Polls analyzed | 55 |
Races called correctly | 87% |
Most recent cycle | 2020 |
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper) | Yes |
How accurate are the polls from Siena College?
2020
Key
A = Adults
RV = Registered voters
V = Voters
LV = Likely voters
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 20-22 | 558LV | House (NY-24) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Katko (R) +10.2 | Difference 10.2 |
2018
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 28-Nov 1 | 641LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +13.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +23.4 | Difference 10.4 |
Oct 28-Nov 1 | 641LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +23.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +34.0 | Difference 11.0 |
Oct 18-22 | 500LV | House (NY-24) General election | Live Phone | Poll Katko (R) +14.0 | Actual Katko (R) +5.3 | Difference 8.7 |
Oct 15-18 | 501LV | House (NY-22) General election | Live Phone | Poll Brindisi (D) +1.0 | Actual Brindisi (D) +1.8 | Difference 0.8 |
2016
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 3-4 | 617LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +42.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +42.6 | Difference 0.6 |
Nov 3-4 | 617LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +17.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +22.5 | Difference 5.5 |
Nov 1-3 | 605LV | House (NY-19) General election | Live Phone | Poll Faso (R) +6.0 | Actual Faso (R) +8.1 | Difference 2.1 |
Nov 1-2 | 643LV | House (NY-22) General election | Live Phone | Poll Tenney (R) +4.0 | Actual Tenney (R) +5.4 | Difference 1.4 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 614LV | House (NY-3) General election | Live Phone | Poll Suozzi (D) +7.0 | Actual Suozzi (D) +6.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Oct 27-31 | 607LV | House (NY-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Zeldin (R) +21.0 | Actual Zeldin (R) +16.4 | Difference 4.6 |
Oct 18-19 | 673LV | House (NY-24) General election | Live Phone | Poll Katko (R) +23.0 | Actual Katko (R) +21.1 | Difference 1.9 |
Apr 6-11 | 538LV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +10.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +16.1 | Difference 6.1 |
Apr 6-11 | 469LV | President (NY) Republican primary | Live Phone | Poll Trump (R) +23.0 | Actual Trump (R) +35.1 | Difference 12.1 |
2014
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26-29 | 670LV | House (NY-1) General election | Live Phone | Poll Zeldin (R) +5.0 | Actual Zeldin (R) +8.9 | Difference 3.9 |
Oct 26-28 | 713LV | House (NY-11) General election | Live Phone | Poll Grimm (R) +19.0 | Actual Grimm (R) +12.8 | Difference 6.2 |
Oct 24-27 | 682LV | House (NY-18) General election | Live Phone | Poll Maloney (D) +5.0 | Actual Maloney (D) +1.9 | Difference 3.1 |
Oct 22-24 | 704LV | House (NY-24) General election | Live Phone | Poll Katko (R) +10.0 | Actual Katko (R) +19.2 | Difference 9.2 |
Oct 22-24 | 727LV | House (NY-19) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gibson (R) +23.0 | Actual Gibson (R) +29.0 | Difference 6.0 |
Oct 20-22 | 670LV | House (NY-21) General election | Live Phone | Poll Stefanik (R) +18.0 | Actual Stefanik (R) +21.3 | Difference 3.3 |
Oct 16-20 | 628LV | House (NY-4) General election | Live Phone | Poll Rice (D) +10.0 | Actual Rice (D) +5.7 | Difference 4.3 |
Oct 16-20 | 748LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +21.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +14.0 | Difference 7.0 |
2012
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 31-Nov 2 | 670LV | House (NY-24) General election | Live Phone | Poll Even | Actual Maffei (D) +5.5 | Difference 5.5 |
Oct 31-Nov 1 | 636LV | House (NY-27) General election | Live Phone | Poll Collins (R) +1.0 | Actual Collins (R) +1.6 | Difference 0.6 |
Oct 29-30 | 629LV | House (NY-21) General election | Live Phone | Poll Owens (D) +1.0 | Actual Owens (D) +2.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Oct 29-30 | 624LV | House (NY-25) General election | Live Phone | Poll Slaughter (D) +10.0 | Actual Slaughter (D) +14.8 | Difference 4.8 |
Oct 27-28 | 649LV | House (NY-19) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gibson (R) +5.0 | Actual Gibson (R) +5.7 | Difference 0.7 |
Oct 27-28 | 627LV | House (NY-11) General election | Live Phone | Poll Grimm (R) +18.0 | Actual Grimm (R) +5.4 | Difference 12.6 |
