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PUBLISHED Mar. 25, 2021, at 10:00 AM

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings

Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each polling organization’s polls.

Read more Download the data See the latest polls

SSRS

C

Polls analyzed	30
Races called correctly	60%
Most recent cycle	2020
Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)	Yes

How accurate are the polls from SSRS?

Polls conducted within 21 days of an election (based on the poll’s median date) are used to determine the pollster’s grade.

2020

Key

A = Adults

RV = Registered voters

V = Voters

LV = Likely voters

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 23-30	901LV	Governor (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cooper (D) +10.0	Actual Cooper (D) +4.5	Difference 5.5
Oct 23-30	901LV	Senate (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Cunningham (D) +3.0	Actual Tillis (R) +1.7	Difference 4.7
Oct 23-30	907LV	Senate (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Peters (D) +12.0	Actual Peters (D) +1.7	Difference 10.3
Oct 23-30	865LV	Senate (AZ) Special election	Live Phone	Poll Kelly (D) +7.0	Actual Kelly (D) +2.3	Difference 4.7
Oct 23-30	873LV	President (WI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +8.0	Actual Biden (D) +0.6	Difference 7.4
Oct 23-30	901LV	President (NC) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +6.0	Actual Trump (R) +1.3	Difference 7.3
Oct 23-30	907LV	President (MI) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +12.0	Actual Biden (D) +2.8	Difference 9.2
Oct 23-30	865LV	President (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +4.0	Actual Biden (D) +0.3	Difference 3.7
Oct 23-26	886LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Candidate (D) +12.0	Actual Candidate (D) +3.1	Difference 8.9
Oct 23-26	886LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +12.0	Actual Biden (D) +4.5	Difference 7.5
Oct 15-20	843LV	President (PA) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +10.0	Actual Biden (D) +1.2	Difference 8.8
Oct 15-20	847LV	President (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Biden (D) +4.0	Actual Trump (R) +3.4	Difference 7.4
Feb 22-26	387LV	President (TX) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Sanders (D) +9.0	Actual Biden (D) +4.7	Difference 13.7
Feb 22-26	488LV	President (CA) Democratic primary	Live Phone	Poll Sanders (D) +22.0	Actual Sanders (D) +8.1	Difference 13.9

2018

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-3	1,151LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Candidate (D) +13.0	Actual Candidate (D) +9.9	Difference 3.1
Oct 24-29	764LV	Governor (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Lee (R) +10.0	Actual Lee (R) +21.0	Difference 11.0
Oct 24-29	622LV	Governor (NV) General election	Live Phone	Poll Sisolak (D) +1.0	Actual Sisolak (D) +4.1	Difference 3.1
Oct 24-29	781LV	Governor (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gillum (D) +1.0	Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4	Difference 1.4
Oct 24-29	702LV	Governor (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Ducey (R) +7.0	Actual Ducey (R) +14.2	Difference 7.2
Oct 24-29	764LV	Senate (TN) General election	Live Phone	Poll Blackburn (R) +4.0	Actual Blackburn (R) +10.8	Difference 6.8
Oct 24-29	622LV	Senate (NV) General election	Live Phone	Poll Rosen (D) +3.0	Actual Rosen (D) +5.0	Difference 2.0
Oct 24-29	781LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Nelson (D) +2.0	Actual Scott (R) +0.1	Difference 2.1
Oct 24-29	702LV	Senate (AZ) General election	Live Phone	Poll Sinema (D) +4.0	Actual Sinema (D) +2.3	Difference 1.7
Oct 16-20	759LV	Governor (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Gillum (D) +12.0	Actual DeSantis (R) +0.4	Difference 12.4
Oct 16-20	759LV	Senate (FL) General election	Live Phone	Poll Nelson (D) +5.0	Actual Scott (R) +0.1	Difference 5.1

2004

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 22-26	741LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +1.0	Actual Bush (R) +2.5	Difference 1.5

2000

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Nov 1-5	1,103LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +2.0	Actual Gore (D) +0.5	Difference 2.5
Oct 25-29	1,103LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +3.0	Actual Gore (D) +0.5	Difference 3.5
Oct 18-22	653LV	President (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Bush (R) +2.0	Actual Gore (D) +0.5	Difference 2.5

1998

Dates	Sample	Race	Methodology	Poll margin	Election margin	Difference
Oct 21-25	600LV	House (National) General election	Live Phone	Poll Candidate (D) +5.0	Actual Candidate (R) +0.9	Difference 5.9

Show all

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster’s rating. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Read more »

Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub.

Design and development by Elena Mejía and Aaron Bycoffe. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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