | 594LV | Senate (NJ) General election | IVR | Poll Corzine +4.0 | Actual Corzine +3.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 28-30 | 3,750LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +7.0 | Actual Gore +0.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 28-30 | 1,243LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Carnahan +2.0 | Actual Carnahan +2.1 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 28-30 | 956LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Abraham +1.0 | Actual Stabenow +1.6 | Difference 2.6 |
| Oct 28-30 | 1,536LV | Senate (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Feinstein +10.0 | Actual Feinstein +19.3 | Difference 9.3 |
| Oct 28-30 | 967LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +3.0 | Actual Gore +4.2 | Difference 7.2 |
| Oct 28-30 | 1,243LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +5.0 | Actual Bush +3.3 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 28-30 | 956LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Gore +5.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 28-30 | 1,536LV | President (CA) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +3.0 | Actual Gore +11.8 | Difference 8.8 |
| Oct 28-30 | 967LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Santorum +18.0 | Actual Santorum +6.9 | Difference 11.1 |
| Oct 27-29 | 722LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Frist +26.0 | Actual Frist +32.9 | Difference 6.9 |
| Oct 27-29 | 722LV | President (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +1.0 | Actual Bush +3.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 25-27 | 696LV | President (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +7.0 | Actual Gore +16.3 | Difference 9.3 |
| Oct 25-27 | 696LV | Senate (MD) General election | IVR | Poll Sarbanes +20.0 | Actual Sarbanes +26.5 | Difference 6.5 |
| Oct 24-26 | 3,750LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +4.0 | Actual Gore +0.5 | Difference 3.5 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | Senate (VT) General election | IVR | Poll Jeffords +42.0 | Actual Jeffords +40.2 | Difference 1.8 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | Governor (VT) General election | IVR | Poll Dean +7.0 | Actual Dean +12.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 26 | 1,000LV | President (VT) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +6.0 | Actual Gore +10.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 24-26 | 864LV | Senate (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Nelson +4.0 | Actual Nelson +4.9 | Difference 0.9 |
| Oct 24-26 | 864LV | President (FL) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +1.0 | Actual Bush +0.0 | Difference 1.0 |
| Oct 23-25 | 1,100LV | Senate (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Allen +8.0 | Actual Allen +4.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 23-25 | 1,100LV | President (VA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +12.0 | Actual Bush +8.0 | Difference 4.0 |
| Oct 24 | 918LV | Senate (UT) General election | IVR | Poll Hatch +37.0 | Actual Hatch +34.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 24 | 918LV | President (UT) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +38.0 | Actual Bush +40.5 | Difference 2.5 |
| Oct 22-24 | 929LV | Senate (OH) General election | IVR | Poll DeWine +26.0 | Actual DeWine +24.1 | Difference 1.9 |
| Oct 22-24 | 817LV | Senate (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Ensign +17.0 | Actual Ensign +15.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 22-24 | 929LV | President (OH) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +9.0 | Actual Bush +3.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 22-24 | 817LV | President (NV) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +12.0 | Actual Bush +3.6 | Difference 8.4 |
| Oct 22-24 | 880LV | President (IL) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +4.0 | Actual Gore +12.0 | Difference 8.0 |
| Oct 24 | 918LV | Governor (UT) General election | IVR | Poll Leavitt +18.0 | Actual Leavitt +13.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 21-23 | 3,750LV | House (National) General election | IVR | Poll Republicans +1.9 | Actual Republicans +0.4 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 23 | 1,072LV | Senate (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Ashcroft +3.0 | Actual Carnahan +2.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 21-23 | 781LV | Senate (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Clinton +3.0 | Actual Clinton +12.3 | Difference 9.3 |
