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PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

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Siena College

A

Polls analyzed	55
Races called correctly	87%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	Yes

How accurate are the polls from Siena College?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 20-22	558LV	House (NY-24) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Katko (R) +10.2	Difference 10.2

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 28-Nov 1	641LV	Governor (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cuomo (D) +13.0	Actual Cuomo (D) +23.4	Difference 10.4
Oct 28-Nov 1	641LV	Senate (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gillibrand (D) +23.0	Actual Gillibrand (D) +34.0	Difference 11.0
Oct 18-22	500LV	House (NY-24) General election	Live Phone	Poll Katko (R) +14.0	Actual Katko (R) +5.3	Difference 8.7
Oct 15-18	501LV	House (NY-22) General election	Live Phone	Poll Brindisi (D) +1.0	Actual Brindisi (D) +1.8	Difference 0.8

2016

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 3-4	617LV	Senate (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Schumer (D) +42.0	Actual Schumer (D) +42.6	Difference 0.6
Nov 3-4	617LV	President (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +17.0	Actual Clinton (D) +22.5	Difference 5.5
Nov 1-3	605LV	House (NY-19) General election	Live Phone	Poll Faso (R) +6.0	Actual Faso (R) +8.1	Difference 2.1
Nov 1-2	643LV	House (NY-22) General election	Live Phone	Poll Tenney (R) +4.0	Actual Tenney (R) +5.4	Difference 1.4
Oct 30-Nov 1	614LV	House (NY-3) General election	Live Phone	Poll Suozzi (D) +7.0	Actual Suozzi (D) +6.0	Difference 1.0
Oct 27-31	607LV	House (NY-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Zeldin (R) +21.0	Actual Zeldin (R) +16.4	Difference 4.6
Oct 18-19	673LV	House (NY-24) General election	Live Phone	Poll Katko (R) +23.0	Actual Katko (R) +21.1	Difference 1.9
Apr 6-11	538LV	President (NY) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +10.0	Actual Clinton (D) +16.1	Difference 6.1
Apr 6-11	469LV	President (NY) Republican primary	Live Phone	Poll Trump (R) +23.0	Actual Trump (R) +35.1	Difference 12.1

2014

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 26-29	670LV	House (NY-1) General election	Live Phone	Poll Zeldin (R) +5.0	Actual Zeldin (R) +8.9	Difference 3.9
Oct 26-28	713LV	House (NY-11) General election	Live Phone	Poll Grimm (R) +19.0	Actual Grimm (R) +12.8	Difference 6.2
Oct 24-27	682LV	House (NY-18) General election	Live Phone	Poll Maloney (D) +5.0	Actual Maloney (D) +1.9	Difference 3.1
Oct 22-24	704LV	House (NY-24) General election	Live Phone	Poll Katko (R) +10.0	Actual Katko (R) +19.2	Difference 9.2
Oct 22-24	727LV	House (NY-19) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gibson (R) +23.0	Actual Gibson (R) +29.0	Difference 6.0
Oct 20-22	670LV	House (NY-21) General election	Live Phone	Poll Stefanik (R) +18.0	Actual Stefanik (R) +21.3	Difference 3.3
Oct 16-20	628LV	House (NY-4) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rice (D) +10.0	Actual Rice (D) +5.7	Difference 4.3
Oct 16-20	748LV	Governor (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cuomo (D) +21.0	Actual Cuomo (D) +14.0	Difference 7.0