Oct 22-24 | 750LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +43.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +45.8 | Difference 2.8 |
Oct 22-24 | 750LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +24.0 | Actual Obama (D) +28.2 | Difference 4.2 |
Oct 16-17 | 615LV | House (NY-18) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hayworth (R) +7.0 | Actual Maloney (D) +3.9 | Difference 10.9 |
2011
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 6-8 | 886LV | House (NY-9) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Turner (R) +6.0 | Actual Turner (R) +5.2 | Difference 0.8 |
May 18-20 | 639LV | House (NY-26) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Hochul (D) +4.0 | Actual Hochul (D) +5.0 | Difference 1.0 |
2010
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +32.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 2.1 |
Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +25.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 4.3 |
Oct 27-30 | 603LV | Senate (NY) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +20.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 7.8 |
Oct 23-26 | 623LV | House (NY-23) General election | Live Phone | Poll Owens (D) +3.0 | Actual Owens (D) +1.2 | Difference 1.8 |
Oct 23-26 | 651LV | House (NY-19) General election | Live Phone | Poll Hall (D) +1.0 | Actual Hayworth (R) +5.4 | Difference 6.4 |
Oct 23-25 | 676LV | House (NY-20) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gibson (R) +9.0 | Actual Gibson (R) +9.7 | Difference 0.7 |
Oct 23-25 | 632LV | House (NY-24) General election | Live Phone | Poll Arcuri (D) +5.0 | Actual Hanna (R) +6.2 | Difference 11.2 |
Oct 14-18 | 647LV | Senate (NY) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +29.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8 | Difference 1.2 |
Oct 14-18 | 647LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Cuomo (D) +37.0 | Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3 | Difference 7.7 |
Oct 14-18 | 647LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Schumer (D) +39.0 | Actual Schumer (D) +34.1 | Difference 4.9 |
2009
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1 | 606LV | House (NY-23) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Hoffman (C) +5.0 | Actual Owens (D) +2.4 | Difference 7.4 |
Oct 27-29 | 704LV | House (NY-23) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Owens (D) +1.0 | Actual Owens (D) +2.4 | Difference 1.4 |
Mar 25-26 | 917LV | House (NY-20) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Murphy (D) +4.0 | Actual Murphy (D) +0.5 | Difference 3.5 |
Mar 9-10 | 712LV | House (NY-20) Special election | Live Phone | Poll Tedisco (R) +4.0 | Actual Murphy (D) +0.5 | Difference 4.5 |
2008
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19-21 | 721LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Obama (D) +31.0 | Actual Obama (D) +26.9 | Difference 4.1 |
Jan 14-17 | 311RV | President (NY) Democratic primary | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +25.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +17.0 | Difference 8.0 |
2006
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1-2 | 628LV | House (NY-20) General election | Live Phone | Poll Gillibrand (D) +3.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +6.2 | Difference 3.2 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 500LV | Senate (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Clinton (D) +37.0 | Actual Clinton (D) +36.0 | Difference 1.0 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 | 500LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Spitzer (D) +45.0 | Actual Spitzer (D) +40.8 | Difference 4.2 |
Oct 16-17 | 628LV | House (NY-20) General election | Live Phone | Poll Sweeney (R) +14.0 | Actual Gillibrand (D) +6.2 | Difference 20.2 |
2004
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 25-28 | 1,062LV | President (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Kerry (D) +15.0 | Actual Kerry (D) +18.3 | Difference 3.3 |
2002
Dates | Sample | Race | Methodology | Poll margin | Election margin | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 17 | 1,210LV | Governor (NY) General election | Live Phone | Poll Pataki (R) +19.0 | Actual Pataki (R) +15.9 | Difference 3.1 |
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