| Oct 21-23 | 1,548LV | Senate (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Snowe +39.0 | Actual Snowe +37.9 | Difference 1.1 |
| Oct 21-23 | 1,029LV | Senate (GA) Special jungle primary | IVR | Poll Miller +17.0 | Actual Miller +20.4 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 21-23 | 781LV | President (NY) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +11.0 | Actual Gore +25.0 | Difference 14.0 |
| Oct 21-23 | 1,548LV | President (ME) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Gore +5.1 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 21-23 | 1,029LV | President (GA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +10.0 | Actual Bush +11.7 | Difference 1.7 |
| Oct 23 | 1,072LV | Governor (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Talent +2.0 | Actual Holden +0.9 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 23 | 1,072LV | President (MO) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Bush +3.3 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 21-23 | 3,750LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +6.0 | Actual Gore +0.5 | Difference 5.5 |
| Oct 20-22 | 839LV | President (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +4.0 | Actual Bush +3.9 | Difference 0.1 |
| Oct 20-22 | 1,352LV | President (OR) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +5.0 | Actual Gore +0.4 | Difference 5.4 |
| Oct 22 | 1,338LV | Governor (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Shaheen +5.0 | Actual Shaheen +5.0 | Difference 0.0 |
| Oct 20-22 | 944LV | President (KY) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +9.0 | Actual Bush +15.1 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 22 | 1,338LV | President (NH) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +8.0 | Actual Bush +1.3 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 20-22 | 610LV | President (AZ) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +12.0 | Actual Bush +6.3 | Difference 5.7 |
| Oct 20-22 | 890LV | President (ID) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +38.0 | Actual Bush +39.5 | Difference 1.5 |
| Oct 20-22 | 839LV | Senate (TN) General election | IVR | Poll Frist +29.0 | Actual Frist +32.9 | Difference 3.9 |
| Oct 21 | 1,258LV | Governor (ND) General election | IVR | Poll Hoeven +6.0 | Actual Hoeven +10.1 | Difference 4.1 |
| Oct 21 | 1,258LV | President (ND) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +15.0 | Actual Bush +27.6 | Difference 12.6 |
| Oct 21 | 1,258LV | Senate (ND) General election | IVR | Poll Conrad +23.0 | Actual Conrad +22.7 | Difference 0.3 |
| Oct 18-20 | 802LV | Senate (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Chafee +17.0 | Actual Chafee +15.7 | Difference 1.3 |
| Oct 18-20 | 802LV | President (RI) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +19.0 | Actual Gore +29.1 | Difference 10.1 |
| Oct 18-20 | 733LV | President (LA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +7.0 | Actual Bush +7.7 | Difference 0.7 |
| Oct 17-19 | 626LV | President (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Even | Actual Gore +5.1 | Difference 5.1 |
| Oct 19 | 968LV | Senate (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Burns +10.0 | Actual Burns +3.3 | Difference 6.7 |
| Oct 19 | 968LV | Governor (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Martz +13.0 | Actual Martz +3.9 | Difference 9.1 |
| Oct 19 | 968LV | President (MT) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +28.0 | Actual Bush +25.1 | Difference 2.9 |
| Oct 17-19 | 1,043LV | Senate (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Santorum +13.0 | Actual Santorum +6.9 | Difference 6.1 |
| Oct 17-19 | 626LV | Senate (MI) General election | IVR | Poll Abraham +19.0 | Actual Stabenow +1.6 | Difference 20.6 |
| Oct 17-19 | 3,750LV | President (National) General election | IVR | Poll Gore +5.0 | Actual Gore +0.5 | Difference 4.5 |
| Oct 17-19 | 1,043LV | President (PA) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +1.0 | Actual Gore +4.2 | Difference 5.2 |
| Oct 18 | 1,036LV | President (WV) General election | IVR | Poll Bush +2.0 | Actual Bush +6.3 | Difference 4.3 |
| Oct 18 | 1,036LV | Senate (WV) General election | IVR | Poll Byrd +61.0 | Actual Byrd +57.6 | Difference 3.4 |
| Oct 18 | 1,036LV | Governor (WV) General election | IVR | Poll Wise +6.0 | Actual Wise +2.9 | Difference 3.1 |
| Feb 14-16 | 600LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Bush +12.0 | Actual Bush +11.5 | Difference 0.5 |
| Feb 1-3 | 600LV | President (SC) Republican primary | IVR | Poll Bush +1.0 | Actual Bush +11.5 | Difference 10.5 |
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