2012

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 31-Nov 2	670LV	House (NY-24) General election	Live Phone	Poll Even	Actual Maffei (D) +5.5	Difference 5.5
Oct 31-Nov 1	636LV	House (NY-27) General election	Live Phone	Poll Collins (R) +1.0	Actual Collins (R) +1.6	Difference 0.6
Oct 29-30	629LV	House (NY-21) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (D) +1.0	Actual Owens (D) +2.0	Difference 1.0
Oct 29-30	624LV	House (NY-25) General election	Live Phone	Poll Slaughter (D) +10.0	Actual Slaughter (D) +14.8	Difference 4.8
Oct 27-28	649LV	House (NY-19) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gibson (R) +5.0	Actual Gibson (R) +5.7	Difference 0.7
Oct 27-28	627LV	House (NY-11) General election	Live Phone	Poll Grimm (R) +18.0	Actual Grimm (R) +5.4	Difference 12.6
Oct 22-24	750LV	Senate (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gillibrand (D) +43.0	Actual Gillibrand (D) +45.8	Difference 2.8
Oct 22-24	750LV	President (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +24.0	Actual Obama (D) +28.2	Difference 4.2
Oct 16-17	615LV	House (NY-18) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hayworth (R) +7.0	Actual Maloney (D) +3.9	Difference 10.9

2011

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Sep 6-8	886LV	House (NY-9) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Turner (R) +6.0	Actual Turner (R) +5.2	Difference 0.8
May 18-20	639LV	House (NY-26) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Hochul (D) +4.0	Actual Hochul (D) +5.0	Difference 1.0

2010

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 27-30	603LV	Senate (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Schumer (D) +32.0	Actual Schumer (D) +34.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 27-30	603LV	Governor (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cuomo (D) +25.0	Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3	Difference 4.3
Oct 27-30	603LV	Senate (NY) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Gillibrand (D) +20.0	Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8	Difference 7.8
Oct 23-26	623LV	House (NY-23) General election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (D) +3.0	Actual Owens (D) +1.2	Difference 1.8
Oct 23-26	651LV	House (NY-19) General election	Live Phone	Poll Hall (D) +1.0	Actual Hayworth (R) +5.4	Difference 6.4
Oct 23-25	676LV	House (NY-20) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gibson (R) +9.0	Actual Gibson (R) +9.7	Difference 0.7
Oct 23-25	632LV	House (NY-24) General election	Live Phone	Poll Arcuri (D) +5.0	Actual Hanna (R) +6.2	Difference 11.2
Oct 14-18	647LV	Senate (NY) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Gillibrand (D) +29.0	Actual Gillibrand (D) +27.8	Difference 1.2
Oct 14-18	647LV	Governor (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cuomo (D) +37.0	Actual Cuomo (D) +29.3	Difference 7.7
Oct 14-18	647LV	Senate (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Schumer (D) +39.0	Actual Schumer (D) +34.1	Difference 4.9

2009

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1	606LV	House (NY-23) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Hoffman (C) +5.0	Actual Owens (D) +2.4	Difference 7.4
Oct 27-29	704LV	House (NY-23) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Owens (D) +1.0	Actual Owens (D) +2.4	Difference 1.4
Mar 25-26	917LV	House (NY-20) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Murphy (D) +4.0	Actual Murphy (D) +0.5	Difference 3.5
Mar 9-10	712LV	House (NY-20) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Tedisco (R) +4.0	Actual Murphy (D) +0.5	Difference 4.5

2008

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 19-21	721LV	President (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Obama (D) +31.0	Actual Obama (D) +26.9	Difference 4.1
Jan 14-17	311RV	President (NY) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +25.0	Actual Clinton (D) +17.0	Difference 8.0

2006

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-2	628LV	House (NY-20) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gillibrand (D) +3.0	Actual Gillibrand (D) +6.2	Difference 3.2
Oct 30-Nov 1	500LV	Senate (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Clinton (D) +37.0	Actual Clinton (D) +36.0	Difference 1.0
Oct 30-Nov 1	500LV	Governor (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Spitzer (D) +45.0	Actual Spitzer (D) +40.8	Difference 4.2
Oct 16-17	628LV	House (NY-20) General election	Live Phone	Poll Sweeney (R) +14.0	Actual Gillibrand (D) +6.2	Difference 20.2

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 25-28	1,062LV	President (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Kerry (D) +15.0	Actual Kerry (D) +18.3	Difference 3.3

2002

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 17	1,210LV	Governor (NY) General election	Live Phone	Poll Pataki (R) +19.0	Actual Pataki (R) +15.9	Difference 3.1

Show all

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

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Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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