UPDATED Mar. 13, 2023, at 3:53 PM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

B/C

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling

Polls analyzed	17
Races called correctly	88%
Most recent cycle	2021
Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper	Yes
Other names

What are pollster ratings?

How accurate are the polls from Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2021

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-27	901RV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Murphy +8.0	Actual Murphy +3.2	Difference 4.8

2020

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 18-24	872LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Booker +30.0	Actual Booker +16.3	Difference 13.7
Oct 18-24	872LV	President (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden +24.0	Actual Biden +15.9	Difference 8.1

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 12-19	496LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Menendez +5.0	Actual Menendez +11.2	Difference 6.2

2013

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-Nov 2	535LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Christie +36.0	Actual Christie +22.1	Difference 13.9
Oct 7-13	513LV	Senate (NJ) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Booker +22.0	Actual Booker +10.9	Difference 11.1

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-24	292LV	House (NJ-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Adler +1.0	Actual Runyan +2.7	Difference 3.7

2009

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 15-20	583LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corzine +3.0	Actual Christie +3.6	Difference 6.6

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 29-31	500LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Menendez +4.0	Actual Menendez +16.0	Difference 12.0

2005

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-5	724LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corzine +6.0	Actual Corzine +10.4	Difference 4.4

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-29	740LV	President (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +4.0	Actual Kerry +6.7	Difference 2.7
Oct 14-17	661LV	President (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry +13.0	Actual Kerry +6.7	Difference 6.3

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-31	458LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lautenberg +12.0	Actual Lautenberg +9.9	Difference 2.1
Oct 13-17	600LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lautenberg +5.0	Actual Lautenberg +9.9	Difference 4.9

2001

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 2	745LV	Governor (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll McGreevey +17.0	Actual McGreevey +14.8	Difference 2.2

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-26	432LV	Senate (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Corzine +10.0	Actual Corzine +3.0	Difference 7.0
Oct 23-26	432LV	President (NJ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gore +12.0	Actual Gore +15.8	Difference 3.8

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How this works

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more about our methodology»

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton and Dhrumil Mehta. Copy editing by Andrew Mangan. Visual editing by Christopher Groskopf. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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